Estimating the COVID-19 spread through real-time population mobility patterns: surveillance in Low- and Middle- income countries (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.22999 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Stefanos Tyrovolas ◽

Iago Giné-Vázquez ◽

Daniel Fernández ◽

Mariathi Morena ◽

Ai Koyanagi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Real Time ◽

Latin American ◽

Space Time ◽

Population Mobility ◽

Mobility Patterns ◽

African Countries ◽

Control Policies ◽

Middle Income ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Time Scan

BACKGROUND On January 30, 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) declared the current novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a public health emergency of international concern and later characterized it as a pandemic. Since then the virus has also rapidly spread among Latin American, Caribbean and African countries. OBJECTIVE The first aim of this study was to identify new emerging COVID-19 clusters over time and in space in Latin American, Caribbean, and African regions [mostly low and middle-income countries (LMICs)], using a prospective space-time scan measurement approach. The second aim was to assess the impact of real-time population mobility patterns between January 21st to May 18th, under the implemented government interventions, measurements and policy restrictions, on COVID-19 spread, among those regions and globally. METHODS We created a global COVID-19 database merging WHO daily case reports (of 218 countries, regions and territories) with other measures such as population density, country income levels for January 21st to May 15th, 2020. A score of government policy interventions was created ranging from “light”, “intermediate”, and “high”, to “very high” interventions. Prospective space-time scan statistic methods were applied in five time periods between January to May 2020 and a stepped-wedged regression mixed model analysis was used. RESULTS We found that COVID-19 emerging clusters within these five periods of time grew from 7 emerging clusters to 28 by mid-May. We also detected various increasing and decreasing relative risk estimates of COVID-19 spread among Latin American, Caribbean and African countries within the period of analysis. Globally, as well as regionally (Latin American, Caribbean and Africa), population mobility to parks and similar leisure areas during all the implemented control policies were related with accelerated COVID-19 spread. For countries in Africa, population mobility for work reasons during high and very high levels of implemented control policies were related with increased virus spread. CONCLUSIONS Prospective space-time scan is a measurement approach that LMICs countries could easily use to detect emerging clusters in a timely manner and implement specific control policies and interventions to slow down COVID-19 transmission. In addition, real time population mobility obtained from crowdsourced digital data could be useful for current and future targeted public health and mitigation policies among Latin American, Caribbean and African countries as well as globally.

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Leveraging a Cloud-Based Critical Care Registry for COVID-19 Pandemic Surveillance and Research in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.21939 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Madiha Hashmi ◽

Abi Beane ◽

Srinivas Murthy ◽

Arjen M Dondorp ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Critical Care ◽

Intensive Care ◽

Real Time ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Common Data Model ◽

Middle Income ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Severe Acute Respiratory Infection ◽

Low And Middle Income

UNSTRUCTURED The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed limitations in real-time surveillance needed for responsive health care action in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The Pakistan Registry for Intensive CarE (PRICE) was adapted to enable International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC)–compliant real-time reporting of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI). The cloud-based common data model and standardized nomenclature of the registry platform ensure interoperability of data and reporting between regional and global stakeholders. Inbuilt analytics enable stakeholders to visualize individual and aggregate epidemiological, clinical, and operational data in real time. The PRICE system operates in 5 of 7 administrative regions of Pakistan. The same platform supports acute and critical care registries in eleven countries in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. ISARIC-compliant SARI reporting was successfully implemented by leveraging the existing PRICE infrastructure in all 49 member intensive care units (ICUs), enabling clinicians, operational leads, and established stakeholders with responsibilities for coordinating the pandemic response to access real-time information on suspected and confirmed COVID-19 cases (N=592 as of May 2020) via secure registry portals. ICU occupancy rates, use of ICU resources, mechanical ventilation, renal replacement therapy, and ICU outcomes were reported through registry dashboards. This information has facilitated coordination of critical care resources, health care worker training, and discussions on treatment strategies. The PRICE network is now being recruited to international multicenter clinical trials regarding COVID-19 management, leveraging the registry platform. Systematic and standardized reporting of SARI is feasible in LMICs. Existing registry platforms can be adapted for pandemic research, surveillance, and resource planning.

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Leveraging a Cloud-Based Critical Care Registry for COVID-19 Pandemic Surveillance and Research in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

JMIR Public Health and Surveillance ◽

10.2196/21939 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (4) ◽

pp. e21939

Author(s):

◽

Madiha Hashmi ◽

Abi Beane ◽

Srinivas Murthy ◽

Arjen M Dondorp ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Critical Care ◽

Intensive Care ◽

Real Time ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Common Data Model ◽

Middle Income ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Severe Acute Respiratory Infection ◽

Low And Middle Income

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed limitations in real-time surveillance needed for responsive health care action in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The Pakistan Registry for Intensive CarE (PRICE) was adapted to enable International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC)–compliant real-time reporting of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI). The cloud-based common data model and standardized nomenclature of the registry platform ensure interoperability of data and reporting between regional and global stakeholders. Inbuilt analytics enable stakeholders to visualize individual and aggregate epidemiological, clinical, and operational data in real time. The PRICE system operates in 5 of 7 administrative regions of Pakistan. The same platform supports acute and critical care registries in eleven countries in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. ISARIC-compliant SARI reporting was successfully implemented by leveraging the existing PRICE infrastructure in all 49 member intensive care units (ICUs), enabling clinicians, operational leads, and established stakeholders with responsibilities for coordinating the pandemic response to access real-time information on suspected and confirmed COVID-19 cases (N=592 as of May 2020) via secure registry portals. ICU occupancy rates, use of ICU resources, mechanical ventilation, renal replacement therapy, and ICU outcomes were reported through registry dashboards. This information has facilitated coordination of critical care resources, health care worker training, and discussions on treatment strategies. The PRICE network is now being recruited to international multicenter clinical trials regarding COVID-19 management, leveraging the registry platform. Systematic and standardized reporting of SARI is feasible in LMICs. Existing registry platforms can be adapted for pandemic research, surveillance, and resource planning.

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Implementing a Childhood Cancer Outcomes Surveillance System Within a Population-Based Cancer Registry

Journal of Global Oncology ◽

10.1200/jgo.17.00193 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 1-11 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Oscar Ramirez ◽

Paula Aristizabal ◽

Alia Zaidi ◽

Raul C. Ribeiro ◽

Luis E. Bravo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Overall Survival ◽

Childhood Cancer ◽

Real Time ◽

Cancer Registry ◽

Surveillance System ◽

Population Based ◽

Cancer Outcomes ◽

Middle Income ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Low And Middle Income

Purpose Approximately 80% of cases of childhood cancer occur in low- and middle-income countries and are associated with high mortality rates. Assessing outcomes is essential for designing effective strategies to improve outcomes equally worldwide. We implemented a real-time surveillance system, VIGICANCER, embedded in a population-based cancer registry (PBCR) to assess childhood cancer outcomes. Methods VIGICANCER was established in 2009 as an integral part of Cali’s PBCR to collect real-time data on outcomes of patients (age < 19 years) with a new diagnosis of cancer treated in pediatric oncology units in Cali, Colombia. Baseline and follow-up data (death, relapse, treatment abandonment, second neoplasms) were collected from medical records, hospital discharge logs, pathology reports, death certificates, and the National Public Health Insurance database. A quality assurance process was implemented for the system. Results From 2009 to 2013, data from 1,242 patients were included in VIGICANCER: 32% of patients were younger than 5 years, 55% were male, and 15% were Afro-descendants. International Classification of Childhood Cancer group I diagnoses predominated in all age groups except children younger than 1 year old, in whom CNS tumors predominated. Five-year overall survival for all cancers was 51.7% (95% CI, 47.9% to 55.4%) for children (< 15 years), and 39.4% (95% CI, 29.8% to 50.5%) for adolescents (15 to 18.9 years). Five-year overall survival for acute lymphoblastic leukemia was 55.6% (95% CI, 48.5% to 62.2%). Conclusion Our study demonstrates the feasibility of implementing a real-time childhood cancer outcomes surveillance system embedded in a PBCR that can guide interventions to improve clinical outcomes in low- and middle-income countries.

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