scholarly journals Regional Infoveillance of COVID-19 Case Rates: Analysis of Search-Engine Query Patterns

10.2196/19483 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. e19483
Author(s):  
Henry C Cousins ◽  
Clara C Cousins ◽  
Alon Harris ◽  
Louis R Pasquale
Keyword(s):  
Search Engine ◽  
Explanatory Variable ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
National Level ◽  
New York Times ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Case Rate ◽  
Query Patterns

Background Timely allocation of medical resources for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) requires early detection of regional outbreaks. Internet browsing data may predict case outbreaks in local populations that are yet to be confirmed. Objective We investigated whether search-engine query patterns can help to predict COVID-19 case rates at the state and metropolitan area levels in the United States. Methods We used regional confirmed case data from the New York Times and Google Trends results from 50 states and 166 county-based designated market areas (DMA). We identified search terms whose activity precedes and correlates with confirmed case rates at the national level. We used univariate regression to construct a composite explanatory variable based on best-fitting search queries offset by temporal lags. We measured the raw and z-transformed Pearson correlation and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the explanatory variable with out-of-sample case rate data at the state and DMA levels. Results Predictions were highly correlated with confirmed case rates at the state (mean r=0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.81; median RMSE 1.27, IQR 1.48) and DMA levels (mean r=0.51, 95% CI 0.39-0.61; median RMSE 4.38, IQR 1.80), using search data available up to 10 days prior to confirmed case rates. They fit case-rate activity in 49 of 50 states and in 103 of 166 DMA at a significance level of .05. Conclusions Identifiable patterns in search query activity may help to predict emerging regional outbreaks of COVID-19, although they remain vulnerable to stochastic changes in search intensity.

scholarly journals Regional Infoveillance of COVID-19 Case Rates: Analysis of Search-Engine Query Patterns (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry C Cousins ◽  
Clara C Cousins ◽  
Alon Harris ◽  
Louis R Pasquale
Keyword(s):  
Search Engine ◽  
Explanatory Variable ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
National Level ◽  
New York Times ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Case Rate ◽  
Query Patterns

BACKGROUND Timely allocation of medical resources for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) requires early detection of regional outbreaks. Internet browsing data may predict case outbreaks in local populations that are yet to be confirmed. OBJECTIVE We investigated whether search-engine query patterns can help to predict COVID-19 case rates at the state and metropolitan area levels in the United States. METHODS We used regional confirmed case data from the New York Times and Google Trends results from 50 states and 166 county-based designated market areas (DMA). We identified search terms whose activity precedes and correlates with confirmed case rates at the national level. We used univariate regression to construct a composite explanatory variable based on best-fitting search queries offset by temporal lags. We measured the raw and z-transformed Pearson correlation and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the explanatory variable with out-of-sample case rate data at the state and DMA levels. RESULTS Predictions were highly correlated with confirmed case rates at the state (mean <i>r</i>=0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.81; median RMSE 1.27, IQR 1.48) and DMA levels (mean <i>r</i>=0.51, 95% CI 0.39-0.61; median RMSE 4.38, IQR 1.80), using search data available up to 10 days prior to confirmed case rates. They fit case-rate activity in 49 of 50 states and in 103 of 166 DMA at a significance level of .05. CONCLUSIONS Identifiable patterns in search query activity may help to predict emerging regional outbreaks of COVID-19, although they remain vulnerable to stochastic changes in search intensity.

scholarly journals More Depression-Related Public Concern After the Suicide of a Pop Star in China: Evidence From the Online Big Data Platform

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong-Zhang Yu ◽  
Tian Fu ◽  
Jia-Nan Zhou ◽  
Ping Ke ◽  
Yun-Xia Wang
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Search Engine ◽  
Practical Knowledge ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Strong Positive Correlation ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Compulsive Disorder ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Query Patterns

Background: In China, we have seen dramatic increases in public concern over depression and mental health after the suicide of some famous persons. The objective of this study is to investigate the changes of search-engine query patterns to monitor this phenomenon based on the tragic suicide of a young Chinese pop star, Kimi Qiao.Methods: The daily search volume for depression was retrieved from both the Baidu Index (BDI) and the Sina MicroBlog Index (SMI). Besides, the daily BDI for suicide, schizophrenia, obsessive-compulsive disorder, common cold, stomach cancer, and liver cancer were collected for comparison. According to the time of Qiao's suicide, all data were divided into two periods (i.e., Period One from 1 September 2015 to 31 August 2016 while Period Two ranged from 1 October 2016 to 30 September 2017). The paired t-test was used to compare the differences in search volumes between two periods. The Pearson correlation analysis was used to estimate correlations between the BDI and SMI for depression.Results: The average BDI for depression, BDI for suicide, and SMI for depression in Period Two were significantly higher than in Period One (p &lt; 0.05). There was a strong positive correlation between the BDI and SMI for depression (r = 0.97, p &lt; 0.001). And no significant difference in BDI for other diseases between the two periods was found.Conclusions: The changes of search-engine query patterns indicated that the celebrity's suicide might be able to improve the netizens' concern about depression in China. The study suggests publishing more practical knowledge and advice on depression through the Internet and social media, to improve the public's mental health literacy and help people to cope with their depressive symptoms appropriately.

scholarly journals Disparity in the quality of COVID-19 data reporting across India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Varun Vasudevan ◽  
Abeynaya Gnanasekaran ◽  
Varsha Sankar ◽  
Siddarth A. Vasudevan ◽  
James Zou
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
National Level ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The State ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Quality Of Data ◽  
Data Reporting ◽  
Union Territory

Background. Transparent and accessible reporting of COVID-19 data is critical for public health efforts. Each state and union territory (UT) of India has its own mechanism for reporting COVID-19 data, and the quality of their reporting has not been systematically evaluated. We present a comprehensive assessment of the quality of COVID-19 data reporting done by the Indian state and union territory governments. This assessment informs the public health efforts in India and serves as a guideline for pandemic data reporting by other governments. Methods. We designed a semi-quantitative framework to assess the quality of COVID-19 data reporting done by the states and union territories of India. This framework captures four key aspects of public health data reporting - availability, accessibility, granularity, and privacy. We then used this framework to calculate a COVID-19 Data Reporting Score (CDRS, ranging from 0 to 1) for 29 states based on the quality of COVID-19 data reporting done by the state during the two-week period from 19 May to 1 June, 2020. States that reported less than 10 total confirmed cases as of May 18 were excluded from the study. Findings. Our results indicate a strong disparity in the quality of COVID-19 data reporting done by the state governments in India. CDRS varies from 0.61 (good) in Karnataka to 0.0 (poor) in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, with a median value of 0.26. Only ten states provide a visual representation of the trend in COVID-19 data. Ten states do not report any data stratified by age, gender, comorbidities or districts. In addition, we identify that Punjab and Chandigarh compromised the privacy of individuals under quarantine by releasing their personally identifiable information on the official websites. Across the states, the CDRS is positively associated with the state's sustainable development index for good health and well-being (Pearson correlation: r=0.630, p=0.0003). Interpretation. The disparity in CDRS across states highlights three important findings at the national, state, and individual level. At the national level, it shows the lack of a unified framework for reporting COVID-19 data in India, and highlights the need for a central agency to monitor or audit the quality of data reporting done by the states. Without a unified framework, it is difficult to aggregate the data from different states, gain insights from them, and coordinate an effective nationwide response to the pandemic. Moreover, it reflects the inadequacy in coordination or sharing of resources among the states in India. Coordination among states is particularly important as more people start moving across states in the coming months. The disparate reporting score also reflects inequality in individual access to public health information and privacy protection based on the state of residence. Funding. J.Z. is supported by NSF CCF 1763191, NIH R21 MD012867-01, NIH P30AG059307, NIH U01MH098953 and grants from the Silicon Valley Foundation and the Chan-Zuckerberg Initiative.

scholarly journals The Heterogenous Effect of COVID-19 on Liver Transplantation Activity and Waitlist Mortality in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Yuan ◽  
Omar Haque ◽  
Taylor M. Coe ◽  
James F. Markmann
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Liver Transplantation ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
New York Times ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Case Count ◽  
Waitlist Mortality

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic curtailed the practice of liver transplantation (LT), which lacks a temporizing life-saving measure for candidates on the waitlist.Aims/Objectives: The objective of this research was to (1) determine the effect of decreased LT activity on waitlist mortality in the United States and (2) assess if this effect was homogenous across the country.Methods: We conducted a retrospective, cross-sectional analysis utilizing United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) data assessing 3,600 liver transplants from January 1, 2020 to June 2, 2020. COVID-19 incidence data was taken directly from the New York Times case count.Results: During weeks 10 to 15 of 2020, there was a 38% reduction in the number of LTs performed nationally, which was temporally associated with a transient 97% increase in waitlist mortality. When stratified by UNOS region, waitlist mortality was inversely correlated with the number of LTs performed in all 11 regions. However, the range of the association strength (r) was large (Pearson correlation coefficient range: −0.73 to −0.01).Conclusion: Interruptions in LT activity due to COVID-19 were associated with rapid increases in waitlist mortality, and these effects were unevenly distributed among candidates across the United States. The transplant community can utilize these results to mitigate inequalities in transplant allocation between UNOS regions and advocate for the uninterrupted practice of LT should another pandemic surge or COVID-19 variant arise.

Perceptual basemaps reloaded: The role basemaps play in eliciting perceptions

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-166
Author(s):  
Paulina Bounds ◽  
Charles J. Sutherland
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
The Other ◽  
Striking Difference ◽  
Perceptual Dialectology ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Perceptual Maps

This article describes the influence of various basemaps in Perceptual Dialectology, on the national and state levels. The 180 perceptual maps of the United States and Tennessee were divided into six types of basemaps; tabulated results show that basemaps play a different role on the national and state level. On the national level, basemaps that have features reminiscent of boundaries (state lines or interstates) bias the respondents’ answers. On the state level, on the other hand, the map features do not seem to influence the results in any discernible way: at times the informants seemingly go against the details present on the basemap. This striking difference indicates that, though the respondents rely on basemap details at the national level, where they may not have enough experience with the whole country, they don’t pay much attention to the state-level basemap details as they follow their own more detailed ideas about perceptions.

Distance Education and the Role of the State: A Sweden/USA Perspective

2005 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 285-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Hansson ◽  
Paul Mihailidis ◽  
Carl Holmberg
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
United States ◽  
Distance Education ◽  
Federal Policy ◽  
National Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
State And Local

This study aims to comparatively explore the role of the state (federal policy) in distance-education initiatives in the higher education communities of Sweden and the United States. In a globalized context, education institutes now have the capabilities to provide education and educational resources more efficiently and to a wide-ranging and diverse audience. Within the education sector and distance education, the role of the state and federal policy becomes increasingly important, in terms of how distance-education platforms are developed and implemented in institutions of higher education. The first section of this article provides an overview of the United States and Sweden's current higher education and distance-education landscapes, focusing on the role of the state and federal policy with respect to the funding and overall aims of distance education. The development of distance education in Sweden is highly related to political goals and policies, the top down/domestic/‘inside’ approach. The governing body dictates the funding and policy for distance education, and implementation is left to the university body. In the United States, the landscape differs in that no one federal institution provides direct funding or unified guidelines for developing distance education, but universities are left to their own devices and capabilities for implementation. In Sweden, high ambitions and goals are set at the national level, but the educational organizations are changing only slowly. The pressures on the education organizations are high because of steadily decreasing funding and fewer and fewer staff in relation to students. In the United States, education functions primarily as a state and local responsibility. In conclusion, the article aims to exploit the differences between the two countries' role of the state (federal policy) in distance-education policy, and present a middle ground which would be most balanced for distance education, entailing some federal supervision with the allowance for a certain level of autonomy in regards to development, implementation, funding and longevity.

Mapping Influence: Partisan Networks across the United States, 2000 to 2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Reuning
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Critical Component ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
State Party ◽  
Over Time

The parties as networks approach has become a critical component of understanding American political parties. Research on it has so far mainly focused on variation in the placement of candidates within a network at the national level. This is in part due to a lack of data on state-level party networks. In this article, I fill that gap by developing state party networks for 47 states from 2000 to 2016 using candidate donation data. To do this, I introduce a backboning network analysis method not yet used in political science to infer relationships among donors at the state level. Finally, I validate these state networks and then show how parties have varied across states and over time. The networks developed here will be made publicly available for future research. Being able to quantify variation in party network structure will be important for understanding variation in party–policy linkages at the state level.

Medigap: Should Private Insurers Pay Public Rates and Who Should Make the Decision?

2004 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-83
Author(s):  
Edwin Caldie
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Healthcare Cost ◽  
Healthcare Costs ◽  
Cost Allocation ◽  
Senior Citizens ◽  
National Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Allocation Policy ◽  
Simple Question

The most complex issues in the field of healthcare policy can often be reduced to the simple question “who is going to pay?” Legislatures, whether at the state or national level, are generally the entity responsible for allocating healthcare costs. When a legislative body acts to allocate healthcare costs, it simultaneously amends a society-wide, interwoven web of regulation and incentives that is steeped in decades of tradition. Further, and perhaps more importantly, healthcare cost allocation affects each individual in our society on an intimate level. Medicare is one of the most controversial elements in this grand scheme of cost allocation policy.Medicare serves approximately 37 million senior citizens in the United States. Of course, Medicare benefits are limited. With minor exceptions, Medicare fully covers only the first ninety days of hospitalization for an eligible citizen. After such period, a Medicare-eligible citizen may draw upon a non-renewable lifetime reserve, which provides Medicare hospitalization coverage for an additional sixty days.

Dance in America

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Van Dyke
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gender Equity ◽  
National Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
National Endowment ◽  
Financial Security ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
The Arts ◽  
Concert Dance

A variety of data show that men now lead the concert dance field in the United States. Not only do they receive jobs as performers and choreographers out of proportion to their representation as dance students, they also more readily achieve acclaim and financial security. Men stand out among dance artists because there is a paucity of them, giving them a professional advantage. This chapter examines funding at the state and national level, including Guggenheim Fellowships, MacArthur Grants, and National Endowment for the Arts Fellowships to see to whom funding goes. Various awards are also scrutinized for gender equity, including the Dance Magazine Award, Capezio Dance Award, Kennedy Center Honors Award, and the National Medal of the Arts. In addition, teaching and choreographing opportunities for men and women are compared.

What can sociologists of globalization and development learn from Nicos Poulantzas?

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 284-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason C. Mueller
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Economy ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
Power Relations ◽  
Social Relation ◽  
National Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Nation States

Several decades ago scholars studying the state, political economy, and power relations were obliged to engage with the ideas of Nicos Poulantzas. Today, his ideas are hard to find in most sociological theorizing—particularly in the United States. This trend is unfortunate, but not unavoidable. This article proposes that we reconsider the insights of Poulantzas as well as the growing community of scholars building a neo-Poulantzasian approach for studies on international politics, economics, and the state. I discuss Poulantzas’s prescient but often neglected work on the internationalization of capital and nation-states, along with his theoretical approach to studying the state as a social relation. After highlighting their significance I focus on several neo-Poulantzasian analytical concepts that have extended his insights in creative ways. I argue that Poulantzas and contemporary neo-Poulantzasians offer ideas that are ripe for exploration, elaboration, and incorporation into multiple burgeoning and interrelated areas of inquiry for sociology and beyond. These include studies on the political-economy of development, studies on internationalization and its effect on national-level governance, and studies of the state in the (semi-) periphery. If successful, this article will provoke scholars to engage in innovative transdisciplinary research grounded in the unique and underexplored theories of Nicos Poulantzas.

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