scholarly journals General Model for COVID-19 Spreading With Consideration of Intercity Migration, Insufficient Testing, and Active Intervention: Modeling Study of Pandemic Progression in Japan and the United States

10.2196/18880 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. e18880
Author(s):  
Choujun Zhan ◽  
Chi Kong Tse ◽  
Zhikang Lai ◽  
Xiaoyun Chen ◽  
Mingshen Mo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Federal District ◽  
The United States ◽  
Personal Hygiene ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Active Intervention ◽  
Intercity Travel ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Realistic Prediction ◽  
Different Levels

Background The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) began to spread in mid-December 2019 from Wuhan, China, to most provinces in China and over 200 other countries through an active travel network. Limited by the ability of the country or city to perform tests, the officially reported number of confirmed cases is expected to be much smaller than the true number of infected cases. Objective This study aims to develop a new susceptible-exposed-infected-confirmed-removed (SEICR) model for predicting the spreading progression of COVID-19 with consideration of intercity travel and the difference between the number of confirmed cases and actual infected cases, and to apply the model to provide a realistic prediction for the United States and Japan under different scenarios of active intervention. Methods The model introduces a new state variable corresponding to the actual number of infected cases, integrates intercity travel data to track the movement of exposed and infected individuals among cities, and allows different levels of active intervention to be considered so that a realistic prediction of the number of infected individuals can be performed. Moreover, the model generates future progression profiles for different levels of intervention by setting the parameters relative to the values found from the data fitting. Results By fitting the model with the data of the COVID-19 infection cases and the intercity travel data for Japan (January 15 to March 20, 2020) and the United States (February 20 to March 20, 2020), model parameters were found and then used to predict the pandemic progression in 47 regions of Japan and 50 states (plus a federal district) in the United States. The model revealed that, as of March 19, 2020, the number of infected individuals in Japan and the United States could be 20-fold and 5-fold as many as the number of confirmed cases, respectively. The results showed that, without tightening the implementation of active intervention, Japan and the United States will see about 6.55% and 18.2% of the population eventually infected, respectively, and with a drastic 10-fold elevated active intervention, the number of people eventually infected can be reduced by up to 95% in Japan and 70% in the United States. Conclusions The new SEICR model has revealed the effectiveness of active intervention for controlling the spread of COVID-19. Stepping up active intervention would be more effective for Japan, and raising the level of public vigilance in maintaining personal hygiene and social distancing is comparatively more important for the United States.

scholarly journals General Model for COVID-19 Spreading With Consideration of Intercity Migration, Insufficient Testing, and Active Intervention: Modeling Study of Pandemic Progression in Japan and the United States (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Choujun Zhan ◽  
Chi Kong Tse ◽  
Zhikang Lai ◽  
Xiaoyun Chen ◽  
Mingshen Mo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Federal District ◽  
The United States ◽  
Personal Hygiene ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Active Intervention ◽  
Intercity Travel ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Realistic Prediction ◽  
Different Levels

BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) began to spread in mid-December 2019 from Wuhan, China, to most provinces in China and over 200 other countries through an active travel network. Limited by the ability of the country or city to perform tests, the officially reported number of confirmed cases is expected to be much smaller than the true number of infected cases. OBJECTIVE This study aims to develop a new susceptible-exposed-infected-confirmed-removed (SEICR) model for predicting the spreading progression of COVID-19 with consideration of intercity travel and the difference between the number of confirmed cases and actual infected cases, and to apply the model to provide a realistic prediction for the United States and Japan under different scenarios of active intervention. METHODS The model introduces a new state variable corresponding to the actual number of infected cases, integrates intercity travel data to track the movement of exposed and infected individuals among cities, and allows different levels of active intervention to be considered so that a realistic prediction of the number of infected individuals can be performed. Moreover, the model generates future progression profiles for different levels of intervention by setting the parameters relative to the values found from the data fitting. RESULTS By fitting the model with the data of the COVID-19 infection cases and the intercity travel data for Japan (January 15 to March 20, 2020) and the United States (February 20 to March 20, 2020), model parameters were found and then used to predict the pandemic progression in 47 regions of Japan and 50 states (plus a federal district) in the United States. The model revealed that, as of March 19, 2020, the number of infected individuals in Japan and the United States could be 20-fold and 5-fold as many as the number of confirmed cases, respectively. The results showed that, without tightening the implementation of active intervention, Japan and the United States will see about 6.55% and 18.2% of the population eventually infected, respectively, and with a drastic 10-fold elevated active intervention, the number of people eventually infected can be reduced by up to 95% in Japan and 70% in the United States. CONCLUSIONS The new SEICR model has revealed the effectiveness of active intervention for controlling the spread of COVID-19. Stepping up active intervention would be more effective for Japan, and raising the level of public vigilance in maintaining personal hygiene and social distancing is comparatively more important for the United States.

scholarly journals General Model for COVID-19 Spreading with Consideration of Intercity Migration, Insufficient Testing and Active Intervention: Application to Study of Pandemic Progression in Japan and USA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Choujun Zhan ◽  
Chi K. Tse ◽  
Zhikang Lai ◽  
Xiaoyun Chen ◽  
Mingshen Mo
Keyword(s):  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Personal Hygiene ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Active Intervention ◽  
Intercity Travel ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Realistic Prediction ◽  
Different Levels

AbstractA new Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Confirmed-Removed (SEICR) model with consideration of intercity travel and active intervention is proposed for predicting the spreading progression of the 2019 New Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). The model takes into account the known or reported number of infected cases being fewer than the actual number of infected individuals due to insufficient testing. The model integrates intercity travel data to track the movement of exposed and infected individuals among cities, and allows different levels of active intervention to be considered so that realistic prediction of the number of infected individuals can be performed. The data of the COVID-19 infection cases and the intercity travel data for Japan (January 15 to March 20, 2020) and the USA (February 20 to March 20, 2020) are used to illustrate the prediction of the pandemic progression in 47 regions of Japan and 50 states (plus a federal district) in the USA. By fitting the model with the data, we reveal that, as of March 19, 2020, the number of infected individuals in Japan and the USA could be twenty-fold and five-fold as many as the number of confirmed cases, respectively. Moreover, the model generates future progression profiles for different levels of intervention by setting the parameters relative to the values found from the data fitting. Results show that without tightening the implementation of active intervention, Japan and the USA will see about 6.55% and 18.2% of the population eventually infected, and with drastic ten-fold elevated active intervention, the number of people eventually infected can be reduced by up to 95% in Japan and 70% in the USA. Finally, an assessment of the relative effectiveness of active intervention and personal protective measures is discussed. With a highly vigilant public maintaining personal hygiene and exercising strict protective measures, the percentage of population infected can be further reduced to 0.23% in Japan and 2.7% in the USA.

scholarly journals The Effect of Massachusetts' Health Reform on Employer-Sponsored Insurance Premiums

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
John F Cogan ◽  
R. Glenn Hubbard ◽  
Daniel Kessler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Health Reform ◽  
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey ◽  
Private Insurance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medical Expenditure ◽  
Insurance Premiums ◽  
Reform Plan ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Cost

In this paper, we use publicly available data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey - Insurance Component (MEPS-IC) to investigate the effect of Massachusetts' health reform plan on employer-sponsored insurance premiums. We tabulate premium growth for private-sector employers in Massachusetts and the United States as a whole for 2004 - 2008. We estimate the effect of the plan as the difference in premium growth between Massachusetts and the United States between 2006 and 2008—that is, before versus after the plan—over and above the difference in premium growth for 2004 to 2006. We find that health reform in Massachusetts increased single-coverage employer-sponsored insurance premiums by about 6 percent, or $262. Although our research design has important limitations, it does suggest that policy makers should be concerned about the consequences of health reform for the cost of private insurance.

scholarly journals La contrebande des produits du tabac au Canada entre 1985 et 1994 et le cas particulier du Québec

Criminologie ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Alain
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
The United States ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Mass Consumption ◽  
Cigarette Taxes ◽  
Geographical Factors ◽  
The World ◽  
The Difference

The professional smuggling of mass consumption products develops when demand for a product is not adequately fulfilled by the legitimate market. The difficulties encountered in supplying are, in most contemporary cases, caused by real rarity of the desired product. For other cases, however, the rarity is largely virtual in that government taxes aimed at the product in question lead to increasing the product's price to a prohibitive end. This was the case with cigarettes in Canada between 1985 and 1994. Before both, the federal and provincial, governments decided to drastically decrease cigarette taxes in February 1994, the price for a pack of cigarettes was five to six times higher than the same product in the United States. This article begins with a brief review of the contribution made by economists in regard to contemporary smuggling. Focus will be aimed at common characteristics of the smuggling phenomenon across the world. Elements which are more particular to the Canadian smuggling situation will be identified as well. While the difference in the price of cigarettes between Canada and the United States would seem to be the undeniable driving force behind the development of smuggling activities at the countries ' border, one key question remains unexplained. Why was the volume of contraband unequally distributed across Canada even though the price of cigarettes remained largely consistent throughout all provinces? The level of organization of smuggling networks was much higher in Eastern Canada, and particularly in Quebec, than it was in the western provinces. It is argued that the reasons for this are not only due to price, but to a series of political, historical, and geographical factors which allowed cigarette smugglers to function better in Quebec than in the rest of the country.

Equal Opportunity in a Pluralistic Society

1987 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
James W. Nickel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Religious Pluralism ◽  
Equal Opportunity ◽  
Religious Diversity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pluralistic Society ◽  
Self Image ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The U.S

The United States has never been culturally or religiously homogeneous, but its diversity has greatly increased over the last century. Although the U.S. was first a multicultural nation through conquest and enslavement, its present diversity is due equally to immigration. In this paper I try to explain the difference it makes for one area of thought and policy – equal opportunity – if we incorporate cultural and religious pluralism into our national self-image. Formulating and implementing a policy of equal opportunity is more difficult in diverse, pluralistic countries than it is in homogeneous ones. My focus is cultural and religious diversity in the United States, but my conclusions will apply to many other countries – including ones whose pluralism is found more in religion than in culture.

scholarly journals The Effect of Partisan Representation at Different Levels of Government on Satisfaction with Democracy in the United States

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie VanDusky-Allen ◽  
Stephen M. Utych
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
State Government ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Satisfaction With Democracy ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
Respective State ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Analyze Data

AbstractIn this paper, we analyze how variations in partisan representation across different levels of government influence Americans’ satisfaction with the democracy in the United States. We conduct two survey experiments and analyze data from the 2016 American National Election Study postelection survey. We find that Americans are the most satisfied with democracy when their most preferred party controls both the federal and their respective state governments. However, we also find that even if an individual’s least preferred party only controls one level of government, they are still more satisfied with democracy than if their most preferred party controls no levels of government. These findings suggest that competition in elections across both the national and state government, where winning and losing alternates between the two parties, may have positive outcomes for attitudes toward democracy.

scholarly journals An analysis of income differentials by marital status

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Regina Madalozzo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Marital Status ◽  
The United States ◽  
Married Women ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Income Differentials ◽  
Marriage Premium ◽  
Unmarried Cohabitation ◽  
Marriage Penalty ◽  
The Difference

Unmarried cohabitation has become a more frequently observed phenomenon over the last three decades, and not only in the United States. The objective of this work is to examine income differentials between married women and those who remain single or cohabitate. The empirical literature shows that, while the marriage premium is verified in different studies for men, the result for women is not conclusive. The main innovation of my study is the existence of controls for selection. In this study, we have two sources of selectivity: into the labor force and into a marital status category. The switching regressions and the Oaxaca decomposition results demonstrate the existence of a significant penalty for marriage. Correcting for both types of selection, the difference in wages varies between 49% and 53%, when married women are compared with cohabiting ones, and favors non-married women. This result points to the existence of a marriage penalty.

Who Wins and Who Loses in the Provincial Courts of Appeal? A Statistical Analysis, 1920–1990

1994 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter McCormick
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Data Base ◽  
The United States ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Party Capability ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Appeal Courts ◽  
Different Levels

AbstractGiven the visibility and obvious importance of judicial power in the age of the Charter, it is important to develop the conceptual vocabulary for desribing and assessing this power. One such concept that has been applied to the study of appeal courts in the United States and Great Britain is “party capability”, a theory which suggests that different types of litigant will enjoy different levels of success as both appellant and respondent. Using a data base derived from the reported decisions of the provincial courts of appeal for the second and seventh year of each decade since the 1920s, this article applies party capability theory to the performance of the highest courts of the ten provinces; comparisons are attempted across regions and across time periods, as well as with the findings of similar studies of American and British courts.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Mental Health Outcomes in the United States and Italy at Different Levels of Cumulative COVID-19 Prevalence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony D Mancini ◽  
Gabriele Prati
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ptsd Symptoms ◽  
General Distress ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Low Prevalence ◽  
Different Levels

How does the prevalence of COVID-19 impact people’s mental health? In a preregistered study (N = 857), we sought to answer this question by comparing demographically matched samples in four regions in the United States and Italy with different levels of cumulative COVID-19 prevalence. No main effect of prevalence emerged. Rather, prevalence region had opposite effects, depending on the country. New York City participants (high prevalence) reported more general distress, PTSD symptoms, and COVID-19 worry than San Francisco (low prevalence). Conversely, Campania participants (low prevalence) reported more general distress, PTSD symptoms, and COVID-19 worry than Lombardy (high prevalence). Consistent with these patterns, COVID-19 worry was more strongly linked with general distress and PTSD symptoms in New York than San Francisco, whereas COVID-19 worry was more strongly linked with PTSD in Campania than Lombardy. In exploratory analyses, media exposure predicted and mapped on to geographic variation in mental health outcomes.

scholarly journals INTERVENSI KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP INVESTASI PORTOFOLIO: KASUS INDONESIA DAN AMERIKA SERIKAT

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Nanda Alfarina ◽  
Hasdi Aimon
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Mechanism Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

This study aims to determine the effect of monetary policy measured by the central bank’s policy rate (X1) on portfolio investment (Y) in Indonesia and United States in the long run. The data used are secondary data seouced from SEKI BI, FRED The FEd, coinmarketcap.com, and investing.com, with the VECM (Vector Error Correction Mechanism) analysis methode. The study show The study shows the differences between the results that occur in Indonesia and the United States. The policy interest rate has a significant positive effect on portfolio investment in the long run in Indonesia, while in the United States the interest rate in the long run has a significant negative effect on portfolio investment. The difference in research results between the two countries shows the need for different treatment for monetary authorities in encouraging portfolio investment 

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