scholarly journals The relationship between electricity demand and the business cycle, 1969--1985

1986 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship

The Relationship Between Gender and Promotion Over the Business Cycle: Does Firm Size Matter?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Saridakis ◽  
Priscila Ferreira ◽  
Anne‐Marie Mohammed ◽  
Susan Marlow
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Size Matter ◽  
The Relationship

scholarly journals Credit procyclicality and financial regulation in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 467-478
Author(s):  
James Bernstein ◽  
Leroi Raputsoana ◽  
Eric Schaling
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Banking Supervision ◽  
Expansion Phase ◽  
Reference Guide ◽  
Common Reference ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship

This study assesses the behaviour of credit extension over the business cycle in South Africa for the period 2000 to 2012. This is motivated by the proposal of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to look at credit extension over the business cycle as a reference guide for implementing countercyclical capital buffers for financial institutions. The study finds that credit extension in South increases during the trough phase, while the relationship between credit extension and the business cycle becomes insignificant during the peak phase. The study also finds that credit extension decreases during the expansion phase, while it increases during the contraction phase. Thus we do not find any evidence of procyclical behaviour of credit extension in South Africa, and the latter should therefore be used with caution and not as a mechanical rule based common reference guide for countercyclical capital buffers for financial institutions. 

scholarly journals Protection and the Business Cycle

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Bagwell ◽  
Robert W. Staiger
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Trade Volume ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Theoretical Support ◽  
Empirical Regularities ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Liberal Trade ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Empirical studies have repeatedly documented the countercyclical nature of trade barriers. In this paper, we propose a simple theoretical framework that is consistent with this and other empirical regularities in the relationship between protection and the business cycle. Focusing on self-enforcing trade agreements, we find theoretical support for countercyclical movements in protection levels. The fast growth in trade volume that is associated with a boom phase facilitates the maintenance of more liberal trade policies than can be sustained during a recession phase in which growth is slow. We also find that acyclic increases in the level of trade volume give rise to protection, implying that whether rising imports are met with greater liberalization or increased protection depends on whether they are part of a cyclic upward trend in trade volume or an acyclic increase in import levels.

scholarly journals Bank wholesale funding and credit procyclicality: Evidence from Korea

2013 ◽  
Vol 60 (5) ◽  
pp. 615-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangjun Jeong ◽  
Hueechae Jung
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Marked Effect ◽  
The Other ◽  
Financial Fragility ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Higher Sensitivity

Credit procyclicality has recently been the focus of considerable attention, but what fuels the often excessive credit growth is rarely questioned. We investigate the relationship between the composition of banks? liabilities and their credit procyclicality. After examining the macroeconomic context where banks rely increasingly on wholesale funding (WSF), we estimate the effect of WSF on the banks? credit growth using quarterly panel data for the commercial banks of Korea from 2000 to 2011. We find that a higher sensitivity of banks? WSF to the business cycle leads to an excessive response of credit growth to the business cycle, even with a low share of WSF on bank liabilities. On the other hand, we find that overseas WSF has a more marked effect on credit procyclicality, which may additionally exacerbate the financial fragility of export-led emerging economies.

scholarly journals NEW PERSPECTIVES ON HENRY LUDWELL MOORE’S USE OF HARMONIC ANALYSIS

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Paul Turner ◽  
Justine Wood
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Harmonic Analysis ◽  
Fourier Transformation ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Empirical Economics ◽  
History Of ◽  
Complete Failure ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship

This paper reconsiders the contribution of Henry Ludwell Moore to dynamic economics through the use of harmonic analysis. We show that Moore’s analysis is innovative in its use of the Fourier transformation for the identification of cycles with different periodicities. This enables Moore to identify cycles of longer length with more precision than would be the case for the standard methodology. We are able to replicate the main features of his results and confirm the existence of a rainfall cycle with a periodicity similar to that of the business cycle (eight years). However, we find that the evidence for a longer (thirty-three-year) rainfall cycle is weaker than Moore indicates. We also argue that a central theme of Moore’s analysis—the relationship among rainfall, agricultural productivity, and the business cycle—marks an early precursor of the “real business cycle” approach. George Stigler’s (1962) dismissal of Moore’s work on cycles as “a complete failure” is therefore, in our opinion, unfair. Instead, we argue that, although his work is certainly flawed, it nevertheless deserves a place in both the history of business cycle theory and empirical economics.

Does business cycle heterogeneously impact on banks’ capital buffers, risk and financial stability in BRIC economies?

2020 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 2050032
Author(s):  
Syed Moudud-Ul-Huq ◽  
Md. Nazmul Islam ◽  
Abdul Gaffar Khan ◽  
Md. Rostam Ali ◽  
Tanmay Biswas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
China And India ◽  
Adjustment Speed ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Indian Banks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
India And China

This paper revisited the relationship between capital buffers and risk adjustments by showing the impact of the business cycle. Empirically, we used an unbalanced panel dataset from 426 banks of the BRIC countries (i.e., Brazil, Russia, India, and China) for the period 2007–2016. By using the two-step system GMM (2GMM), this study shows the results as: (i) capital buffers of Russia, India, and China behave counter-cyclically while it is pro-cyclical for Brazilian banks over the business cycle; (ii) in BRIC’s economy, credit risk, and bank financial stability is related to business cycle in counter and pro-cyclical fashion, respectively; (iii) capital buffers adjustment speed is the premier in China and India, shining banks accessibility to capital refill is much easier to Brazil and Russia. The adjustment speed is heterogeneous across countries; and (iv) financial stability in apex for the Chinese, Russian, and Indian banks apart from the Brazilian banks.

scholarly journals Predicting Korea’ business-cycle regimes using OnBid auction data

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 116-133
Author(s):  
Jin Gi Kim ◽  
Hyun-Tak Lee ◽  
Bong-Gyu Jang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Asset Management ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Managers ◽  
Auction Market ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper examines whether the successful bid rate of the OnBid public auction, published by Korea Asset Management Corporation, can identify and forecast the Korea business-cycle expansion and contraction regimes characterized by the OECD reference turning points. We use logistic regression and support vector machine in performing the OECD regime classification and predicting three-month-ahead regime. We find that the OnBid auction rate conveys important information for detecting the coincident and future regimes because this information might be closely related to deleveraging regarding default on debt obligations. This finding suggests that corporate managers and investors could use the auction information to gauge the regime position in their decision-making. This research has an academic significance that reveals the relationship between the auction market and the business-cycle regimes.

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