Regulatory Foundations for Cross-Border Electricity Trading: India

Abstract Flow-based Market Coupling (FBMC) provides welfare gains from cross-border electricity trading by efficiently providing coupling capacity between bidding zones. In the coupled markets of Central Western Europe, common regulations define the FBMC methods, but transmission system operators keep some degrees of freedom in parts of the capacity calculation. Besides, many influencing factors define the flow-based capacity domain, making it difficult to fundamentally model the capacity calculation and to derive reliable forecasts from it. In light of this challenge, the given contribution reports findings from the attempt to model the capacity domain in FBMC by applying Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). As target values, the Maximum Bilateral Exchanges (MAXBEX) have been chosen. Only publicly available data has been used as inputs to make the approach reproducible for any market participant. It is observed that the forecast derived from the ANN yields similar results to a simple carry-forward method for a one-hour forecast, whereas for a longer-term forecast, up to twelve hours ahead, the network outperforms this trivial approach. Nevertheless, the overall low accuracy of the prediction strongly suggests that a more detailed understanding of the structure and evolution of the flow-based capacity domain and its relation to the underlying market and infrastructure characteristics is needed to allow market participants to derive robust forecasts of FMBC parameters.

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Reflections on India’s 2018 Guidelines on Cross Border Electricity Trading Vis-a-vis SAARC versus ASEAN

Hydro Nepal Journal of Water Energy and Environment ◽

10.3126/hn.v24i0.23573 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 24 ◽

pp. 1-5

Author(s):

Santa Bahadur Pun

Keyword(s):

International Relations ◽

South Asians ◽

Trade Agreement ◽

Economic Importance ◽

Framework Agreement ◽

Energy Cooperation ◽

Cross Border ◽

Electricity Trading ◽

Electricity Trade

Despite the 2014 Indo-Nepal Electric Power Trade Agreement and the 2014 SAARC Framework Agreement for Energy Cooperation (Electricity), India issued two Guidelines within two years, one in 2016 and the other in 2018. After discussing the genesis of these two Guidelines, the author attempts to analyze the 2018 Guidelines. With India citing electricity trade as “issues of strategic, national and economic importance”, that was couched into “issues of international relations” in the 2018 Guidelines, this explains why the SAARC Framework Agreement for Energy Cooperation (Electricity) has made no headway at all in the last four years. The SAARC region, home of Buddha, Ashok, Akbar etc. may, perhaps, have to look east to the ASEAN on how electricity trading is done there. Electricity, besides being a strategic tool, is also an economic tool that should be used to uplift the quality of life of hundreds of millions of South Asians mired in deep poverty. Unless India takes the initiative akin to ASEAN, SAARC citizens will continue to wallow in that poverty!

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