scholarly journals Final Report: Modeling coupled ice sheet-ocean interactions in the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and in DOE Earth System Models

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xylar Storm Asay-Davis
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Final Report ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Earth System Models

From the last interglacial to the future – new insights from modeling the last glacial-interglacial cycle in PalMod

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerstin Fieg ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Michael Schulz ◽  
Tatjana Ilyina
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
System Models ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Future ◽  
Fully Coupled ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
The Last Glacial

<p>We present new insights from the project PalMod, which started in 2016 and is envisioned to run for a decade. The modelling initiative PalMod aims at filling the long-standing scientific gaps in our understanding of the dynamics and variability of the climate system during the last glacial-interglacial cycle. One of the grand challenges in this context is to quantify the processes that determine the spectrum of climate variability on timescales that range from seasons to millennia. Climatic processes are intimately coupled across these timescales. Understanding variability at any one timescale requires understanding of the whole spectrum. If we could successfully simulate the spectrum of climate variability during the last glacial cycle in Earth system models, would this enable us to more reliably assess the future climate change? Such simulations are necessary to deduce, for example, if a regime shift in climate variability could occur during the next centuries and millennia in response to global warming. PalMod is specifically designed to enhance our understanding of the Earth system dynamics and its variability on timescales up to the multimillennial with complex Earth System Models.</p><p>The following major goals were achieved up to now:</p><ul><li>Full coupling of atmosphere, ocean and ice-sheet models, enabling investigation of Heinrich Events and bi-stability of the AMOC, and millennial-scale transient climate-ice sheet simulations.</li> <li>Implementation of a coupled ocean and land biogeochemistry enabling simulations with prognostic atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations and including improved representation of methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) in transient deglaciation runs.</li> <li>Systematic comparison of newly compiled proxy data with model simulations.</li> </ul><p>The major goal for the next two years is to set up the fully coupled physical-biogeochemical model which will be tested for three time periods: deglaciation, glacial inception and Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3). This fully coupled model will be eventually used to simulate the complete glacial cycle and project the climate over the next few millennia.</p>

scholarly journals Interactive Photochemistry in Earth System Models to Assess Uncertainty in Ozone and Greenhouse Gases. Final report

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Prather ◽  
Juno Hsu ◽  
Alex Nicolau ◽  
Alex Veidenbaum ◽  
Philip Cameron Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Final Report ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Earth System Models

scholarly journals The evaluation of Earth System Models: discussion summary

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 216-221
Author(s):  
Sönke Zaehle ◽  
Colin Prentice ◽  
Sarah Cornell
Keyword(s):  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Earth System Models

scholarly journals Using field observations to inform thermal hydrology models of permafrost dynamics with ATS (v0.83)

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 3235-3292 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. L. Atchley ◽  
S. L. Painter ◽  
D. R. Harp ◽  
E. T. Coon ◽  
C. J. Wilson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Thermal Response ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Refinement ◽  
System Models ◽  
Developed Surface ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. Climate change is profoundly transforming the carbon-rich Arctic tundra landscape, potentially moving it from a carbon sink to a carbon source by increasing the thickness of soil that thaws on a seasonal basis. However, the modeling capability and precise parameterizations of the physical characteristics needed to estimate projected active layer thickness (ALT) are limited in Earth System Models (ESMs). In particular, discrepancies in spatial scale between field measurements and Earth System Models challenge validation and parameterization of hydrothermal models. A recently developed surface/subsurface model for permafrost thermal hydrology, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), is used in combination with field measurements to calibrate and identify fine scale controls of ALT in ice wedge polygon tundra in Barrow, Alaska. An iterative model refinement procedure that cycles between borehole temperature and snow cover measurements and simulations functions to evaluate and parameterize different model processes necessary to simulate freeze/thaw processes and ALT formation. After model refinement and calibration, reasonable matches between simulated and measured soil temperatures are obtained, with the largest errors occurring during early summer above ice wedges (e.g. troughs). The results suggest that properly constructed and calibrated one-dimensional thermal hydrology models have the potential to provide reasonable representation of the subsurface thermal response and can be used to infer model input parameters and process representations. The models for soil thermal conductivity and snow distribution were found to be the most sensitive process representations. However, information on lateral flow and snowpack evolution might be needed to constrain model representations of surface hydrology and snow depth.

scholarly journals Evolution of the Arabian Sea Upwelling from the Last Millennium to the Future as Simulated by Earth System Models

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 72
Author(s):  
Xing Yi ◽  
Birgit Hünicke ◽  
Eduardo Zorita
Keyword(s):  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Sediment Records ◽  
The Future ◽  
Water Stratification ◽  
Arabian Sea Upwelling ◽  
Earth System Models

Arabian Sea upwelling in the past has been generally studied based on the sediment records. We apply two earth system models and analyze the simulated water vertical velocity to investigate coastal upwelling in the western Arabian Sea over the last millennium. In addition, two models with slightly different configurations are also employed to study the upwelling in the 21st century under the strongest and the weakest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. With a negative long-term trend caused by the orbital forcing of the models, the upwelling over the last millennium is found to be closely correlated with the sea surface temperature, the Indian summer Monsoon and the sediment records. The future upwelling under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario reveals a negative trend, in contrast with the positive trend displayed by the upwelling favorable along-shore winds. Therefore, it is likely that other factors, like water stratification in the upper ocean layers caused by the stronger surface warming, overrides the effect from the upwelling favorable wind. No significant trend is found for the upwelling under the RCP2.6 scenario, which is likely due to a compensation between the opposing effects of the increase in upwelling favorable winds and the water stratification.

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