scholarly journals A Toolkit tot Study Sensitivity of the Geant4 Predictions to the Variations of the Physics Model Parameters

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. L. Genser ◽  
◽  
R. Hatcher ◽  
G. Perdue ◽  
H. Wenzel ◽  
...  
Geophysics ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 77 (2) ◽  
pp. B69-B85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kjartan Rimstad ◽  
Per Avseth ◽  
Henning Omre

Seismic 3D amplitude variation with offset (AVO) data from the Alvheim field in the North Sea are inverted into lithology/fluid classes, elastic properties, and porosity. Lithology/fluid maps over hydrocarbon prospects provide more reliable estimates of gas/oil volumes and improve the decision concerning further reservoir assessments. The Alvheim field is of turbidite origin with complex sand-lobe geometry and appears without clear fluid contacts across the field. The inversion is phrased in a Bayesian setting. The likelihood model contains a convolutional, linearized seismic model and a rock-physics model that capture vertical trends due to increased sand compaction and possible cementation. The likelihood model contains several global model parameters that are considered to be stochastic to adapt the model to the field under study and to include model uncertainty in the uncertainty assessments. The prior model on the lithology/fluid classes is a Markov random field that captures local vertical/horizontal continuity and vertical sorting of fluids. The predictions based on the posterior model are validated by observations in five wells used as blind tests. Hydrocarbon volumes with reliable gas/oil distributions are predicted. The spatial coupling provided by the prior model is crucial for reliable predictions; without the coupling, hydrocarbon volumes are severely underestimated. Depth trends in the rock-physics likelihood model improve the gas versus oil predictions. The porosity predictions reproduce contrasts observed in the wells, and mean square error is reduced by one-third compared to Gauss-linear predictions.


2022 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle T. Spikes ◽  
Mrinal K. Sen

Correlations of rock-physics model inputs are important to know to help design informative prior models within integrated reservoir-characterization workflows. A Bayesian framework is optimal to determine such correlations. Within that framework, we use velocity and porosity measurements on unconsolidated, dry, and clean sands. Three pressure- and three porosity-dependent rock-physics models are applied to the data to examine relationships among the inputs. As with any Bayesian formulation, we define a prior model and calculate the likelihood in order to evaluate the posterior. With relatively few inputs to consider for each rock-physics model, we found that sampling the posterior exhaustively to be convenient. The results of the Bayesian analyses are multivariate histograms that indicate most likely values of the input parameters given the data to which the rock-physics model was fit. When the Bayesian procedure is repeated many times for the same data, but with different prior models, correlations emerged among the input parameters in a rock-physics model. These correlations were not known previously. Implications, for the pressure- and porosity-dependent models examined here, are that these correlations should be utilized when applying these models to other relevant data sets. Furthermore, additional rock-physics models should be examined similarly to determine any potential correlations in their inputs. These correlations can then be taken advantage of in forward and inverse problems posed in reservoir characterization.


2020 ◽  
Vol 223 (1) ◽  
pp. 707-724
Author(s):  
Mohit Ayani ◽  
Dario Grana

SUMMARY We present a statistical rock physics inversion of the elastic and electrical properties to estimate the petrophysical properties and quantify the associated uncertainty. The inversion method combines statistical rock physics modeling with Bayesian inverse theory. The model variables of interest are porosity and fluid saturations. The rock physics model includes the elastic and electrical components and can be applied to the results of seismic and electromagnetic inversion. To describe the non-Gaussian behaviour of the model properties, we adopt non-parametric probability density functions to sample multimodal and skewed distributions of the model variables. Different from machine learning approach, the proposed method is not completely data-driven but is based on a statistical rock physics model to link the model parameters to the data. The proposed method provides pointwise posterior distributions of the porosity and CO2 saturation along with the most-likely models and the associated uncertainty. The method is validated using synthetic and real data acquired for CO2 sequestration studies in different formations: the Rock Springs Uplift in Southwestern Wyoming and the Johansen formation in the North Sea, offshore Norway. The proposed approach is validated under different noise conditions and compared to traditional parametric approaches based on Gaussian assumptions. The results show that the proposed method provides an accurate inversion framework where instead of fitting the relationship between the model and the data, we account for the uncertainty in the rock physics model.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle T. Spikes ◽  
Mrinal K. Sen

Rock-physics models relate rock properties to elastic properties through non-unique relationships and often in the presence of seismic data that contain significant noise. A set of inputs define the rock-physics model, and any errors in that model map directly into uncertainty in target seismic-scale amplitudes, velocities, or inverted impedances. An important aspect of using rock-physics models in this manner is to determine and understand the significance of the inputs into a rock-physics model under consideration. Such analysis enables the design of prior distributions that are informative within a reservoir-characterization formulation. We use the framework of Bayesian analysis to find internal dependencies and correlations among the inputs. This process requires the assignments of prior distributions, and calculation of the likelihood function, whose product is the posterior distribution. The data are well-log data that come from a hydrocarbon-bearing set of sands from the Gulf of Mexico. The rock-physics model selected is the soft-sand model, which is applicable to the data from the reservoir sands. Results from the Bayesian algorithm are multivariate histograms that demonstrate the most frequent values of the inputs given the data. Four analyses are applied to different subsets of the reservoir sands, and each reveals some correlations among certain model inputs. This quantitative approach points out the significance of a singular or joint set of rock-physics model parameters.


2018 ◽  
Vol 1085 ◽  
pp. 042021
Author(s):  
Laura Fields ◽  
Krzysztof Genser ◽  
Robert Hatcher ◽  
Michael Kelsey ◽  
Gabriel Perdue ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 88 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amartya Bhattacharjee ◽  
Anindya Bhaduri ◽  
Ryan C. Hurley ◽  
Lori Graham-Brady

Abstract A micromechanical multi-physics model for ceramics has been recalibrated and used to simulate impact experiments with boron carbide in abaqus. The dominant physical mechanisms in boron carbide have been identified and simulated in the framework of an integrated constitutive model that combines crack growth, amorphization, and granular flow. The integrative model is able to accurately reproduce some of the key cracking patterns of Sphere Indentation experiments and Edge On Impact experiments. Based on this integrative model, linear regression has been used to study the sensitivity of sphere indentation model predictions to the input parameters. The sensitivities are connected to physical mechanisms, and trends in model outputs have been intuitively explored. These results help suggest material modifications that might improve material performance, prioritize calibration experiments for materials-by-design iterations, and identify model parameters that require more in-depth understanding.


2001 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Sjöberg ◽  
Magnus Sverke

Summary: Previous research has identified instrumentality and ideology as important aspects of member attachment to labor unions. The present study evaluated the construct validity of a scale designed to reflect the two dimensions of instrumental and ideological union commitment using a sample of 1170 Swedish blue-collar union members. Longitudinal data were used to test seven propositions referring to the dimensionality, internal consistency reliability, and temporal stability of the scale as well as postulated group differences in union participation to which the scale should be sensitive. Support for the hypothesized factor structure of the scale and for adequate reliabilities of the dimensions was obtained and was also replicated 18 months later. Tests for equality of measurement model parameters and test-retest correlations indicated support for the temporal stability of the scale. In addition, the results were consistent with most of the predicted differences between groups characterized by different patterns of change/stability in union participation status. The study provides strong support for the construct validity of the scale and indicates that it can be used in future theory testing on instrumental and ideological union commitment.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 7141-7151 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Omar ◽  
M. N. Abdul Rani ◽  
M. A. Yunus

Efficient and accurate finite element (FE) modelling of bolted joints is essential for increasing confidence in the investigation of structural vibrations. However, modelling of bolted joints for the investigation is often found to be very challenging. This paper proposes an appropriate FE representation of bolted joints for the prediction of the dynamic behaviour of a bolted joint structure. Two different FE models of the bolted joint structure with two different FE element connectors, which are CBEAM and CBUSH, representing the bolted joints are developed. Modal updating is used to correlate the two FE models with the experimental model. The dynamic behaviour of the two FE models is compared with experimental modal analysis to evaluate and determine the most appropriate FE model of the bolted joint structure. The comparison reveals that the CBUSH element connectors based FE model has a greater capability in representing the bolted joints with 86 percent accuracy and greater efficiency in updating the model parameters. The proposed modelling technique will be useful in the modelling of a complex structure with a large number of bolted joints.


Marketing ZFP ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 33-42
Author(s):  
Thomas Otter

Empirical research in marketing often is, at least in parts, exploratory. The goal of exploratory research, by definition, extends beyond the empirical calibration of parameters in well established models and includes the empirical assessment of different model specifications. In this context researchers often rely on the statistical information about parameters in a given model to learn about likely model structures. An example is the search for the 'true' set of covariates in a regression model based on confidence intervals of regression coefficients. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate and compare different measures of statistical information about model parameters in the context of a generalized linear model: classical confidence intervals, bootstrapped confidence intervals, and Bayesian posterior credible intervals from a model that adapts its dimensionality as a function of the information in the data. I find that inference from the adaptive Bayesian model dominates that based on classical and bootstrapped intervals in a given model.


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