scholarly journals OR14-V-Uncertainty-PD2La Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Safeguards and Nondestructive Assay Final Report

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew D. Nicholson ◽  
Stephen Croft ◽  
Robert Dennis McElroy
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Nuclear Safeguards ◽  
Final Report ◽  
Nondestructive Assay

scholarly journals Practical reliability and uncertainty quantification in complex systems : final report.

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew D. Grace ◽  
James T. Ringland ◽  
Youssef M. Marzouk ◽  
Paul T. Boggs ◽  
Rena M. Zurn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Final Report

scholarly journals Uncertainty Quantification in Application of the Enrichment Meter Principle for Nondestructive Assay of Special Nuclear Material

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Burr ◽  
Stephen Croft ◽  
Ken Jarman
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Nuclear Material ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Assay Method ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
Nondestructive Assay ◽  
Error Bar ◽  
Mass Estimate ◽  
Gamma Spectra

Nondestructive assay (NDA) of special nuclear material (SNM) is used in nonproliferation applications, including identification of SNM at border crossings, and quantifying SNM at safeguarded facilities. No assay method is complete without “error bars,” which provide one widely used way to express confidence in assay results. NDA specialists typically partition total uncertainty into “random” and “systematic” components so that, for example, an error bar can be developed for the SNM mass estimate in one item or for the total SNM mass estimate in multiple items. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NDA has always been important, but greater rigor is needed and achievable using modern statistical methods. To this end, we describe the extent to which the guideline for expressing uncertainty in measurements (GUM) can be used for NDA. Also, we describe possible extensions to the GUM by illustrating UQ challenges in NDA that it does not address, including calibration with errors in predictors, model error, and item-specific biases. A case study is presented using gamma spectra and applying the enrichment meter principle to estimate the235U mass in an item. The case study illustrates how to update the ASTM international standard test method for application of the enrichment meter principle using gamma spectra.

scholarly journals Comprehensive Uncertainty Quantification in Nuclear Safeguards

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Bonner ◽  
T. Burr ◽  
T. Krieger ◽  
K. Martin ◽  
C. Norman
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Nuclear Material ◽  
Nuclear Safeguards ◽  
Calibration Data ◽  
Material Loss ◽  
Uncertainty In Measurement ◽  
Relative Standard ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Main Components ◽  
The Impact

Nuclear safeguards aim to confirm that nuclear materials and activities are used for peaceful purposes. To ensure that States are honoring their safeguards obligations, quantitative conclusions regarding nuclear material inventories and transfers are needed. Statistical analyses used to support these conclusions require uncertainty quantification (UQ), usually by estimating the relative standard deviation (RSD) in random and systematic errors associated with each measurement method. This paper has two main components. First, it reviews why UQ is needed in nuclear safeguards and examines recent efforts to improve both top-down (empirical) UQ and bottom-up (first-principles) UQ for calibration data. Second, simulation is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in measurement error RSDs on estimated nuclear material loss detection probabilities in sequences of measured material balances.

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