The verification and uncertainty quantification of surrogate models used for structural analysis.

Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle and Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatio-temporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using an uncertainty quantification framework. First, the Polynomial Chaos Expansion machinery with Bayesian Compressed Sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5° × 0.5° for 1991–2010. The main methodological advance in this work is the construction of surrogates for the error metric between ELM and the benchmark data, facilitating efficient calibration and avoiding the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for ELM itself. Second, the Sobol index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that in most regions ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multi-model ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.

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Uncertainty Quantification of NOx and CO Emissions in a Swirl-Stabilized Burner

Journal of Engineering for Gas Turbines and Power ◽

10.1115/1.4044204 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 141 (10) ◽

Author(s):

Sajjad Yousefian ◽

Gilles Bourque ◽

Rory F. D. Monaghan

Keyword(s):

Uncertainty Quantification ◽

Probabilistic Modeling ◽

Chemical Reactor ◽

Surrogate Models ◽

Prediction Tool ◽

Computationally Efficient ◽

Modeling Tools ◽

Sensitivity Indices ◽

Reliability Method ◽

Combustion Systems

AbstractUncertainty quantification (UQ) is becoming an essential attribute for development of computational tools in gas turbine combustion systems. Prediction of emissions with a variety of gaseous fuels and uncertain conditions requires probabilistic modeling tools, especially at part load conditions. The aim of this paper was to develop a computationally efficient tool to integrate uncertainty, sensitivity, and reliability analyses of CO and NOx emissions for a practical swirl-stabilized premixed burner. Sampling-based method (SBM), nonintrusive polynomial chaos expansion (NIPCE) based on point collocation method (PCM), Sobol sensitivity indices, and first-order reliability method (FORM) approaches are integrated with a chemical reactor network (CRN) model to develop a UQ-enabled emissions prediction tool. The CRN model consisting of a series of perfectly stirred reactors (PSRs) to model CO and NOx is constructed in Cantera. Surrogate models are developed using NIPCE-PCM approach and compared with the results of CRN model. The surrogate models are then used to perform global sensitivity and reliability analyses. The results show that the surrogate models substantially reduce the required computational costs by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude in comparison with the SBM to calculate sensitivity indices, importance factors and perform reliability analysis. Moreover, the results obtained by the NIPCE-PCM approach are more accurate in comparison with the SBM. Therefore, the developed UQ-enabled emissions prediction tool based on CRN and NIPCE-PCM approaches can be used for practical combustion systems as a reliable and computationally efficient framework to conduct probabilistic modeling of emissions.

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