scholarly journals Assessment of uncertainty in discrete fracture network modeling using probabilistic distribution method

2017 ◽  
Vol 76 (10) ◽  
pp. 2802-2815
Author(s):  
Yaqiang Wei ◽  
Yanhui Dong ◽  
Tian-Chyi J. Yeh ◽  
Xiao Li ◽  
Liheng Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract There have been widespread concerns about solute transport problems in fractured media, e.g. the disposal of high-level radioactive waste in geological fractured rocks. Numerical simulation of particle tracking is gradually being employed to address these issues. Traditional predictions of radioactive waste transport using discrete fracture network (DFN) models often consider one particular realization of the fracture distribution based on fracture statistic features. This significantly underestimates the uncertainty of the risk of radioactive waste deposit evaluation. To adequately assess the uncertainty during the DFN modeling in a potential site for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, this paper utilized the probabilistic distribution method (PDM). The method was applied to evaluate the risk of nuclear waste deposit in Beishan, China. Moreover, the impact of the number of realizations on the simulation results was analyzed. In particular, the differences between the modeling results of one realization and multiple realizations were demonstrated. Probabilistic distributions of 20 realizations at different times were also obtained. The results showed that the employed PDM can be used to describe the ranges of the contaminant particle transport. The high-possibility contaminated areas near the release point were more concentrated than the farther areas after 5E6 days, which was 25,400 m2.

Geophysics ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. B37-B47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sherilyn Williams-Stroud ◽  
Chet Ozgen ◽  
Randall L. Billingsley

The effectiveness of hydraulic fracture stimulation in low-permeability reservoirs was evaluated by mapping microseismic events related to rock fracturing. The geometry of stage by stage event point sets were used to infer fracture orientation, particularly in the case where events line up along an azimuth, or have a planar distribution in three dimensions. Locations of microseismic events may have a higher degree of uncertainty when there is a low signal-to-noise ratio (either due to low magnitude or to propagation effects). Low signal-to-noise events are not as accurately located in the reservoir, or may fall below the detectability limit, so that the extent of fracture stimulated reservoir may be underestimated. In the Bakken Formation of the Williston Basin, we combined geologic analysis with process-based and stochastic fracture modeling to build multiple possible discrete fracture network (DFN) model realizations. We then integrated the geologic model with production data and numerical simulation to evaluate the impact on estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). We tested assumptions used to create the DFN model to determine their impact on dynamic calibration of the simulation model, and their impact on predictions of EUR. Comparison of simulation results, using fracture flow properties generated from two different calibrated DFN scenarios, showed a 16% difference in amount of oil ultimately produced from the well. The amount of produced water was strongly impacted by the geometry of the DFN model. The character of the DFN significantly impacts the relative amounts of fluids produced. Monitoring water cut with production can validate the appropriate DFN scenario, and provide critical information for the optimal method for well production. The results indicated that simulation of enhanced permeability using induced microseismicity to constrain a fracture flow property model is an effective way to evaluate the performance of reservoirs stimulated by hydraulic fracture treatments.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. e0262275
Author(s):  
Stephan Hilpmann ◽  
Miriam Bader ◽  
Robin Steudtner ◽  
Katharina Müller ◽  
Thorsten Stumpf ◽  
...  

The safe disposal of high-level radioactive waste in a deep geological repository is a huge social and technical challenge. So far, one of the less considered factors needed for a long-term risk assessment, is the impact of microorganisms occurring in the different host rocks. Even under the harsh conditions of salt formations different bacterial and archaeal species were found, e. g. Halobacterium sp. GP5 1–1, which has been isolated from a German rock salt sample. The interactions of this archaeon with uranium(VI), one of the radionuclides of major concern for the long-term storage of high-level radioactive waste, were investigated. Different spectroscopic techniques, as well as microscopy, were used to examine the occurring mechanisms on a molecular level leading to a more profound process understanding. Batch experiments with different uranium(VI) concentrations showed that the interaction is not only a simple, but a more complex combination of different processes. With the help of in situ attenuated total reflection Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy the association of uranium(VI) onto carboxylate groups was verified. In addition, time-resolved laser-induced luminescence spectroscopy revealed the formation of phosphate and carboxylate species within the cell pellets as a function of the uranium(VI) concentration and incubation time. The association behavior differs from another very closely related halophilic archaeon, especially with regard to uranium(VI) concentrations. This clearly demonstrates the importance of studying the interactions of different, at first sight very similar, microorganisms with uranium(VI). This work provides new insights into the microbe-uranium(VI) interactions at highly saline conditions relevant to the long-term storage of radioactive waste in rock salt.


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