scholarly journals A combined probabilistic framework to support investment appraisal under uncertainty in desalination projects: an application to Kuwait's water/energy nexus

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Skourtos ◽  
D. Damigos ◽  
A. Kontogianni ◽  
C. Tourkolias ◽  
A. Marafie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Makers ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Investment Appraisal ◽  
Water Energy Nexus ◽  
The State Of Kuwait ◽  
Desalination Plants ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty

Abstract Quantifying uncertainty over technologies, costs, and prices that stem from site-specific conditions, technological particularities and future projections is an important element in the investment appraisal of desalination facilities. Yet, the majority of economic assessments in the field of desalination plants, so far, use deterministic estimation methods based on ‘best guess’ estimates and ceteris paribus sensitivity analyses. Aiming to fill this gap, this paper introduces a new approach towards comparing alternative technological options for desalination facilities under uncertainty based on the Levelized Cost of Water (LCOW). The proposed framework combines Monte Carlo simulations with scenario analysis and random-walk-based models to account for the cone of uncertainty of the LCOW. For purely illustrative purposes, five alternative combinations of desalination technologies and energy sources are examined in the State of Kuwait. The findings show that the proposed framework, although it cannot eliminate uncertainty, can assist decision-makers in managing it by framing the range of possible outcomes of the LCOW. In this way, it offers an insight into the accuracy of the estimates and allows the validation of the impact of risks and uncertainties against the acceptable tolerance level. Yet, several issues need to be addressed in future research.

The Economics of Early Interventions Aimed at Child Development

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Berlinski ◽  
Marcos Vera-Hernández
Keyword(s):  
Child Development ◽  
Early Childhood Development ◽  
Parental Leave ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Childhood Development ◽  
Parenting Programs ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Early Interventions ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact

A set of policies is at the center of the agenda on early childhood development: parenting programs, childcare regulation and subsidies, cash and in-kind transfers, and parental leave policies. Incentives are embedded in these policies, and households react to them differently. They also have varying effects on child development, both in developed and developing countries. We have learned much about the impact of these policies in the past 20 years. We know that parenting programs can enhance child development, that centre based care might increase female labor force participation and child development, that parental leave policies beyond three months don’t cause improvement in children outcomes, and that the effects of transfers depend much on their design. In this review, we focus on the incentives embedded in these policies, and how they interact with the context and decision makers to understand the heterogeneity of effects and the mechanisms through which these policies work. We conclude by identifying areas of future research.

scholarly journals Impact of cardiovascular disease and cardiac injury on in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Heart ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 106 (15) ◽  
pp. 1142-1147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xintao Li ◽  
Bo Guan ◽  
Tong Su ◽  
Wei Liu ◽  
Mengyao Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Cardiac Injury ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Cardiovascular Comorbidities ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has produced a significant health burden worldwide, especially in patients with cardiovascular comorbidities. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the impact of underlying cardiovascular comorbidities and acute cardiac injury on in-hospital mortality risk.MethodsPubMed, Embase and Web of Science were searched for publications that reported the relationship of underlying cardiovascular disease (CVD), hypertension and myocardial injury with in-hospital fatal outcomes in patients with COVID-19. The ORs were extracted and pooled. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity.ResultsA total of 10 studies were enrolled in this meta-analysis, including eight studies for CVD, seven for hypertension and eight for acute cardiac injury. The presence of CVD and hypertension was associated with higher odds of in-hospital mortality (unadjusted OR 4.85, 95% CI 3.07 to 7.70; I2=29%; unadjusted OR 3.67, 95% CI 2.31 to 5.83; I2=57%, respectively). Acute cardiac injury was also associated with a higher unadjusted odds of 21.15 (95% CI 10.19 to 43.94; I2=71%).ConclusionCOVID-19 patients with underlying cardiovascular comorbidities, including CVD and hypertension, may face a greater risk of fatal outcomes. Acute cardiac injury may act as a marker of mortality risk. Given the unadjusted results of our meta-analysis, future research are warranted.

COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF ALEMTUZUMAB FOR T-CELL PROLYMPHOCYTIC LEUKEMIA

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 241-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lanting Lu ◽  
Jaime Peters ◽  
Chris Roome ◽  
Ken Stein
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
T Cell ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Perfect Information ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Decision Analytic Model ◽  
Prolymphocytic Leukemia ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Objectives:The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alemtuzumab (CAMPATH-1H) compared with conventional chemotherapy in people with T-cell prolymphocytic leukemia (T-PLL).Methods:We developed a decision-analytic model to assess the costs and benefits of alemtuzumab or conventional therapy based on their effects on quality of life of patients. The main outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio incorporating costs per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained over lifetime. Due to the limited data available, a large number of assumptions had to be made to construct the cost-utility model. One-way, multi-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted to explore the impact of these uncertainties. Expected values of perfect information were also calculated for four specific scenarios.Results:Depending on different key assumptions made, the PSA suggested distinct conclusions using a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30,000 GBP per QALY gained. Using this threshold, the probability that alemtuzumab would be cost-effective varies from 0 percent to 53 percent for the four modeled scenarios. Population expected value of perfect information analysis suggests that resolving the parameter uncertainty in the analysis for people with T-PLL in the United Kingdom would have considerable value—up to 5.3 million euro.Conclusions:Alemtuzumab appears more likely to be cost-effective if used earlier in the course of T-PLL and where it replaces the use of multiple alternative therapies. However, cost-effectiveness is highly uncertain and future research is clearly justified. Nevertheless, our analysis demonstrates the feasibility of considering the cost-effectiveness of an agent despite the presence of significant uncertainty to provide appropriate assessment information to policy makers.

scholarly journals School trajectory disruption among adolescents living with perinatal HIV receiving antiretroviral treatments: a case-control study in Thailand

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ophélie Merville ◽  
Patcharee Puangmala ◽  
Pranee Suksawas ◽  
Woranut Kliangpiboon ◽  
Waraporn Keawvilai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hiv Infection ◽  
Case Control Study ◽  
Adult Life ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Perinatal Hiv ◽  
Educational Disadvantage ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Control Study

Abstract Background: In the HIV/AIDS pandemic, the perinatally HIV-infected children, who are surviving to adolescence, constitute a particular group, with specific needs to manage HIV disease and to prepare their future. Adolescents living with perinatal HIV (ALPHIV) often experience difficult living circumstances that can impact educational achievement and thus, insertion in the adult life. We explore the school trajectories of ALPHIV and determine the relative contribution of HIV-infection and the contextual environment to their schooling situations.Methods: We used data from the Teens Living With Antiretrovirals (TEEWA) study, a cross-sectional case-control study, conducted from 2011 to 2014 in Thailand. We analysed data for 707 ALPHIV (cases) aged 12–19 years, receiving antiretroviral therapy in 20 hospitals throughout Thailand and 689 HIV-uninfected adolescents (controls) living in the same institutions or, for those living in family settings, randomly selected in the general population and individually matched for sex, age and residence. Schooling disruption was defined as ≥1 year academic delay or early school dropout. Logistic regression was used to assess factors independently associated with schooling disruption and to estimate the attributable fraction of school disruption related to HIV-infection. We used multivariate imputations by chained equations to manage missing data and we performed two sensitivity analyses to evaluate the reliability of our main model.Results: ALPHIV were 5 times more likely to experience schooling disruption than controls after adjustment on sociodemographic factors ( ORA=5.2 [3.7-7.2]). About 50% of schooling disruption could be attributed to HIV-infection. Boys and adolescents living in institutions were more likely to experience schooling disruption (ORA =1.8 [1.3-2.4] and ORA =11.0 [7.7-15.8], respectively). Among ALPHIV, mental and growth delays were significantly associated with schooling disruption (ORA =3.3 [2.1-5.2] and =1.8 [1.3-2.6], respectively). For ALPHIV living in family, schooling disruption was also associated with stigmatization experiences (ORA =1.9 [1.2-3.1]) and caregiver’s low education (ORA =2.1 [1.1-3.9]). Conclusions: HIV and contextual factors combine to aggravate ALPHIV educational disadvantage. Further research is needed to clarify the pathways leading to a disrupted school trajectory among ALPHIV. The impact of this educational disadvantage on their life prospects, especially regarding access to higher education and professional achievement, should be explored in future research.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of poaching on metapopulation viability for data-limited species

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (6) ◽  
pp. 894-906 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbey E. Camaclang ◽  
Janelle M.R. Curtis ◽  
Ilona Naujokaitis-Lewis ◽  
Mark S. Poesch ◽  
Marten A. Koops
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategies ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Barkley Sound ◽  
Spatially Explicit Population Model ◽  
Future Research Directions ◽  
Explicit Simulation ◽  
The Impact

We developed a spatially explicit simulation model of poaching behaviour to quantify the relative influence of the intensity, frequency, and spatial distribution of poaching on metapopulation viability. We integrated our model of poaching with a stochastic, habitat-based, spatially explicit population model, applied it to examine the impact of poaching on northern abalone (Haliotis kamtschatkana) metapopulation dynamics in Barkley Sound, British Columbia, Canada, and quantified model sensitivity to input parameters. While demographic parameters remained important in predicting extinction probabilities for northern abalone, our simulations indicate that the odds of extinction are twice as high when populations are subjected to poaching. Viability was influenced by poaching variables that affect the total number of individuals removed. Of these, poaching mortality was the most influential in predicting metapopulation viability, with each 0.1 increase in mortality rate resulting in 22.6% increase in the odds of extinction. By contrast, the location and spatial correlation of events were less important predictors of viability. When data are limited, simulation models of poaching combined with sensitivity analyses can be useful in informing management strategies and future research directions.

scholarly journals Implications for Future Research

2021 ◽  
pp. 161-189
Author(s):  
Xiu-bao Yu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Decision Factors ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The Impact

AbstractOn the basis of the three elements of strategy, this chapter puts forward some follow-up research questions and prospects mainly from the following aspects. The first is the study of factors that have influences on the quality of strategic decision. Factors include individual aspects of decision-maker, strategic decision-making information factors, approaches of strategic decision-making, etc. The second is about normative studies. They are about how the world ought to be or how strategy decisions ought to be in given situations. Outcomes of the studies can provide guidance to industry decision makers when facing development issues. Future research includePerhaps the impact of strategic decision-makers on the quality of strategies is far beyond our imagination.

Game theory applications in humanitarian operations: a review

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Muggy ◽  
Jessica L. Heier Stamm
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Past Research ◽  
Humanitarian Logistics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Humanitarian Supply Chains ◽  
Humanitarian Operations ◽  
Humanitarian Supply Chain ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to summarize ways in which game theory has been or could be utilized within the humanitarian sector and to identify future research opportunities in this field. Game theory is a tool for modeling systems in which multiple decision makers act according to their own objectives and where individual choices affect system outcomes. Humanitarian logistics systems are often characterized by the presence of many such decision makers. Design/methodology/approach – The authors synthesize literature from operations research, humanitarian logistics, and the political and management sciences that describes either game theory models or settings in which game theory has the potential to contribute practical insights. Papers are categorized based on the types of decision makers highlighted and the facets of humanitarian operations described. Findings – The review of literature indicates that applications of game theory to humanitarian supply chain systems are limited to date but that many components of humanitarian operations can benefit from such study. Research limitations/implications – The literature on game theory in humanitarian supply chains is still emerging. The findings imply opportunities for researchers to advance both theoretical and practical understanding in this area. Practical implications – Current research provides some managerial insights to humanitarian practitioners, but future practice-driven research could increase the impact of game theory models in the humanitarian sector. Originality/value – This work reviews past research contributions in the area of game theory and humanitarian operations and recommends areas for future research.

scholarly journals Novel Fuzzy Composite Indicators for Locating a Logistics Platform under Sustainability Perspectives

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3891
Author(s):  
Hana Ayadi ◽  
Nadia Hamani ◽  
Lyes Kermad ◽  
Mounir Benaissa
Keyword(s):  
Composite Indicators ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Preference Ranking ◽  
Economic Sustainability ◽  
Weak Sustainability ◽  
Interesting Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Consistency Method ◽  
Selection Of

The purpose of this paper is to help decision-makers choose the location of a logistics platform with sustainability perspectives. This study presents a compensatory and partially compensatory approach to build composite indicators, using mainly fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making methods. In the first instance, the fuzzy full consistency method (F-FUCOM) was used to calculate the weight of the criteria and sub-criteria. In the second instance, two aggregation methods, namely the fuzzy multi-attribute ideal-real comparative analysis (F-MAIRCA) and the fuzzy preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (F-PROMETHEE), were used to rank the location of a logistics platform. The novelty of the work lays in studying the impact of limited sustainability and weak sustainability on the location of a logistics platform. In this respect, the aggregation of various sustainability criterion in fuzzy compensatory and partially compensatory composite indicators is an innovative and interesting approach used to locate a logistics platform. The obtained results show that economic sustainability is the most important criterion for the selection of a logistics platform, followed by the environmental criterion. Obviously, the F-MAIRCA and F-PROMETHEE methods provided the same ranking orders. Finally, sensitivity analyses were performed to validate the robustness of the proposed approach.

scholarly journals Expected Monetary Impact of Oncotype DX Score-Concordant Systemic Breast Cancer Therapy Based on the TAILORx Trial

2019 ◽  
Vol 112 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela Mariotto ◽  
Jinani Jayasekerea ◽  
Valentina Petkov ◽  
Clyde B Schechter ◽  
Lindsey Enewold ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Oncotype Dx ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Breast Cancers ◽  
Hormone Receptor Positive ◽  
Initial Care ◽  
Personalized Cancer ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Care Costs

Abstract Background TAILORx demonstrated that women with node-negative, hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancers and Oncotype DX recurrence scores (RS) of 0–25 had similar 9-year outcomes with endocrine vs chemo-endocrine therapy; evidence for women aged 50 years and younger and RS 16–25 was less clear. We estimated how expected changes in practice following the trial might affect US costs in the initial 12 months of care (initial costs). Methods Data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER), SEER-Medicare, and SEER-Genomic Health Inc datasets were used to estimate Oncotype DX testing and chemotherapy rates and mean initial costs pre- and post-TAILORx (in 2018 dollars), assuming all women received Oncotype DX testing and score-suggested therapy posttrial. Sensitivity analyses tested the impact on costs of assumptions about compliance with testing and score-suggested treatment and estimation methods. Results Pretrial mean initial costs were $2.816 billion. Posttrial, Oncotype DX testing costs were projected to increase from $115 to $231 million and chemotherapy use to decrease from 25% to 17%, resulting in initial care costs of $2.766 billion, or a net savings of $49 million (1.8% decrease). A small net savings was seen under most assumptions. The one exception was if all women aged 50 years and younger with tumors with RS 16–25 elected to receive chemotherapy, initial care costs could increase by $105 million (4% increase). Conclusions Personalizing breast cancer treatment based on tumor genetic profiles could result in small cost decreases in the initial 12 months of care. Studies are needed to evaluate the long-term costs and nonmonetary benefits of personalized cancer care.

scholarly journals Type 1 diabetes in 2017: global estimates of incident and prevalent cases in children and adults

Diabetologia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Green ◽  
Simone M. Hede ◽  
Christopher C. Patterson ◽  
Sarah H. Wild ◽  
Giuseppina Imperatore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Type 1 Diabetes ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Diabetes Incidence ◽  
Incident Cases ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Aims/hypothesis Data on type 1 diabetes incidence and prevalence are limited, particularly for adults. This study aims to estimate global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in 2017 for all age groups, by country and areas defined by income and region. Methods Incidence rates of type 1 diabetes in children (available from 94 countries) from the IDF Atlas were used and extrapolated to countries without data. Age-specific incidence rates in adults (only known across full age range for fewer than ten countries) were obtained by applying scaling ratios for each adult age group relative to the incidence rate in children. Age-specific incidence rates were applied to population estimates to obtain incident case numbers. Duration of diabetes was estimated from available data and adjusted using differences in childhood mortality rate between countries from United Nations demographic data. Prevalent case numbers were derived by modelling the relationship between prevalence, incidence and disease duration. Sensitivity analyses were performed to quantify the impact of alternative assumptions and model inputs. Results Global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes were estimated to be 234,710 and 9,004,610, respectively, in 2017. High-income countries, with 17% of the global population, accounted for 49% of global incident cases and 52% of prevalent cases. Asia, which has the largest proportion of the world’s population (60%), had the largest number of incident (32%) and prevalent (31%) cases of type 1 diabetes. Globally, 6%, 35%, 43% and 16% of prevalent cases were in the age groups 0–14, 15–39, 40–64 and 65+ years, respectively. Based on sensitivity analyses, the estimates could deviate by ±15%. Conclusions/interpretation Globally, type 1 diabetes represents about 2% of the estimated total cases of diabetes, ranging from less than 1% in certain Pacific countries to more than 15% in Northern European populations in 2017. This study provides information for the development of healthcare and policy approaches to manage type 1 diabetes. The estimates need further validation due to limitations and assumptions related to data availability and estimation methods. Graphical abstract

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