scholarly journals Frazil jam risk assessment for water diversion projects

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 428-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mengkai Liu ◽  
Jia Yang ◽  
Guanghua Guan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Water Diversion ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
North Water

Abstract Frazil jams are common ice phenomena in rivers in winter and also threaten the safe operation and limit the water conveyancing efficiency of long-distance canal systems in cold regions. In this paper, based on the canal pool conditions from the Fenzhuanghe sluice to the Beijumahe sluice of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the fault tree principle (FTP) for frazil jam risk assessment are proposed. The risk factors of frazil jams are then identified based on the AHP. Then the probability and consequence severity of frazil jams induced by each risk factor are scored by experts, and the weights of each risk factor are proposed. Finally, risk level and prevention measures are proposed. The results show that there are 20 risk factors for canal frazil jams and the possibility of risk factors is positively correlated with the consequence severity. As yet, experts have not formed a unified view on the frazil jam mechanism of water diversion projects, and the scoring results are highly dependent on expert positions. This paper recommends the FTP as the frazil jam risk evaluation method, and the corresponding frazil jam level of the project is level III.

Risk analysis of floodwater resources utilization along water diversion project: a case study of the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 2464-2475
Author(s):  
Guohua Fang ◽  
Xiaohua Zhu ◽  
Xianfeng Huang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Water Diversion ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Fuzzy Evaluation ◽  
The South ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Water Diversion Project ◽  
North Water

Abstract Based on fuzzy mathematics, a risk assessment model of floodwater resources utilization in a water diversion project was established based on the fuzzy network analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP). First, the weight of each factor was determined through AHP, and then the fuzzy evaluation method (FEM) was used for analysis and comparison. Finally, the optimal decision scheme was determined. The model was applied to the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) for floodwater resources utilization risk assessment. The results show that the model can utilize the risk factors of floodwater resources for identification and sorting, and then make a risk evaluation. The risk of floodwater resources utilization in a normal flow year is the lowest and the benefit is remarkable, providing a reasonable control scheme, and reducing unnecessary losses for the risk of floodwater resources utilization.

scholarly journals Operational Safety Risk Assessment for the Water Channels of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project Based on TODIM-FMEA

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Huimin Li ◽  
Li Ji ◽  
Feng Li ◽  
Hairui Li ◽  
Qingguo Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Water Diversion ◽  
Water Delivery ◽  
The South ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Water Diversion Project ◽  
North Water

The South-to-North Water Diversion Project consists of long-distance water delivery channels and a complicated geological environment along the way. To deal with the operation safety of the water conveyance channels in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, this study analyzes six failure modes: structural cracks, poor water delivery during ice periods, instability of canal slopes, material aging, abnormal leakage, and foundation defects. Based on FMEA, a multigranularity language evaluation method that can be converted into interval intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is used to evaluate the severity (S), occurrence (O), and detection difficulty (D) of the six failure modes. Interval intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is used to calculate the weights of the risk factors. Finally, a ranking model of each failure mode is built based on the TODIM method. The final ranking results show that the risk of abnormal leakage is the largest, and the risk of poor water delivery during ice periods is the smallest. The feasibility and validity of the calculation results are verified by comparing them with the ranking results of the traditional RPN and TOPSIS methods. The TODIM-FMEA risk assessment model offers a new solution to the problem of risk assessment for water transfer projects.

Risk Analysis of a Large-Scale Construction Project

2014 ◽  
Vol 989-994 ◽  
pp. 5070-5074
Author(s):  
Wen Jie Dai
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Subjective Evaluation ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Scale Construction ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Fuzzy Evaluation ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Construction Period

Huge investment, long construction period, many risk factors are existed in large-scale construction project. They are faced with various risks intervened with each other. this study using analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation method, conducts the comprehensive analysis of project risk level, and by combining list sorting method with subjective evaluation method grade the risk factors according to their likelihood of occurrence, the degree of serious consequences, and the controllability of occurrence, so that by the multiplication of three scores, the level of risks can be obtained and corresponding strategies can be established according to these different risks.

scholarly journals A Cloud Model-Based Risk Assessment Methodology for Tunneling-Induced Damage to Existing Tunnel

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Tian Xu ◽  
Zhanping Song ◽  
Desai Guo ◽  
Yuncai Song
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Mechanism Analysis ◽  
Railway Tunnel ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Model Based

This study presents a cloud model-based approach for risk assessment of existing tunnels in tunneling construction environments where the cloud model provides a basis for uncertainty transformation between its qualitative concepts and quantitative expressions. An evaluation index system is established for risk assessment of existing tunnels based on the tunnel-induced failure mechanism analysis. The assessment result is obtained through the correlation with the cloud model of each risk level. Risk assessment for existing Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Railway Tunnel in the tunneling environment of Shenzhen Metro Line 6 is shown in a case study. Comparisons between Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) methods are further discussed according to results. The proposed evaluation method is verified to be more competitive as the fuzziness and randomness of uncertainties in the risk assessment system can be considered comprehensively. This method can serve as a decision-making tool for other similar project risk assessment methods to increase the likelihood of a successful project in an uncertain environment.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Tunnel Portals in the Construction Stage Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 69-87
Author(s):  
Xianghui Deng ◽  
Rui Wang ◽  
Tian Xu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Tunnel Portal

AbstractThis study presents a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) by integrating analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy cognition to evaluate the construction risks of tunnel portals. Wuguanyi Tunnel is taken as the research objective to validate the performance of the proposed method. The result shows that the proposed decision making method can effectively identify risk factors and determine the risk level during the construction of tunnel portals. Finally, the corresponding control measures during the construction of the Wuguanyi Tunnel portal are proposed according to the risk assessment results.

Components of a risk assessment tool for prevention and control of bovine respiratory disease in preweaned dairy calves

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Sharif S. Aly ◽  
Betsy M. Karle ◽  
Deniece R. Williams ◽  
Gabriele U. Maier ◽  
Sasha Dubrovsky
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Respiratory Disease ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Bovine Respiratory Disease ◽  
And Control ◽  
Management Changes

Abstract Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is the leading natural cause of death in US beef and dairy cattle, causing the annual loss of more than 1 million animals and financial losses in excess of $700 million. The multiple etiologies of BRD and its complex web of risk factors necessitate a herd-specific intervention plan for its prevention and control on dairies. Hence, a risk assessment is an important tool that producers and veterinarians can utilize for a comprehensive assessment of the management and host factors that predispose calves to BRD. The current study identifies the steps taken to develop the first BRD risk assessment tool and its components, namely the BRD risk factor questionnaire, the BRD scoring system, and a herd-specific BRD control and prevention plan. The risk factor questionnaire was designed to inquire on aspects of calf-rearing including management practices that affect calf health generally, and BRD specifically. The risk scores associated with each risk factor investigated in the questionnaire were estimated based on data from two observational studies. Producers can also estimate the prevalence of BRD in their calf herds using a smart phone or tablet application that facilitates selection of a true random sample of calves for scoring using the California BRD scoring system. Based on the risk factors identified, producers and herd veterinarians can then decide the management changes needed to mitigate the calf herd's risk for BRD. A follow-up risk assessment after a duration of time sufficient for exposure of a new cohort of calves to the management changes introduced in response to the risk assessment is recommended to monitor the prevalence of BRD.

scholarly journals Changing Epidemiology of Acute Respiratory Infections in Under-Two Children in Dhaka, Bangladesh

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karine Vidal ◽  
Shamima Sultana ◽  
Alberto Prieto Patron ◽  
Irene Salvi ◽  
Maya Shevlyakova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Health Study ◽  
Acute Respiratory Infections ◽  
Respiratory Pathogens ◽  
Prevention Measures

Objectives: Risk factors for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) in community settings are not fully understood, especially in low-income countries. We examined the incidence and risk factors associated with ARIs in under-two children from the Microbiota and Health study.Methods: Children from a peri-urban area of Dhaka (Bangladesh) were followed from birth to 2 years of age by both active surveillance of ARIs and regular scheduled visits. Nasopharyngeal samples were collected during scheduled visits for detection of bacterial facultative respiratory pathogens. Information on socioeconomic, environmental, and household conditions, and mother and child characteristics were collected. A hierarchical modeling approach was used to identify proximate determinants of ARIs.Results: Of 267 infants, 87.3% experienced at least one ARI episode during the first 2 years of life. The peak incidence of ARIs was 330 infections per 100 infant-years and occurred between 2 and 4 months of age. Season was the main risk factor (rainy monsoon season, incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.43 [1.92–3.07]; cool dry winter, IRR 2.10 [1.65–2.67] compared with hot dry summer) in the first 2 years of life. In addition, during the first 6 months of life, young maternal age (<22 years; IRR 1.34 [1.01–1.77]) and low birth weight (<2,500 g; IRR 1.39 [1.03–1.89]) were associated with higher ARI incidence.Conclusions: Reminiscent of industrialized settings, cool rainy season rather than socioeconomic and hygiene conditions was a major risk factor for ARIs in peri-urban Bangladesh. Understanding the causal links between seasonally variable factors such as temperature, humidity, crowding, diet, and ARIs will inform prevention measures.

scholarly journals REPETITION AS A RISK FACTOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUSCULOSKELETAL DISORDERS

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonja Pavlovic-Veselinovic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Musculoskeletal Disorders ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Repetitive Work ◽  
Work Related ◽  
Work Related Musculoskeletal Disorders ◽  
Repetitive Strain

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WRMSDs) are becoming a major problem in world economy. There is many and various risk factors that contribute to their development. Repetitive work is one of the most important risk factor. In this paper is described the body's response to repetitive strain, existing methods for evaluation/ quantification of repetition as risk factor for musculoskeletal disorders. The author proposes a new multidimensional scale for rating the level of risk of repetitive work, which may be useful in the risk assessment of the workplace. Key words: ergonomics, work related musculoskeletal disorders, risk assessment.

Study of Subway Construction Risk Assessment Based on the Triangular Fuzzy Numbers

2011 ◽  
Vol 243-249 ◽  
pp. 6312-6318
Author(s):  
Ge Liu ◽  
Feng Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Indicator System ◽  
Triangular Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Subway Construction ◽  
Membership Matrix

According to the characteristics of subway construction in Tianjin, a risk assessment indicator system has been established in subway construction. On the basis of traditional AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), the introduction of the concept of triangular fuzzy numbers evaluates the weight of risk factors in a more accurate and objective way. Adopting a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematical model, by constructing membership matrix, the metro construction is not difficult to quantify the risk factors with the scientific evaluation methods. It can be proved that fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method used in subway construction process is a scientific, effective evaluation method.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document