Evaluation of urban water resource security under urban expansion using a system dynamics model

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 1259-1274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Ting Chang ◽  
Hai-Long Liu ◽  
An-Ming Bao ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Ling Wang
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Water Resource Security ◽  
Resource Security

Because of rapid economic development and urbanization, water shortage has become a serious problem in the arid region of China. To investigate urban water resource security, the supply demand pressure of water resources and the urban expansion index were analyzed under different developing scenarios in this paper. Based on the economic data of Urumqi, a typical inland city in the arid area, under the present development scenario from 2011 to 2030, a system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the water resource security. The results show that there will be great influence of urban expansion on water resource security in Urumqi in the future. Water resources are projected to become increasingly scarce if the urban expansion is left unchanged in terms of population, economic growth and water-use efficiency. To find a sustainable method for water resource use, four scenarios of urban expansion were set up based on the sensitive variables. Based on comparison of water consumption under the different scenarios, the harmonize scheme for urban water resource security is the best choice for the development of Urumqi. If the impact of urban expansion on urban water resource security alleviates in the future, the main parameters would have to reach a new standard of water use. Reducing the sewage and increasing the reuse proportion of wastewater are also very important for relieving the stress of water shortage. This research can serve as a reference for water resource allocation and urban planning in arid areas.

scholarly journals Assessment of water resource security in karst area of Guizhou Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Liying Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Guizhou Province ◽  
Karst Area ◽  
Water Resource Security ◽  
Resource Security

AbstractThis paper presents the assessment of water resource security in the Guizhou karst area, China. A mean impact value and back-propagation (MIV-BP) neural network was used to understand the influencing factors. Thirty-one indices involving five aspects, the water quality subsystem, water quantity subsystem, engineering water shortage subsystem, water resource vulnerability subsystem, and water resource carrying capacity subsystem, were selected to establish an evaluation index of water resource security. In addition, a genetic algorithm and back-propagation (GA-BP) neural network was constructed to assess the water resource security of Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2015. The results show that water resource security in Guizhou was at a moderate warning level from 2001 to 2006 and a critical safety level from 2007 to 2015, except in 2011 when a moderate warning level was reached. For protection and management of water resources in a karst area, the modes of development and utilization of water resources must be thoroughly understood, along with the impact of engineering water shortage. These results are a meaningful contribution to regional ecological restoration and socio-economic development and can promote better practices for future planning.

Water Resource Security Strategy in Qinhuangdao City, Hebei Province

2013 ◽  
Vol 740 ◽  
pp. 778-781
Author(s):  
Yan Dong Peng ◽  
Chun Yun Yu
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Rapid Population Growth ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Social Economic Development ◽  
Water Resource Security ◽  
Resource Security

With the quick development of economy, increase o f population and urbanization, urban water security becomes a limited factor to fulfill the urban sustainable development. Qinhuangdao is a water shortage of resources and pollution-induced water shortage city. Under the major background of global warming, the climate of Qinhuangdao becoming warmer and drier in recent years, the precipitation has decreased correspondingly. The rivers runoff reduces obviously and the level of the groundwater drops. The quantity of usable water resource is reduced significantly. Impacted by the urbanization, social-economic development and rapid population growth, the demand of water resource increases continuously. The security situation of water resource in Qinhuangdao is becoming more severe. Through analyzing the water resource situation, existing issues and reasons in Qinhuangdao city, the author proposed regulating approaches to ensure safety of water resources.

scholarly journals Mapping the Distribution of Water Resource Security in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region at the County Level under a Changing Context

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 6463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li ◽  
Yin ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Croke ◽  
Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Diversion ◽  
County Level ◽  
Populated Region ◽  
Water Resource Security ◽  
Resource Security

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jingjinji) region is the most densely populated region in China and suffers from severe water resource shortage, with considerable water-related issues emerging under a changing context such as construction of water diversion projects (WDP), regional synergistic development, and climate change. To this end, this paper develops a framework to examine the water resource security for 200 counties in the Jingjinji region under these changes. Thus, county-level water resource security is assessed in terms of the long-term annual mean and selected typical years (i.e., dry, normal, and wet years), with and without the WDP, and under the current and projected future (i.e., regional synergistic development and climate change). The outcomes of such scenarios are assessed based on two water-crowding indicators, two use-to-availability indicators, and one composite indicator. Results indicate first that the water resources are distributed unevenly, relatively more abundant in the northeastern counties and extremely limited in the other counties. The water resources are very limited at the regional level, with the water availability per capita and per unit gross domestic product (GDP) being only 279/290 m3 and 46/18 m3 in the current and projected future scenarios, respectively, even when considering the WDP. Second, the population carrying capacity is currently the dominant influence, while economic development will be the controlling factor in the future for most middle and southern counties. This suggests that significant improvement in water-saving technologies, vigorous replacement of industries from high to low water consumption, as well as water from other supplies for large-scale applications are greatly needed. Third, the research identifies those counties most at risk to water scarcity and shows that most of them can be greatly relieved after supplementation by the planned WDP. Finally, more attention should be paid to the southern counties because their water resources are not only limited but also much more sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. This work should benefit water resource management and allocation decisions in the Jingjinji region, and the proposed assessment framework can be applied to other similar problems.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Effectiveness of a Multi-Purpose Dam Using a System Dynamics Model

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1062 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sleemin Lee ◽  
Doosun Kang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Resource Management ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Target Area ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
The Social

The increasing frequency of extreme droughts and flash floods in recent years due to climate change has increased the interest in sustainable water use and efficient water resource management. Because the water resource sector is closely related to human activities and affected by interactions between the humanities and social sciences, there is a need for interdisciplinary research that can consider various elements, such as society and the economy. This study elucidates relationships within the social and hydrological systems and quantitatively analyzes the effects of a multi-purpose dam on the target society using a system dynamics model. A causal loop was used to identify causal relationships between the social and hydrological components of the target area, and a simulation model was constructed using the system dynamics technique. Additionally, climate change and socio-economic scenarios were applied to analyze the future effects of the multi-purpose dam on population change, the regional economy, water use, and flood damage prevention in the target area. The model proved reliable in predicting socio-economic changes in the target area and can be used to make decisions about efficient water resource management and water-resource-related facility planning.

scholarly journals Influencing Indicators and Quantitative Assessment of Water Resources Security in Karst Region Based on PSER Model—The Case of Guizhou

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (20) ◽  
pp. 5671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhou ◽  
Su ◽  
Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Guizhou Province ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
Water Resource Security ◽  
Resource Security

An important basis to achieve a sustainable balance between water availability and demand is effectively identifying the factors affecting water resource security and evaluating the effectiveness of existing water resource management measures. To reasonably evaluate water resource security in Guizhou Province, this study combined the water resource security features, selected the indicator system based on the Press–Status–Effect–Response (PSER) framework, and used Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and grey correlation analysis for the province from 2001 to 2015. This allowed us to identify the main driving factors affecting water resource security. The results showed that: (1) Water resource security in Guizhou Province showed an overall trend of improvement from 2001 to 2015 and reached a maximum index of 0.57 in 2015. This amelioration in water security was mainly due to the continuous improvement of the response and effect subgroup as a result of improvements in its existing subgroup factors (policies), such as water consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), the proportion of water conservancy investment, and the proportion of the tertiary industry. Increased water stress due to rapid economic development, such as water supply for the reservoir, and the instability of the status subgroup, were the main factors negatively affecting water resource security. (2) Reduction of water consumption per USD of industrial value added, the control force of water and soil erosion being strengthened, and investment in water resources being increased, are the key factors for achieving water resource security in Guizhou during this period of rapid social and economic development. This indicates that the existing water resource management measures have been improving water resource security. The management measures need to be further improved in the future to protect water resource.

scholarly journals Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Resource Security: Case Study from Luoyang City, China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guanghua Dong ◽  
Juqin Shen ◽  
Yizhen Jia ◽  
Fuhua Sun
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Security Evaluation ◽  
Security Level ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Water Resource System ◽  
Water Resource Security ◽  
Resource Security

The security of water resources is the core content and ultimate goal of urban water resource management agencies. The management of water resources is directly related to the needs of urban residents’ lives and the area’s socio-economic development. How to determine the effective evaluation indicators and methods is an important prerequisite to solving the water resource security problem. This study took Luoyang City as the research area and constructed a water resource security evaluation index system based on pressure-state-response framework. An analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method were used to determine the index weight. A set pair analysis model was then introduced to evaluate the security of water resources in Luoyang from 2006 to 2016. The results of this study show that the standard of water resource security generally improved in Luoyang in the latter years of the study period. From 2006 to 2008, Luoyang was graded at the Insecurity Level. This compares to a slightly improved grading of Critical Security Level from 2009 to 2016 (except for 2013). However, the overall grade is still low. The pressure on the Luoyang water resource system mainly comes from the development of the urban socio-economy, which in turn has caused problems for both the quantity and quality of water resources. Therefore, a series of countermeasures have been introduced as a means of improving the water resource security of Luoyang, and these measures have achieved certain results. However, further improvements to the efficiency of water resource utilization and strengthening the management and protection of water resources remain necessary.

Options for the future: balancing urban water supply and demand in Beijing

Water Policy ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Can Wang ◽  
Camilla Dunham Whitehead ◽  
Jining Chen ◽  
Xiaomin Liu ◽  
Junying Chu
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Current Effort ◽  
Current Water ◽  
Water Supply And Demand

Beijing is facing the considerable challenge of water shortage, as it is just able to meet current water demand in a year with average precipitation and a shortfall between water supply and demand is estimated to be around 1.8 billion[109] cubic meters (BCM) by 2010. Aiming to find the solution to such a severe challenge, this paper investigates Beijing's current and future water resources availability and water-use configurations, as well as past and current effort on both areas of water supply and demand. The analysis shows a continuously growing demand for water and an aggravating deficit of traditionally available water resources. The paper concludes that it is necessary to establish well-structured water-use data and employ more advanced forecasting methods if sound future decisions regarding water balance are expected to be made. In order to realize Beijing Municipality's full urban water conservation potential, it is suggested that a comprehensive and integrated long-term conservation program be implemented, which is technically feasible and economically justified, to conserve water consistently for many years.

scholarly journals Application of an Interval Two-Stage Robust (ITSR) Optimization Model for Optimization of Water Resource Distribution in the Yinma River Basin, Jilin Province, China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2910
Author(s):  
Wei He ◽  
Luze Yang ◽  
Minghao Li ◽  
Chong Meng ◽  
Yu Li
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Resource Distribution ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Two Stage

The present study is based on the application of an interval two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) model in the Yinma River Basin. A robust method based on interval two-stage robust (ITSR) optimization is introduced to construct an optimization model of water resource distribution in order to solve the problems of water shortage in low-income and high-income areas caused by the unreasonable distribution of water resources. The model would help in reducing the system risk in the Yinma River Basin caused by an excessive pursuit of economic benefits. The model simulations show that the amount of water required for the water resource distribution is significantly reduced after balancing the risks and the water resource distribution of the water use departments is reduced by up to 20%. In addition, the situation of water scarcity of various water use departments shows a decreasing trend. There is no scarcity of water use in Panshi, Yongji, Shuangyang and Jiutai areas. The water shortage of water use departments in other areas is reduced by up to 97%. The allocation of reused water to ecological and environmental departments with higher water demand further solved the water shortage problem in low-income departments in the interval-two-stage planning model. In this study, after the introduction of the robust optimization method in the Yinma River Basin, the stability of the water resources distribution system is significantly improved. In addition, the risk of water use system in the interval-two-stage stochastic model can be avoided.

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