Assessing water resources carrying capacity based on integrated system dynamics modeling in a semiarid river basin of northern China

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1057-1066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Xie ◽  
Xuyong Li ◽  
Chunsheng Yang ◽  
Yang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Optimized Allocation

Water shortage is a major problem in northern China, because of a huge population and rapid economic growth. Taking the Luanhe River Basin (LRB) as a study area, we set up a System Dynamics (SD) model of the basin for the period 2005–2010, and considered various important socioeconomic and environmental factors and their correlation. Significant trends for the period 2011–2030 were simulated and the water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) of the LRB and its trends over the next 30 years were analyzed. The results indicate a decreasing trend of WRCC in the basin and that current economic growth is not sustainable. The study investigated possible optimized allocation projects. The most apt project would involve a combination of strategies that could considerably increase the WRCC, reduce demand, and improve water quality.

scholarly journals Simulation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xiong’an New Area Based on System Dynamics Model

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1085 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boyang Sun ◽  
Xiaohua Yang
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Environmental Governance ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Groundwater Overdraft ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Water Supply And Demand ◽  
Regional Water

In order to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area, a system dynamics (SD) model was established to evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity, for which several scenarios were designed: the original development scenario, the accelerated industrialization scenario, the environmental governance scenario, and the optimization development scenario. The results show that, compared with the original development scenario, the water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area can be improved in other scenarios, but a water supply and demand gap will be generated due to the lack of groundwater overdraft and a water transfer project. In 2026, under the accelerated industrialization scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.652 million, and the water supply and demand gap will be 1.13 × 108 m3; under the environmental governance scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.36 million, and the water supply and demand gap will be 0.44 × 108 m3; under the optimal development scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.654 million, and since the supply of water resources will be greater than the demand, there will not be a gap between supply and demand, making it the most feasible scenario to effectively alleviate the tension between industry restructuring, environmental management, and water resources development and utilization. The findings of this study can provide reference and decision support for optimizing regional water resources allocation and enhancing water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area.

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation on River Basin in Arid Zone

2010 ◽  
Vol 113-116 ◽  
pp. 488-494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Jian Wang ◽  
Guang Yang ◽  
Hai Liang Xu
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Ecological Environment ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity

The water resources carrying capacity is an important component of natural resource carrying capacity in a country or region sustained development process. It is the key being related to using the water resources reasonably, which means vital to the sustained growth of the water resources, the social economy and the ecological environment concordant development.Taking the case of river basin in arid zone of the Manasi River Basin,The author evaluated water resources supporting capacity condition basin in different year of the Manasi River by establishing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results indicated that because of saving water technological progress and industry restructure advancement, the water resources carrying capacity of Manasi River will be improved in the future twenty years. The water resources supply and demand contradictory will be obtained certain alleviation, but the uneven of water resources space and time distribution is still the main restrictive factor of the development of society and economic and the ecological environment construction.

scholarly journals Analysis of the ultimate water resources carrying capacity in Yancheng, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zengchuan Dong ◽  
Guang Yang ◽  
Shengnan Feng ◽  
Jiayi Ma ◽  
Bing Li
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Quantitative Relationship ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Technical Level ◽  
Economic Level ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Government Planning

Abstract Unreasonable development and utilization of resources has caused serious environmental problems, especially water shortage and water pollution. Determining the largest population size and economic scale that water resources can support without destroying the ecological environment in a region, that is, ultimate water resources carrying capacity (UWRCC) helps to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources. UWRCC is a variable value which is easily affected by natural conditions, technical level and economic status. This study proposes a UWRCC research method that combines multi-objective optimization and scenario analysis. This method draws the diagram of UWRCC result sets based on multi-scenario UWRCC calculation, through which UWRCC values under different specific technical and economic levels are easily and quickly obtained. This method has been applied to Yancheng in this study and the quantitative relationship between technical level, economic level and UWRCC of Yancheng is analyzed. Taking Yancheng as the research area, this study analyzes the quantitative relationship between the technical level, economic level and UWRCC of Yancheng. The results show that according to the existing government planning, Yancheng's water resources will be sufficient to support the development of socioeconomic. But the districts of Yandu, Tinghu, and Binghai will experience population and gross domestic product overloading in future years. In addition, the diagram of the UWRCC sets of Yancheng is obtained and it provides a reference for the local water resources management.

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