Water for agriculture and the environment: the ultimate trade-off

Water Policy ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 14 (S1) ◽  
pp. 136-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Vaux
Keyword(s):  
Water Allocation ◽  
Virtual Water ◽  
Environmental Services ◽  
Environmental Amenities ◽  
Global Commons ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
Sufficient Food ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Allocation Decisions ◽  
Growing Population

Global population is projected to increase over year 2000 levels by 30% in 2025 and by 50% in 2050. Producing sufficient food to feed a more populous Earth will be a challenge requiring additional developed water supplies. Existing supplies are unevenly distributed around the planet. Some developing countries lack sufficient water to grow the food necessary to feed the growing population. With time, more countries will join that group. The strategies available to produce more food depend upon which sources are available. Two options open to all countries are improving the productivity of water in agriculture and importing virtual water in food. For some, the additional options of bringing more land into production or harvesting rainwater may also be available. All these measures reallocate water to agricultural uses from environmental uses. Such reallocations may impose potentially large losses in the form of environmental services and environmental amenities. Difficult water allocation decisions with enormous values at stake confront humanity. These decisions are confounded because they entail the protection of the global commons for which there is no successful experience to draw on.

scholarly journals Population Backfire: Hindsight to Malthusian Catastrophe

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-126
Author(s):  
R Ramya ◽  
C C Babu ◽  
P Akshay
Keyword(s):  
Food Supply ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Future Generation ◽  
Population Pressure ◽  
Basic Tenet ◽  
Sufficient Food Supply ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Sufficient Food ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Malthusian Trap

The basic tenet of Economics lies in the scarcity principle and unlimited nature of human wants, but allocating a definite amount of resources to satisfy the growing per capita needs in an economy is a difficult task. Things become more complicated when the population pressure generates backfire. The global population has increased to 7.8 billion, and it is essential to ensure sufficient food supply for the growing human population as well as for other species without destroying ecological balance is a serious matter to consider. An evaluation of Malthusian population theories has great importance in this context. This paper intends to analyze the Malthusian theory of population and what happens if population backfire happens and also looks into the intensity of positive checks on population along with the Malthusian trap and its effect on the present as well as the future generation.

The Role of Polyculture in Sustainable Agricultural Development and Prevention of Land Degradation

2022 ◽  
pp. 132-153
Author(s):  
Milan Marković ◽  
Ivana Marjanović
Keyword(s):  
Land Degradation ◽  
Organic Agriculture ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Economic Viability ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Sufficient Food ◽  
Growing Population ◽  
Research Show

The aim of the chapter is to show the possible impact of policulture farming on some determinants of sustainable agricultural development, especially from the point of view of economic viability, biodiversity, and land degradation. Increasing the area under polyculture is one of the main solutions to the present environmental problems. The key constraints are economic pressures due to the question of the cost-effectiveness of such a mode of production and the need to provide sufficient food for a growing population, especially in developing countries. The results of the research show that policulture (organic agriculture) should be favored, while monoculture farming must be adequately directed and put in the function of achieving ecological goals of sustainable development as much as possible. In addition, on the example of European countries, it was assessed that there are good conditions for further “greening” of agriculture, bearing in mind the movement of the analyzed indicators.

scholarly journals The benefit of using an ensemble of seasonal streamflow forecasts in water allocation decisions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Kaune ◽  
Faysal Chowdhury ◽  
Micha Werner ◽  
James Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Water Allocation ◽  
Irrigation Season ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Additional Time ◽  
Initial Allocation ◽  
Available Water ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Reservoir Inflow ◽  
Allocation Decisions

Abstract. The area to be cropped in irrigation districts needs to be planned according to the allocated water, which in turn is a function of the available water resource. Initially conservative estimates of future (in) flows in rivers and reservoirs may lead to unnecessary reduction of the water allocated. Though water allocations may be revised as the season progresses, inconsistency in allocation is undesirable to farmers as they may then not be able to use that water, leading to an opportunity cost in agricultural production. We assess the benefit of using reservoir inflow estimates derived from seasonal forecast datasets to improve water allocation decisions. A decision model is developed to emulate the feedback loop between simulated reservoir storage and water allocations to irrigated crops, and is evaluated using inflow forecasts generated with the Forecast Guided Stochastic Scenarios (FoGSS) model, a 12-month ensemble streamflow forecasting system. Two forcings are used to generate the forecasts: ESP (historical rainfall) and POAMA (calibrated rainfall forecasts from the POAMA climate prediction system). We evaluate the approach in the Murrumbidgee basin in Australia, comparing water allocations obtained with an expected reservoir inflow from FoGSS against the allocations obtained with the currently used conservative estimate based on climatology, as well as against allocations obtained using observed inflows (perfect information). The inconsistency in allocated water is evaluated by determining the total changes in allocated water made every 15 days from the initial allocation at the start of the water year to the end of the irrigation season, including both downward and upward revisions of allocations. Results show that the inconsistency due to upward revisions in allocated water is lower when using the forecast datasets (POAMA and ESP) compared to the conservative inflow estimates (reference) which is beneficial to the planning of cropping areas by farmers. Overconfidence can, however, lead to an increase in undesirable downward revisions. This is more evident for dry years than for wet years. Over the 28 years for which allocation decisions are evaluated, we find that the accuracy of the available water estimates using the forecast ensemble improves progressively during the water year; especially one and a half months before the start of the cropping season in November. This is significant as it provides farmers additional time to make key decision on planting.

scholarly journals The benefit of using an ensemble of seasonal streamflow forecasts in water allocation decisions

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 3851-3870
Author(s):  
Alexander Kaune ◽  
Faysal Chowdhury ◽  
Micha Werner ◽  
James Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Water Allocation ◽  
Irrigation Season ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Streamflow Prediction ◽  
Additional Time ◽  
Available Water ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Reservoir Inflow ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow ◽  
Allocation Decisions

Abstract. The area to be cropped in irrigation districts needs to be planned according to the allocated water, which in turn is a function of the available water resource. Initially conservative estimates of future (in)flows in rivers and reservoirs may lead to unnecessary reduction of the water allocated. Though water allocations may be revised as the season progresses, inconsistency in allocation is undesirable to farmers as they may then not be able to use that water, leading to an opportunity cost in agricultural production. We assess the benefit of using reservoir inflow estimates derived from seasonal forecast datasets to improve water allocation decisions. A decision model is developed to emulate the feedback loop between simulated reservoir storage and water allocations to irrigated crops and is evaluated using inflow forecasts generated with the Forecast Guided Stochastic Scenarios (FoGSS) model, a 12-month ensemble streamflow forecasting system. Two forcings are used to generate the forecasts: ensemble streamflow prediction – ESP (historical rainfall) – and POAMA (calibrated rainfall forecasts from the POAMA climate prediction system). We evaluate the approach in the Murrumbidgee basin in Australia, comparing water allocations obtained with an expected reservoir inflow from FoGSS against the allocations obtained with the currently used conservative estimate based on climatology as well as against allocations obtained using observed inflows (perfect information). The inconsistency in allocated water is evaluated by determining the total changes in allocated water made every 15 d from the initial allocation at the start of the water year to the end of the irrigation season, including both downward and upward revisions of allocations. Results show that the inconsistency due to upward revisions in allocated water is lower when using the forecast datasets (POAMA and ESP) compared to the conservative inflow estimates (reference), which is beneficial to the planning of cropping areas by farmers. Overconfidence can, however, lead to an increase in undesirable downward revisions. This is more evident for dry years than for wet years. Over the 28 years for which allocation decisions are evaluated, we find that the accuracy of the available water estimates using the forecast ensemble improves progressively during the water year, especially 1.5 months before the start of the cropping season in November. This is significant as it provides farmers with additional time to make key decisions on planting. Our results show that seasonal streamflow forecasts can provide benefit in informing water allocation policies, particularly by earlier establishing final water allocations to farmers in the irrigation season. This allows them to plan better and use water allocated more efficiently.

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