scholarly journals Stochastic time-series models for drought assessment in the Gaza Strip (Palestine)

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 85-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Al-Najjar ◽  
Gokmen Ceribasi ◽  
Emrah Dogan ◽  
Mazen Abualtayef ◽  
Khalid Qahman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
The North ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
The Gaza Strip ◽  
Stochastic Time Series

Abstract The Eastern Mediterranean region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is experiencing patterns of major drought due to the effects of rising temperatures and falling precipitation levels. The multiscale drought evaluation Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) reveals evolving and severe drought from North Africa and the Sinai desert toward the Middle East. While there has been a period without drought between 1970 and 1990, the severity and frequency of drought increased considerably after 1990. Current drought conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean region of MENA are moderate to severe with a 60–100% likelihood of occurrence, according to time parameters. The Gaza Strip is especially vulnerable to the consequences of increasing drought because it is situated in the vicinity of the Sinai Desert; therefore, a downscaled study of drought in the region is essential to implement mitigation measures for the sustainable management and planning of coastal aquifer and agricultural activities in the Gaza Strip. Considerable availability of precipitation time series from various meteorological stations helped provide a local drought study for the Gaza Strip, in accordance with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The stochastic time-series model of (4,0,1) (5,1,1)12 shows a robust simulator for modeling and forecasting the future trend of precipitation at the nine meteorological stations. In terms of correlation accuracy, the model achieves a correlation (r) of approximately 93–97% in the calibration range and a correlation (r) of about 92–99% in the validation range. In terms of measuring the difference between the values, the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the model results shows that the RMSE was between 7–21 in the calibration range and 11–21 in the validation range. The model reveals a slightly stable trend in precipitation patterns at the northern meteorological stations of Beit Hanon, Beit Lahia, Shati, and Remal. However, declining precipitation tendency was recorded at the southern meteorological stations of Mughraka, Nussirat, Beir Al-Balah, Khanyounis, and Rafah. The SPI-based drought assessment implies that the precipitation annual threshold levels at SPI = 0 drop territorially from 474 mm in the north to about 250 mm in the south of the Gaza Strip. In this study, a representative 12-month local scale SPI12 at an annual precipitation threshold level of 370 mm was formulated to address the drought conditions in the Gaza Strip. Standing on the outputs of the local SPI12 scale might signify that the region of the Gaza Strip risks drought status with an incidence likelihood varying from 8% in the north to 100% in the south. Regular drought is prevalent in the northern governorates, but the hazards of extreme and severe drought are high in the southern areas with an incidence risk of about 83%. Sequentially, southern governorates of Rafah and Khanyounis experience chronic annual drought, while the return period of drought is reported to be every 9–12 years in the northern governorates of the Gaza Strip. The rain-fed years of 1998 and 2010 reported the worst periods of drought, while the period of 2016 showed a good droughtless water balance. Overall, the no-drought status might define the prospective conditions in the governorates of North Gaza, Gaza, and central Gaza over the next 20 years, while Rafah and Khanyounis are anticipated to be under normal to severe drought conditions.

Differential responses by sympatric macropodids to severe drought.

2004 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 185
Author(s):  
PE Hornsby ◽  
EY Corlett
Keyword(s):  
South Australia ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
The North ◽  
Flinders Ranges ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
Differential Responses ◽  
A Site ◽  
Significant Mortality

Responses to severe drought by two sympatric macropodids, the yellow-footed rock-wallaby (Petrogale xanthopus) and the euro (Macropus robustus erubescens) were examined at a site in the North Flinders Ranges of South Australia. The results indicate that the two species respond differentially to drought conditions. It was observed that small fluctuations occurred in the P. xanthopus population. In contrast, M. r. erubescens evidenced significant mortality, especially among larger animals.

scholarly journals DETERMINATION OF ASEISMIC DEFORMATION ON NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT IN ISMETPASA AND DESTEK REGIONS USING GPS DATA, TURKEY

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 182
Author(s):  
H. Yavasoglu ◽  
M.N. Alkan ◽  
K. Aladogan ◽  
I.M Ozulu ◽  
V. Ilci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
North Anatolian Fault ◽  
Gps Data ◽  
Slip Mechanism ◽  
The North ◽  
First Results ◽  
Fault Deformation ◽  
Fault Mechanism

The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is one of the most destructive fault in the eastern Mediterranean region. After Izmit and Düzce earthquakes, the projects on monitoring the fault motion increase using instrumental tools like GPS, InSAR, LIDAR, creepmeter, etc. The eastern and central part of the NAFZ from Karlıova to Vezirköprü has almost strike slip mechanism. The western part of the central NAFZ from Vezirköprü to Bolu has transpressive character. The aseismic fault deformation (creep) is also important phenomena for these two sections. The InSAR and LIDAR studies showed that the Ismetpasa and Destek regions have creep motions. For this purpose, the new project has been started to proof this phenomena with GPS data and to determine quantitatively the rate of convergence and its variation along segment of the NAF between Bolu and Çorum. The main aim of this study is determination of creep rate with geodetic measurements and combination of the data obtained from seismology, geodesy and geophysics to understand fault mechanism. Therefore, in this paper we discuss tectonic phenomena on the central part of the NAFZ and present the first results of the project.

scholarly journals Quantification of Recharge and Runoff from Rainfall Using New GIS Tool: Example of the Gaza Strip Aquifer

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashraf M. Mushtaha ◽  
Marc Van Camp ◽  
Kristine Walraevens
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Sand Dune ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Water Source ◽  
Curve Number ◽  
The North ◽  
Thiessen Polygon ◽  
The Gaza Strip

The Gaza Strip forms a transition zone between the semi-humid coastal zone in the north, the semi-arid zone in the east, and the Sinai desert in the south. Groundwater is the only water source for 1.94 million inhabitants, where the only fresh replenishment water for the aquifer comes from rainfall. This study focuses on testing a newly developed GIS tool to estimate the spatial and temporal distribution of runoff and recharge from rainfall. The estimation of surface runoff was made using the Soil Conservation Services Curve Number Method, while groundwater recharge was estimated using Thornthwaite and Mather’s Soil Moisture Balance approach. The new tool was applied to the Gaza aquifer for the year 1935 and for the period from 1973 to 2016. A comparison was made between the results obtained with the developed GIS tool and the frequently used Thiessen polygon method for rainfall distribution. Runoff and recharge were estimated for the year 1935 (prior to development) to compare with the current developed conditions. It was found that the built-up and sand dune areas stand in an inverse relationship, where the former is replacing the latter (built-up area expanded from 30.1 km2 in 1982 to 92.1 km2 in 2010). Recharge takes place in the sand dune area, whereas runoff increases in the built-up area. Due to development, runoff almost tripled from 9 million m3 in 1982 to 22.9 million m3 in 2010, while groundwater recharge was reduced from 27.3 million m3 in 1982 to 23 million m3 in 2010, even though the rainfall increased between 1982 and 2010 by 11%. Comparison between the newly developed GIS tool and the Thiessen polygon-based estimation shows that the former leads to higher values of runoff and recharge for dry years.

scholarly journals On the occurrence and health risks of the Silver-cheeked Toadfish (Lagocephalus sceleratus Gmelin, 1789) in the marine ecosystem of the Gaza Strip, Palestine

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
ABDEL FATTAH N. ABD RABOU
Keyword(s):  
Health Risks ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Entire Body ◽  
Awareness Campaigns ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Gaza Strip ◽  
Lagocephalus Sceleratus

Abstract. Abd Rabou AFN. 2019. On the occurrence and health risks of the Silver-cheeked Toadfish (Lagocephalus sceleratus Gmelin, 1789) in the marine ecosystem of the Gaza Strip, Palestine. Biodiversitas 20: 2620-2627. The Silver-cheeked Toadfish (Lagocephalus sceleratus Gmelin, 1789) is one of the most recent invaders into the Mediterranean Sea. It represents a serious ecological risk to Mediterranean biodiversity and fisheries resources and a health risk to public health. The current study comes to handle the occurrence and health risks of the species in the Eastern Mediterranean of the Gaza Strip, Palestine. Frequent visits to local fish markets, meetings, and discussions with stakeholders, and chasing of local media reports were the main tools involved to satisfy the goals of the study, which extended from 2010 to 2019. The first record of the Silver-cheeked Toadfish in the Mediterranean coast of the Gaza Strip was in 2006 as claimed by fisheries parties. The by-catch of the species by fishing gear extended over the entire length of the Mediterranean coast of the Gaza Strip (42 km). The species was said to damage fishing nets, lines and hooks by its strong teeth. Prior to its banning in early 2010s, all pufferfishes including the species in question were sold freely in Gaza fish markets. Several cases of hospitalization have been reported in the Gaza Strip after consumption of the Silver-cheeked Toadfish. The symptoms of TTX intoxication included nausea and vomiting, dizziness, headache, abdominal pain, perioral paraesthesia, and tingling over the entire body. No death cases were reported locally. Many awareness campaigns have been conducted by fisheries parties to warn both fishermen and local people from the ecological and health risks associated with the Silver-cheeked Toadfish and TTX intoxication. Finally, the threats imposed by the Silver-cheeked Toadfish on the Eastern Mediterranean countries including Palestine indicate that potential solutions to the problem should be explored.

scholarly journals Investigation of energy resources and gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean region: the case of people’s expectations and social impacts in Egypt

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud A. Hammad ◽  
Sonja Mlaker Kac ◽  
Sandra S. G. Haddad ◽  
Habiba S. El Rouby
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Social Impacts ◽  
Ordinary People ◽  
High Expectations ◽  
The North ◽  
The People ◽  
Random Sampling Approach

This study discusses the expected social impacts due to the recent offshore gas findings and development in the Eastern Mediterranean region on human communities in Alexandrian in the North of Egypt. A sample of 401 respondents of ordinary people who are living in the Alexandria governorate were sampled for the study using a convenience non-random sampling approach. The study showed most people are somewhat familiar with the ongoing gas discoveries in the Mediterranean Sea. The study also revealed that the people in Egypt have relatively high expectations from these gas discoveries. The ordinary people in Egypt expected that such discoveries of gas would have many positive and negative social impacts side by side. They expected several social benefits of gas finds such as: the contribution to the diversification of the economy, infrastructural development, expanding social services, improvement of the standard of living, business and investment opportunities, employment.

إدارة الطوارئ في محطات معالجة مياه الصرف الصحي حالة دراسة: محطة الشمال في بيت لاهيا

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 66-76
Author(s):  
Alaa Mahmoud Msalam ◽  
Nizam M. El-Ashgar ◽  
Mohamad Ramadan Alagha
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Response ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Sewage Treatment ◽  
Sewage Treatment Plant ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
The North ◽  
Contingency Plans ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
The Gaza Strip

The aim of this study is to identify the potential risks to the North Station (Beit Lahiya Station and the North Emergency Station), and to prepare emergency response procedures in the sewage treatment plant in Northern Gaza. The researchers followed the descriptive and analytical approach of the sources and reports issued by the institutions related to the sewage stations in the Gaza Strip. The study also included interviews with engineers at the station to analyze and assess the risks to the North station, to identify indicators to prevent flooding of Umm al-Nasr village, and to identify preventive measures to avoid disasters. The study also recommended the necessity of finishing the development of the North Emergency Station Project to accommodate the cumulative increase in the amount of treated water, as well as work on the preparation of contingency plans to deal with the expected risks and the preparation of preparedness and response procedures for each risk.

scholarly journals Compatibility between “Arbequina” and “Souri” Olive Cultivars May Increase Souri Fruit Set

Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 910
Author(s):  
Iris Biton ◽  
Yair Many ◽  
Ali Mazen ◽  
Giora Ben-Ari
Keyword(s):  
Fruit Set ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Paternity Analysis ◽  
Olive Cultivar ◽  
Cross Pollination ◽  
The North ◽  
Olive Variety ◽  
Olive Cultivars ◽  
Arbequina Cultivar

The “Souri” olive cultivar, which is autochthonous to the eastern Mediterranean region, has been the major olive variety cultivated traditionally under rain-fed conditions in northern Israel. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal pollen donor for the olive cultivar Souri in order to maximize Souri fruit set. Artificial cross pollination of Souri flowers with several local varieties has identified the “Nabali” as the most efficient pollinizer of the Souri. However, further experiments using artificial cross pollination conducted with cultivars not common to this region have revealed the “Arbequina” as a more efficient pollinizer of the Souri cultivar than the Nabali. Based on a preliminary paternity analysis, the Nabali was identified as the dominant pollinizer of Souri trees in traditional olive orchards in the north of Israel. However, in a multi-variety orchard, molecular paternity analysis has shown Arbequina to be the most frequent pollinizer. We then tested, during two consecutive years, whether the presence of a pollen-producing Arbequina tree adjoining Souri trees in the field will increase their fruit set. We found that Souri fruit set was 8.36% when pollinized by an Arbequina tree in close proximity to them, significantly higher than the fruit set of 5.6% for Souri trees without the nearby Arbequina cultivar. On the basis of these trials, we expect that the yield of Souri orchards will improve if Arbequina trees are planted.

scholarly journals Stochastic and Artificial Intelligence Models for Climate Change Investigation and Groundwater Level Assessment of Gaza Coastal Aquifer (Palestine)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Al-Najjar ◽  
Gokmen Ceribasi ◽  
Emrah Dogan ◽  
Khalid Qahman ◽  
Mazen Abualtayef ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Coastal Aquifer ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
The Gaza Strip ◽  
The Impact

The Gaza coastal aquifer is a critical resource for the supply of water to the Gaza Strip and continues to be depleted as a result of the effects of climate change and the anthropogenic activities. Therefore, this study tends to investigate the impact of climate change and groundwater withdrawal practices on the oscillation of the Gaza Coastal Aquifer water table level by recruiting the power of the stochastic time-series models in exemplifying the autoregression of data and by leveraging the efficiency of the artificial neural networks (ANNs) in expressing the nonlinear regression between the different meteorological and hydrological factors. The climate stochastic models reveal that the Gaza Strip region will face a decline in the precipitation by -5.2% and an increase in the temperature by +1˚C in the timeframe of 2020-2040. The potential evaporation and the sunshine period will increase by about 111 mm and 5 hours, respectively during the next 20 years. However, the atmosphere is predicted to be drier where the relative humidity will fall by a trend of -8% in 20 years. The stochastic models developed for the groundwater abstraction time series show that the groundwater pumping processes would increase by about 55 % by 2040, compared to the 124 million cubic meters of groundwater that was withdrawn in 2020. The stochastic model of structure (2,1,5) (4,1,2)12 was defined to extend the time series of the groundwater level up to 2040. In order to form an integrated stochastic-ANN model, the combination of the time series of climate factors, groundwater abstraction and groundwater level were emerged into a one hidden layer ANN of 20-neurons. The performance of the model was high in term of training and in forecasting the future where the correlation coefficient (r) = 0.95-0.99 and the root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.09-0.21.

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