scholarly journals How to incorporate climate change into modelling environmental water outcomes: a review

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 327-340
Author(s):  
Andrew John ◽  
Rory Nathan ◽  
Avril Horne ◽  
Michael Stewardson ◽  
J. Angus Webb
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Water ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Ecological Responses ◽  
Environmental Objectives ◽  
Support Decision Making ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change ◽  
Modelling Approaches

Abstract Environmental water represents a key resource in managing freshwater ecosystems against pervasive threats. The impacts of climate change add further pressures to environmental water management, yet anticipating these impacts through modelling approaches remains challenging due to the complexities of the climate, hydrological and ecological systems. In this paper, we review the challenges posed by each of these three areas. Large uncertainties in predicting climatic changes and non-stationarities in hydrological and ecological responses make anticipating impacts difficult. In addition, a legacy of relying on modelling approaches informed by historic dependencies in environmental water science may confound the prediction of ecological responses when extrapolating under novel conditions. We also discuss applying ecohydrological methods to support decision-making and review applications of bottom-up climate impact assessments (specifically eco-engineering decision scaling) to freshwater ecosystems. These approaches offer a promising way of incorporating climatic uncertainty and balancing competing environmental objectives, but some practical challenges remain in their adoption for modelling environmental water outcomes under climate change.

scholarly journals Smallholder Farmers’ Vulnerability to Impact of Climate Change in Central Bhutan

2020 ◽  
pp. 286-299
Author(s):  
Pema Rinzin ◽  
Thubten Sonam ◽  
Sangay Tshering ◽  
Purna Prasad Chapagai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Food Component ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Framework Approach ◽  
Context Specific ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Climate change carries immense threat to the livelihood and food security of smallholder farmers in Bhutan and it is therefore crucial to enhance their adaptive capacity.  However, building resiliency to climate impact require information on vulnerability of the system of interest. Therefore, this study assessed smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to impacts of climate change and variability in central regions (Bumthang and Trongsa) of Bhutan. Data was collected from 247 randomly selected households by administering a pre-tested survey questionnaire. Data was analyzed using composite index approach (LVI) and IPCC framework approach (LVI-IPCC). The LVI analysis revealed that Bumthang was more vulnerable in terms of Socio-demographic profile (0.55), social networks (0.45), health (0.31) and natural disasters and climate variability (0.47) compared to Trongsa. Whereas, Trongsa was more vulnerable in terms of livelihood strategies (0.31) and water (0.13). Vulnerability score on the food component was same for both the districts (0.27). Overall, Bumthang was more vulnerable compared to Trongsa on both LVI (Bumthang: 0.36, Trongsa: 0.34) and LVI-IPCC (Bumthang: 0.24, Trongsa: 0.13) analysis. The findings could be used for designing micro-level context specific interventions to enhance smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacity to impacts of climate change in central Bhutan.

scholarly journals Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: a review of analytical tools and management implications

2011 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 1132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Éva E. Plagányi ◽  
Johann D. Bell ◽  
Rodrigo H. Bustamante ◽  
Jeffrey M. Dambacher ◽  
Darren M. Dennis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Management ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Aquatic Resources ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Analytical Tools ◽  
Unexpected Outcomes ◽  
Collection Programs ◽  
Modelling Approaches

Climate change presents significant challenges to modelling and managing aquatic resources. Equilibrium assumptions common in many modelling approaches need to be replaced by formulations that allow for changing baselines and integration of ongoing changes and adaptations by species, ecosystems and humans. As ecosystems change, so will the ways humans use, monitor and manage them. Consequently, adaptive management loops and supporting tools deserve more prominence in the management toolbox. Models are critical tools for providing an early understanding of the challenges to be faced by integrating observations and examining possible solutions. We review modelling tools currently available to incorporate the effect of climate change on marine and freshwater ecosystems, and the implications for management of natural resources. System non-linearity can confound interpretations and hence adaptive management responses are needed that are robust to unexpected outcomes. An improvement in the ability to model the effects of climate change from a social and economic perspective is necessary. The outputs from ‘end-to-end’ and socio-ecological models can potentially inform planning, in both Australia and the Pacific region, about how best to build resilience to climate change. In this context, the importance of well directed data-collection programs is also emphasised. Lessons from this region, which is advanced with regard to modelling approaches, can guide increased use of models to test options for managing aquatic resources worldwide.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impacts of Climate change on Crop Yields in different Agro-Climatic Zones of India

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Naveen P Singh ◽  
Bhawna Anand ◽  
S K Srivastava ◽  
K V Rao ◽  
S K Bal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Significant Rise ◽  
Agricultural System ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Thestudy attempts to estimateand predict climate impact on crop yieldsusing future temperature projections under two climate emissions scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for threedifferent time periods (2030s, 2050s and 2080s) across Agro-climatic zones (ACZ) of India.During the period 1966-2011, a significant rise was observed in both the annual mean maximum and minimum temperature across ACZs. Rainfall recorded an annual decline in Himalayan Regions and Gangetic Plains and a rise in Coastal Regions, Plateau & Hills and Western Dry Region.Our results showedhigh heterogeneity in climate impact onkharif and rabi crop yields (with both negative and positive estimates) across ACZs.It was found that rainfall had a positive effect on most of crop yields, but was not sufficient enough to counterbalance the impact of temperature.Changes in crop yield were more pronounced forhigheremission scenario of RCP 8.5. Thus, it was evident that the relative impacts of climate change and the associated vulnerability varyby ACZs, hence comprehensive crop and region-specific adaptation measures should be emphasized that helps in enhancing resilience of agricultural system in short to medium term. 

Towards integrated knowledge of climate change in Arctic marine systems: a systematic literature review of multidisciplinary research

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianne Falardeau ◽  
Elena M. Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Systematic Literature Review ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Marine Animals ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Climate change affects Arctic marine ecosystems, the ecosystem services they provide, and the human well-being that relies on these services. The impacts of climate change in the Arctic and elsewhere involve cascading effects and feedbacks that flow across social-ecological systems (SES), such as when sea ice loss alters food security through changes in the distribution of marine animals. These cascades and feedbacks across social and ecological systems can exacerbate the effects of climate change or lead to surprising outcomes. Identifying where cascades and feedbacks may occur in SES can help anticipate, or even prevent unexpected outcomes of climate change, and lead to improved policy responses. Here, we perform a systematic literature review of multidisciplinary Arctic research to determine the state of knowledge of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. Then, in a case study corresponding to Inuit regions, we use network analysis to integrate research into a SES perspective and identify which linkages have been most versus least studied, and whether some potential cascades and feedbacks have been overlooked. Finally, we propose ways forward to advance knowledge of changing Arctic marine SES, including transdisciplinary approaches involving multiple disciplines and the collaboration of Indigenous and local knowledge holders.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on rice production and strategies for adaptation in Chitwan, Nepal

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sachin Gahatraj ◽  
Ritesh Kumar Jha ◽  
Om Prakash Singh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rice Variety ◽  
Structured Interview ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Local Varieties ◽  
Production Problem ◽  
Weather Parameters ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

This study was conducted to understand perception of farmers about climate change; how it affects rice production and what are the local adaptation strategies adopted by farmers to maintain rice yield in Chitwan district of Nepal. A total of 90 rainy season rice farming household were surveyed with semi-structured interview schedule. The data obtained were analyzed using SPSS and MS Excel. Majority of the respondents (91.20%) perceived deviation in weather parameters in last 10 years. Most of the farmers had perceived drought as the major impact of climate change and nursery stage of rice to be highly prone to climate impact. Higher proportion of farmers had experienced delay in transplanting and harvesting time of paddy in last 10 years. Many farmers had already replaced local varieties by either improved or hybrid rice variety resilient to climate change. Increased insects infestation and weed menace along with outbreak of new types were found to be major production problem perceived by farmers at study area. Most of the respondents (50%) were expecting technical supports followed by infrastructure development (20.6%) from different organizations. Climate resilient projects and programs designed in bottom up approach to enhance understanding of impacts of climate change will help farmers to cope climate risk on rice production.

Introducing the beta version of ISIpedia, the open climate-impacts encyclopaedia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Burcu Yesil ◽  
Quentin Lejeune ◽  
Inga Menke ◽  
Kaylin Lee ◽  
Barbara Templ ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Scientific Knowledge ◽  
Stakeholder Engagement ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Beta Version ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Despite the existing ample amount of scientific knowledge on the impacts of climate change, this information is often not conveyed in a way that is relevant and useful to decision makers. If designed correctly, climate services can bridge the gap between the knowledge providers and users. The ISIpedia project aims at developing an online encyclopedia  that provides policy-relevant, user-driven climate impact information based on the data and scientific knowledge generated by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP,) community. In order to ensure that the information provided is accessible and understandable, ISIpedia has facilitated a dialogue between modellers and stakeholders through a number of stakeholder engagement activities.</p><p> </p><p>The ISIpedia portal will deliver national- and global- level assessments of impacts of climate change across different sectors to the identified end-users that range from climate adaptation planners (e.g. involved in National Adaptation Plans) and practitioners, regional knowledge hubs, trans- and interdisciplinary scientists to regional climate experts from the private and public sectors. The portal is also characterised by an intuitive and user-friendly interface for better dissemination and application of this knowledge.</p><p> </p><p>Through an interactive exploration of the ISIpedia portal, during this session we will not only introduce the beta version of ISIpedia but also discuss in detail how our stakeholder engagement processes have shaped the portal’s current functionalities and its design. More specifically, the audience will get a chance to create country-specific climate impact assessments and test the legibility of the content, which includes interactive graphs and maps as well as method descriptions. We will also explore how different inter-sectoral indicators, some of which were derived from our workshops in Eastern Europe (Poland, November 2018) and West Africa (Burkina Faso, February 2019), can be applied to managing climate risks, vulnerabilities and planning adaptation and/or larger political contexts, such as the Sustainable Development Goals or Disaster Risk Reduction and what new indicators can be developed. Additionally, we will present other functional and design features, such as the glossary, data download functions and news, that we identified as added values to the portal during diverse stakeholder engagement activities.</p><p> </p><p>The inputs gathered from the EGU conference, along with the ones from the planned feedback workshops in Southeast Asia (April 2020), Eastern Europe (June 2020) and West Africa (October 2020), will be taken into account for further improvement of the portal until its final release in the fall of 2020. Furthermore, a reflection on the successes and challenges of our co-development process will be shared.</p>

scholarly journals What do Environmental Flows Mean for Long-term Freshwater Ecosystems’ Protection? Assessment of the Mexican Water Reserves for the Environment Program

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1240
Author(s):  
Sergio A. Salinas-Rodríguez ◽  
Everardo Barba-Macías ◽  
Dulce Infante Mata ◽  
Mariana Zareth Nava-López ◽  
Iris Neri-Flores ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Use ◽  
Water Policy ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Environmental Water ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Environmental Objectives ◽  
Ecological Protection ◽  
Mexican Government

Almost a decade ago, the Mexican government targeted to establish environmental water reserves (EWR)—a volume of water allocated for ecological protection based on the Environmental Flow Mexican Norm (eflows, NMX-AA-159-SCFI-2012, ratified in 2017)—in strategic low-pressured for water use and high conservation importance river basins throughout the country. To date, 12 EWRs have been declared for up to 50 years, which encompass 295 river basins and ~55% of the national mean annual runoff (MAR). In this article, we conducted a quality evaluation of the EWRs established. First, the EWR level was analyzed against the MAR and according to wider hydrological conditions. The EWR fulfillment was evaluated by comparing the volumes enacted against the theoretical (Norm implementation). Our findings revealed that independently of individual and regional water use and conservation merits context, ~75% of the EWRs met theoretical volumes at least at an acceptable level, of which medians ranged from 24% to 73% MAR (natural parametrization and A–D environmental objectives). These outcomes prove the usefulness and consistency of the Mexican strategic hierarchical approach for eflow assessments. We aim for them to be considered as the baseline for future on-site eflow implementation and environmental water policy assessments, to show the nationwide potential benefits for protecting free-flowing rivers and to encourage a regional escalation of the strategy.

scholarly journals Shifting Goalposts: Setting Restoration Targets for Waterbirds in the Murray-Darling Basin Under Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilad Bino ◽  
Kate Brandis ◽  
Richard T. Kingsford ◽  
John Porter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Life Histories ◽  
River System ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Environmental Water ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Restoration Targets ◽  
Murray Darling Basin

The Murray-Darling Basin (the Basin) is the largest river system in Australia, supplying about 40% of the country’s irrigated agricultural output. Associated water resource development has come with a heavy price for the Basin’s freshwater ecosystems degrading them over decades. Australian governments are attempting to achieve environmental sustainability by returning water to the environment through buy-back of irrigation licences and improved water efficiencies. To determine effectiveness, basin-wide management objectives were established for key indicators, including waterbird populations and life histories which can effectively indicate ecosystem function and condition, driven by flow and flooding regimes. Ongoing monitoring of waterbird numbers indicates continued declines. We evaluated the feasibility of meeting established waterbird objectives under existing and predicted climates. We modelled long-term waterbird numbers using one of the world’s largest ongoing waterbird surveys (1983–2020), covering about 13.5% of the area of the entire Basin. Our findings suggest that under near future climate change projections, waterbird numbers will likely continue to decline, and remain below restoration targets set for the Basin. We discuss the current policy settings for using environmental water to support waterbird populations, recommending adjustments to restore the Basin’s waterbird populations and their wetlands in order to meet Australia’s conservation targets in relation to the ongoing global crisis of biodiversity loss.

Direct Impacts of Climate Change on Freshwater Ecosystems

2010 ◽  
pp. 38-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike Nickus ◽  
Kevin Bishop ◽  
Martin Erlandsson ◽  
Chris D. Evans ◽  
Martin Forsius ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change
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