scholarly journals Changes in flow and sediment load of poorly gauged Brahmaputra river basin under an extreme climate scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shammi Haque ◽  
Md. Mostafa Ali ◽  
A. K. M. Saiful Islam ◽  
Jamal Uddin Khan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Brahmaputra River ◽  
Sediment Routing

Abstract Brahmaputra River Basin (BRB), the largest contributor of sediment load in Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, is highly vulnerable to future climate change. Several studies assessed the effects of climate change of BRB on river flow but an assessment on sediment load has not been conducted. Changes in sediment load in the future need to be assessed to control and manage sediment flows in large catchments properly. The present study focuses on developing a hydrological and sediment routing model of BRB using the HEC-HMS model to estimate future sediment load together with the flow for the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation and Engelund Hansen method of HEC-HMS have been applied for the sediment transport of BRB. The model has been calibrated using daily runoff for the period 1983–1996 and validated for the period 1997–2010, respectively. The uncertainty in the percentage change in seasonal sediment load during the pre-monsoon season is higher than that of the monsoon season. However, the contribution of the sediment load of pre-monsoon is very much lower than the monsoon season. The percentage changes in mean annual sediment load compared to the baseline period for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s are 34, 67 and 115%, respectively.

Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Viet Thang ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Ho Long Phi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

scholarly journals Understanding Future Water Challenges in a Highly Regulated Indian River Basin—Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Narmada

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Rickards ◽  
Thomas Thomas ◽  
Alexandra Kaelin ◽  
Helen Houghton-Carr ◽  
Sharad K. Jain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Availability Assessment

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin.

scholarly journals Future climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin using SDSM and RCPs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saira Munawar ◽  
Muhammad Naveed Tahir ◽  
Muhammad Hassan Ali Baig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Global Issue ◽  
Jhelum River ◽  
Jhelum River Basin

Abstract Climate change is a global issue and causes great uncertainties in runoff and streamflow projections, especially in high-altitude basins. The quantification of climatic indicators remains a tedious job for the scarcely gauged mountainous basin. This study investigated climate change by incorporating GCM (CCSM4) using the SDSM method for RCPs in the Jhelum river basin. Historical climatic data were coupled with Aphrodite data to cope with the scarcity of weather stations. SDSM was calibrated for the period 1976–2005 and validated for the period 2006–2015 using R2 and RMSE. Future climatic indicators were downscaled and debiased using the MB-BC method. The de-biased downscaled data and MODIS data were used to simulate discharge of Jhelum river basin using SRM. Simulated discharge was compared with measured discharge by using Dv% and NSE. The R2 and RMSE for SDSM range between 0.89–0.95 and 0.8–1.02 for temperature and 0.86–0.96 and 0.57–1.02 for precipitation. Projections depicted a rising trend of 1.5 °C to 3.8 °C in temperature, 2–7% in mean annual precipitation and 3.3–7.4% in discharge for 2100 as compared to the baseline period. Results depicted an increasing trend for climatic indicators and discharge due to climate change for the basin.

scholarly journals Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 483
Author(s):  
Ümit Yıldırım ◽  
Cüneyt Güler ◽  
Barış Önol ◽  
Michael Rode ◽  
Seifeddine Jomaa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Distributed Process ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Se Turkey

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model. The effect of climate change on the discharge of the Alata River Basin in Mersin province (Turkey) was assessed under the worst-case climate change scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), using the semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). First, the model was evaluated temporally and spatially and has been shown to reproduce the measured discharge consistently. Second, the discharge was predicted under climate projections in three distinct future periods (i.e., 2021–2040, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, reflecting the beginning, middle and end of the century, respectively). Climate change projections showed that the annual mean temperature in the Alata River Basin rises for the beginning, middle and end of the century, with about 1.35, 2.13 and 4.11 °C, respectively. Besides, the highest discharge timing seems to occur one month earlier (February instead of March) compared to the baseline period (2000–2011) in the beginning and middle of the century. The results show a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature in all future projections, resulting in more snowmelt and higher discharge generation in the beginning and middle of the century scenarios. However, at the end of the century, the discharge significantly decreased due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced snow depth in the upstream area. The findings of this study can help develop efficient climate change adaptation options in the Levant’s coastal areas.

Evidence of river flow regulation loss over time in the Magdalena river basin 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diver E. Marín ◽  
Juan F. Salazar ◽  
José A. Posada-Marín
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Scaling Theory ◽  
Scaling Properties ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Magdalena River

<p>Some of the main problems in hydrological sciences are related to how and why river flows change as a result of environmental change, and what are the corresponding implications for society. This has been described as the Panta Rhei context, which refers to the challenge of understanding and quantifying hydrological dynamics in a changing environment, i.e. under the influence of non-stationary effects. The river flow regime in a basin is the result of a complex aggregation process that has been studied by the scaling theory, which allows river basins to be classified as regulated or unregulated and to identify a critical threshold between these states. Regulation is defined here as the basin’s capacity to either dampen high flows or to enhance low flows. This capacity depends on how basins store and release water through time, which in turn depends on many processes that are highly dynamic and sensitive to environmental change. Here we focus on the Magdalena river basin in northwestern South America, which is the main basin for water and energy security in Colombia, and at the same time, it has been identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to be affected by climate change. Building upon some of our previous studies, here we use data analysis to study the evolution of regulation in the Magdalena basin for 1992-2015 based on the scaling theory for extreme flows. In contrast to most previous studies, here we focus on the scaling properties of events rather than on long term averages. We discuss possible relations between changes in the scaling properties and environmental factors such as climate variability, climate change, and land use/land cover change, as well as the potential implications for water security in the country. Our results show that, during the last few decades, the Magdalena river basin has maintained its capacity to regulate low flows (i.e. amplification) whereas it has been losing its capacity to regulate high flows (i.e. dampening), which could be associated with the occurrence of the extremes phases of  El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and anthropogenic effects, mainly deforestation. These results provide foundations for using the scaling laws as empirical tools for understanding temporal changes of hydrological regulation and simultaneously generate useful scientific evidence that allows stakeholders to take decisions related to water management in the Magdalena river basin in the context of environmental change.</p>

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Soil Erosion in the Xihe River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1085 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshan Guo ◽  
Zhengru Zhu ◽  
Leting Lyu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Validation Period ◽  
Total Change ◽  
Calibration Period

Climate change and human activities are the major factors affecting runoff and sediment load. We analyzed the inter-annual variation trend of the average rainfall, air temperature, runoff and sediment load in the Xihe River Basin from 1969–2015. Pettitt’s test and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used to detect sudden change in hydro-meteorological variables and simulate the basin hydrological cycle, respectively. According to the simulation results, we explored spatial distribution of soil erosion in the watershed by utilizing ArcGIS10.0, analyzed the average erosion modulus by different type of land use, and quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff and sediment load in changes. The results showed that: (1) From 1969–2015, both rainfall and air temperature increased, and air temperature increased significantly (p < 0.01) at 0.326 °C/10 a (annual). Runoff and sediment load decreased, and sediment load decreased significantly (p < 0.01) at 1.63 × 105 t/10 a. In 1988, air temperature experienced a sudden increase and sediment load decreased. (2) For runoff, R2 and Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (Ens) were 0.92 and 0.91 during the calibration period and 0.90 and 0.87 during the validation period, for sediment load, R2 and Ens were 0.60 and 0.55 during the calibration period and 0.70 and 0.69 during the validation period, meeting the model’s applicability requirements. (3) Soil erosion was worse in the upper basin than other regions, and highest in cultivated land. Climate change exacerbates runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of −26.54% and −8.8%, respectively. Human activities decreased runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of 126.54% and 108.8% respectively. Runoff and sediment load change in the Xihe River Basin are largely caused by human activities.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

2015 ◽  
Vol 368 ◽  
pp. 257-262
Author(s):  
K. Lin ◽  
W. Zhai ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
Z. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
South China ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Dongjiang River ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document