scholarly journals Possible influence of climate change on water balance over West Africa under the global warming levels of 2 and 3 °C

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mojisola Oluwayemisi Adeniyi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
And Storage ◽  
Storage Change ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Climate Model

Abstract Reliable projection of water balance components for the future over a climate change vulnerable region such as West Africa is exigent for proper adaptation strategies. This paper analyses the expected water balance in the 21st century over West Africa at 2 and 3 °C global warming level (GWL) based on Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RCA4) downscaled projections. Precipitation is expected to increase at the south-western (−5 to 10°N, 15 to 25°W) ocean area of West Africa domain with SW–NE orientation, towards the Sahel, while other areas would be drier, at 2 °C GWL. This would intensify under 3 °C GWL. Responses of evapotranspiration and storage change are similar to that of precipitation except for more spatial spread of increased evapotranspiration on the ocean. Runoff would increase over the ocean, Sahara and part of Sahel and reduce in Savannah and Guinea Coast under 2 °C GWL, but reduce under a warmer world with isolated increase.

scholarly journals Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 °C Global Warming on Water Balance Components over Senegal in West Africa

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 712
Author(s):  
Mamadou Lamine Mbaye ◽  
Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla ◽  
Moustapha Tall
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Water Deficit ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
The Future ◽  
Annual Water

This study assesses the changes in precipitation (P) and in evapotranspiration (ET) under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels (GWLs) over Senegal in West Africa. A set of twenty Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations within the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 emission scenario is used. Annual and seasonal changes are computed between climate simulations under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming, with respect to 0.5 °C warming, compared to pre-industrial levels. The results show that annual precipitation is likely to decrease under both magnitudes of warming; this decrease is also found during the main rainy season (July, August, September) only and is more pronounced under 2 °C warming. All reference evapotranspiration calculations, from Penman, Hamon, and Hargreaves formulations, show an increase in the future under the two GWLs, except annual Penman evapotranspiration under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. Furthermore, seasonal and annual water balances (P-ET) generally exhibit a water deficit. This water deficit (up to 180 mm) is more substantial with Penman and Hamon under 2 °C. In addition, analyses of changes in extreme precipitation reveal an increase in dry spells and a decrease in the number of wet days. However, Senegal may face a slight increase in very wet days (95th percentile), extremely wet days (99th), and rainfall intensity in the coming decades. Therefore, in the future, Senegal may experience a decline in precipitation, an increase of evapotranspiration, and a slight increase in heavy rainfall. Such changes could have serious consequences (e.g., drought, flood, etc.) for socioeconomic activities. Thus, strong governmental politics are needed to restrict the global mean temperature to avoid irreversible negative climate change impacts over the country. The findings of this study have contributed to a better understanding of local patterns of the Senegal hydroclimate under the two considered global warming scenarios.

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals 2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change Mitigation

Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.

Estimating the water balance and uncertainty bounds in a highly groundwater-dependent and data-scarce areas: An example for the upper Citarum basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Reinaldo Rusli ◽  
Albrecht Weerts ◽  
Victor Bense
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
Actual Evaporation ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Basin Water ◽  
Storage Change

<p>In this study, we estimate the water balance components of a highly groundwater-dependent and hydrological data-scarce basin of the upper reaches of the Citarum river in West Java, Indonesia. Firstly, we estimate the groundwater abstraction volumes based on population size and a review of literature (0.57mm/day). Estimates of other components like rainfall, actual evaporation, discharge, and total water storage changes are derived from global datasets and are simulated using a distributed hydrological wflow_sbm model which yields additional estimates of discharge, actual evaporation, and total water storage change. We compare each basin water balance estimate as well as quantify the uncertainty of some of the components using the Extended Triple Collocation (ETC) method.</p><p>The ETC application on four different rainfall estimates suggests a preference of using the CHIRPS product as the input to the water balance components estimates as it delivers the highest r<sup>2</sup>  and the lowest RMSE compared to three other sources. From the different data sources and results of the distributed hydrological modeling using CHIRPS as rainfall forcing, we estimate a positive groundwater storage change between 0.12 mm/day - 0.60 mm/day. These results are in agreement with groundwater storage change estimates based upon GRACE gravimetric satellite data, averaged at 0.25 mm/day. The positive groundwater storage change suggests sufficient groundwater recharge occurs compensating for groundwater abstraction. This conclusion seems in agreement with the observation since 2005, although measured in different magnitudes. To validate and narrow the estimated ranges of the basin water storage changes, a devoted groundwater model is necessary to be developed. The result shall also aid in assessing the current and future basin-scale groundwater level changes to support operational water management and policy in the Upper Citarum basin.</p>

scholarly journals Estimation of Water Storage Changes in Small Endorheic Lakes in Northern Kazakhstan; The Effect of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Influences 

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vadim Yapiyev ◽  
Kanat Samarkhanov ◽  
Dauren Zhumabayev ◽  
Nazym Tulegenova ◽  
Saltanat Jumassultanova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Minor Importance ◽  
Climatic Data

Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to the deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. Central Asian endorheic basins are among the most affected regions through both climate and human impacts. Here, we used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia (CA), for the period of 1986 to 2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, short-term hydrometeorological network observations, gridded climate datasets (CRU) and global atmospheric reanalysis (ERA Interim), we have evaluated the impacts of historical climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. We also discuss the future based on regional climate model projections. We attribute the overall decline of BNNP lakes to long-term deficit of water balance with lake evaporation loss exceeding precipitation inputs. Direct anthropogenic water abstraction has a minor importance in water balance. However, the changes in watersheds caused by the expansion of human settlements and roads disrupting water drainage may play a more significant role in lake water storage decline. More precise water resources assessment at the local scale will be facilitated by further development of freely available higher spatial resolution remote sensing products. In addition, the results of this work can be used for the development of lake/reservoir evaporation models driven by remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data without the direct use of ground observations.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

Analysis of extreme rains through climate indicators in the context of climate change in southern Benin

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1b) ◽  
pp. C20A01-1-C20A01-33
Author(s):  
Ferdinand Sourou HOUNVOU ◽  
◽  
K. F. Guedje ◽  
Hilaire Kougbeagbede ◽  
Adebiyi Joseph Adechinan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Entire Study Period ◽  
Entire Study ◽  
Climate Indicators ◽  
Large Growth ◽  
Southern Benin ◽  
Heavy Rains

The recurrence of flooding in recent years in West Africa is dramatically affecting the socio-economic system of most countries in the region. This work is devoted to the analysis of the heavy rains of its last years in the context of global warming in subequatorial Benin through eight rainfall indicators. For this purpose, the daily rains collected at seventeen stations in the south of Benin between 1960 and 2018, the maximum and minimum daily temperatures of the two synoptic stations in the study area between 1970 and 2018 are used. Analysis of the results shows a non-uniform trend in rainfall indicators over the entire study period. The monthly trend is in accordance with the bimodal rain regime of southern Benin for each of the climatic indicators studied. After the break in the downward trend in rainfall in the 1980s or 1990s at the various stations, the last three decades have been marked above all by ten-year averages of the various indicators that are higher than those obtained over the entire study period. Despite the low proportion of extreme rains, their frequency has increased since the resumption of rainfall in the 1980s or 1990s, especially compared to the 1970s and 1980s. The highest heights are observed for the most part in the towns close to the sea Atlantic Ocean. Global warming in southern Benin is characterized above all by high decadal temperature variation rates in the 1990s. This significant global warming in this pivotal decade is accompanied by relatively large growth in all indicators in southern Benin.

scholarly journals Assessing Variation in Water Balance Components in Mountainous Inland River Basin Experiencing Climate Change

Water ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenliang Yin ◽  
Qi Feng ◽  
Songbing Zou ◽  
Linshan Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Inland River ◽  
Inland River Basin
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