Drought forecasting: A review of modelling approaches 2007–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 771-799 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. F. Fung ◽  
Y. F. Huang ◽  
C. H. Koo ◽  
Y. W. Soh
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Drought Forecasting ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Resources Planning ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Modelling Approaches

Abstract Droughts are prolonged precipitation-deficient periods, resulting in inadequate water availability and adverse repercussions to crops, animals and humans. Drought forecasting is vital to water resources planning and management in minimizing the negative consequences. Many models have been developed for this purpose and, indeed, it would be a long process for researchers to select the best suited model for their research. A timely, thorough and informative overview of the models' concepts and historical applications would be helpful in preventing researchers from overlooking the potential selection of models and saving them considerable amounts of time on the problem. Thus, this paper aims to review drought forecasting approaches including their input requirements and performance measures, for 2007–2017. The models are categorized according to their respective mechanism: regression analysis, stochastic, probabilistic, artificial intelligence based, hybrids and dynamic modelling. Details of the selected papers, including modelling approaches, authors, year of publication, methods, input variables, evaluation criteria, time scale and type of drought are tabulated for ease of reference. The basic concepts of each approach with key parameters are explained, along with the historical applications, benefits and limitations of the models. Finally, future outlooks and potential modelling techniques are furnished for continuing drought research.

scholarly journals Desulphurisation of Biogas: A Systematic Qualitative and Economic-Based Quantitative Review of Alternative Strategies

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oseweuba Valentine Okoro ◽  
Zhifa Sun
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Comparison ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Qualitative Comparison ◽  
Quantitative Review ◽  
Current State ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
State Of Research ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Selection Of

The desulphurisation of biogas for hydrogen sulphide (H2S) removal constitutes a significant challenge in the area of biogas research. This is because the retention of H2S in biogas presents negative consequences on human health and equipment durability. The negative impacts are reflective of the potentially fatal and corrosive consequences reported when biogas containing H2S is inhaled and employed as a boiler biofuel, respectively. Recognising the importance of producing H2S-free biogas, this paper explores the current state of research in the area of desulphurisation of biogas. In the present paper, physical–chemical, biological, in-situ, and post-biogas desulphurisation strategies were extensively reviewed as the basis for providing a qualitative comparison of the strategies. Additionally, a review of the costing data combined with an analysis of the inherent data uncertainties due underlying estimation assumptions have also been undertaken to provide a basis for quantitative comparison of the desulphurisation strategies. It is anticipated that the combination of the qualitative and quantitative comparison approaches employed in assessing the desulphurisation strategies reviewed in the present paper will aid in future decisions involving the selection of the preferred biogas desulphurisation strategy to satisfy specific economic and performance-related targets.

scholarly journals Optimization of the Concrete Delivery and Placement Process Using a Simulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Juraj Talian
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Systems ◽  
Fresh Concrete ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Construction Process ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Exact Methods ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract Integrated construction processes are stochastic systems. For these cases a computer simulation is used. This paper presents the design and construction of an integrated construction process, i.e., the production-transportation-consumption of fresh concrete. When creating a model in an Extend v4, modelling techniques and a general knowledge of construction are used. Data obtained from actual processes is used for the model parameters and input variables. The main contribution is a simulation model developed for the process for the optimization and selection of variants. This approach complements the heuristic methods of the assessment of construction processes and exact methods, where the decisive body will have the values of the individual decision-making criteria.

scholarly journals Scientometric Analysis-Based Review for Drought Modelling, Indices, Types, and Forecasting Especially in Asia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 2593
Author(s):  
Dan Wu ◽  
Yanan Li ◽  
Hui Kong ◽  
Tingting Meng ◽  
Zenghui Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Stochastic Modelling ◽  
Research Trend ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Scientometric Analysis ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Drought Forecasting ◽  
Drought Period ◽  
Relevant Publication ◽  
Development And Management

An extended drought period with low precipitation can result in low water availability and issues for humans, animals, and plants. Drought forecasting is critical for water resource development and management as it helps to reduce negative consequences. In this study, scientometric analysis and manual comprehensive analysis on drought modelling and forecasting are used. A scientometric analysis is used to determine the current research trend using bibliometric data and to identify relevant publication field sources with the most publications, the most frequently used keywords, the most cited articles and authors, and the countries that have made the greatest contributions to the field of water resources. This paper also tries to provide an overview of water issues, such as drought classification, drought indices, historical droughts, and their impact on Asian countries such as China, Pakistan, India, and Iran. There have been many models established for this purpose and choosing the appropriate model for study is a long procedure for researchers. An appropriate, comprehensive, pedagogical study of model ideas and historical implementations would benefit researchers by helping them to avoid overlooking viable model options, thus reducing their time spent on the topic. As a result, the goal of this paper is to review drought-forecasting approaches and recommend the best models for the Asian region. The models are divided into four categories based on their mechanisms: Regression analysis, stochastic modelling, machine learning, and dynamic modelling. The basic concepts of each approach in terms of the model’s historical use, benefits, and limitations are explained. Finally, prospects for future drought research in Asia are discussed as well as potential modelling techniques.

Dynamic Modelling of Wind Farms: a Comparative Study Between Two Modelling Approaches

2003 ◽  
Vol 1 (01) ◽  
pp. 441-445
Author(s):  
I. Zubia ◽  
◽  
S.K. Salman ◽  
X. Ostolaza ◽  
G. Tapia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Study ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Modelling Approaches

Optimal adaptive inspection and maintenance for redundant systems

2021 ◽  
pp. 1748006X2110201
Author(s):  
Chaochao Lin ◽  
Matteo Pozzi
Keyword(s):  
Engineering Systems ◽  
Discounted Cost ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
Inspection And Maintenance ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Partially Observable ◽  
Series Systems ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Redundant Systems

Optimal exploration of engineering systems can be guided by the principle of Value of Information (VoI), which accounts for the topological important of components, their reliability and the management costs. For series systems, in most cases higher inspection priority should be given to unreliable components. For redundant systems such as parallel systems, analysis of one-shot decision problems shows that higher inspection priority should be given to more reliable components. This paper investigates the optimal exploration of redundant systems in long-term decision making with sequential inspection and repairing. When the expected, cumulated, discounted cost is considered, it may become more efficient to give higher inspection priority to less reliable components, in order to preserve system redundancy. To investigate this problem, we develop a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) framework for sequential inspection and maintenance of redundant systems, where the VoI analysis is embedded in the optimal selection of exploratory actions. We investigate the use of alternative approximate POMDP solvers for parallel and more general systems, compare their computation complexities and performance, and show how the inspection priorities depend on the economic discount factor, the degradation rate, the inspection precision, and the repair cost.

scholarly journals A Multiple Criteria Decision Making Method to Weight the Sustainability Criteria of System Selection for Surface Mining

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3066
Author(s):  
Michał Patyk ◽  
Przemysław Bodziony ◽  
Zbigniew Krysa
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Performance Assessment ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Surface Mining ◽  
Open Pit ◽  
Mining Equipment ◽  
Surface Mines ◽  
Mining Conditions ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Selection Of

Selection and assessment of mining equipment used in open pit rock mines relies chiefly on estimates of overall exploitation cost. The rational arrangement of mining equipment and systems comprising loading machines, haul trucks and crushing plants should be preceded by a thorough analysis of technical and economic aspects, such as investment outlays and the costs of further exploitation, which largely determine the costs of mining operations and the deposit value. Additionally, the operational parameters of the mining equipment ought to be considered. In this study, a universal set of evaluation criteria has been developed, and an evaluation method has been applied for the selection of surface mining equipment and the processing system to be operated in specific mining conditions, defined by the user. The objective of this study is to develop and apply the new methodology of multi-criteria selection of open pit rock mining equipment based on multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) procedures, to enable the optimization of loading, handling and crushing processes. The methodology, underpinned by the principles of MCDM, provides the dedicated ranking procedures, including the ELECTRE III. The applied methodology allows the alternative options (variants) to be ranked accordingly. Ultimately, a more universal methodology is developed, applicable in other surface mines where geological and mining conditions are similar. It may prove particularly useful in selection and performance assessment of mining equipment and process line configurations in mining of low-quality rock deposits. Therefore, we undertook to develop universal criteria and applications for the selection and performance assessment of process machines for surface mines, taking into account environmental aspects as well as deposit quality.

scholarly journals Applications of soft computing models for predicting sea surface temperature: a comprehensive review and assessment

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masoud Haghbin ◽  
Ahmad Sharafati ◽  
Davide Motta ◽  
Nadhir Al-Ansari ◽  
Mohamadreza Hosseinian Moghadam Noghani
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Soft Computing ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Linear Processes ◽  
Comprehensive Review ◽  
Droughts And Floods ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Computing Models

AbstractThe application of soft computing (SC) models for predicting environmental variables is widely gaining popularity, because of their capability to describe complex non-linear processes. The sea surface temperature (SST) is a key quantity in the analysis of sea and ocean systems, due to its relation with water quality, organisms, and hydrological events such as droughts and floods. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the SC model applications for estimating SST over the last two decades. Types of model (based on artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, or other SC techniques), input variables, data sources, and performance indices are discussed. Existing trends of research in this field are identified, and possible directions for future investigation are suggested.

scholarly journals Evaluation and Selection of Integrated Energy System Construction Scheme Equipped with Smart Energy Management and Control Platform Using Single-Valued Neutrosophic Numbers

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2615
Author(s):  
Junqing Wang ◽  
Wenhui Zhao ◽  
Lu Qiu ◽  
Puyu Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Energy Management ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Energy System ◽  
System Construction ◽  
Interval Numbers ◽  
Construction Scheme ◽  
Smart Energy Management ◽  
Integrated Energy System ◽  
And Control ◽  
Selection Of

Since application of integrated energy systems (IESs) has formed a markedly increasing trend recently, selecting an appropriate integrated energy system construction scheme becomes essential to the energy supplier. This paper aims to develop a multi-criteria decision-making model for the evaluation and selection of an IES construction scheme equipped with smart energy management and control platform. Firstly, a comprehensive evaluation criteria system including economy, energy, environment, technology and service is established. The evaluation criteria system is divided into quantitative criteria denoted by interval numbers and qualitative criteria. Secondly, single-valued neutrosophic numbers are adopted to denote the qualitative criteria in the evaluation criteria system. Thirdly, in order to accommodate mixed data types consisting of both interval numbers and single-valued neutrosophic numbers, the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution) method is extended into a three-stage technique by introducing a fusion coefficient μ. Then, a real case in China is evaluated through applying the proposed method. Furthermore, a comprehensive discussion is made to analyze the evaluation result and verify the reliability and stability of the method. In short, this study provides a useful tool for the energy supplier to evaluate and select a preferred IES construction scheme.

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