Modeling impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow, nitrate, and ammonium in the Kor River, southwest of Iran

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 818-834 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir Asadi Vaighan ◽  
Nasser Talebbeydokhti ◽  
Alireza Massah Bavani ◽  
Paul Whitehead
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Kor River ◽  
Southwest Of Iran ◽  
Catchment Model

Abstract This study examined the separate and combined impacts of future changes in climate and land use on streamflow, nitrate and ammonium in the Kor River Basin, southwest of Iran, using the representative concentration pathway 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Different land use and climate change scenarios were used and the streamflow, nitrate and ammonium in the future period (2020–2049) under these scenarios were simulated by Integrated Catchment Model for Nitrogen (INCA–N). Results indicated that climate change will increase streamflows and decrease nitrate and ammonium concentrations in summer and autumn. Land use changes were found to have a little impact on streamflows but a significant impact on water quality, particularly under an urban development scenario. Under combined scenarios, larger seasonal changes in streamflows and mixed changes of nitrate and ammonium concentrations were predicted.

scholarly journals Threats of future climate change and land use to vulnerable tree species native to Southern California

2014 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
ERIN C. RIORDAN ◽  
THOMAS W. GILLESPIE ◽  
LINCOLN PITCHER ◽  
STEPHANIE S. PINCETL ◽  
G. DARREL JENERETTE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Habitat Loss ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel

SUMMARYClimate and land-use changes are expected to drive high rates of environmental change and biodiversity loss in Mediterranean ecosystems this century. This paper compares the relative future impacts of land use and climate change on two vulnerable tree species native to Southern California (Juglans californica and Quercus engelmannii) using species distribution models. Under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's A1B future scenario, high levels of both projected land use and climate change could drive considerable habitat losses on these two already heavily-impacted tree species. Under scenarios of no dispersal, projected climate change poses a greater habitat loss threat relative to projected land use for both species. Assuming unlimited dispersal, climate-driven habitat gains could offset some of the losses due to both drivers, especially in J. californica which could experience net habitat gains under combined impacts of both climate change and land use. Quercus engelmannii, in contrast, could experience net habitat losses under combined impacts, even under best-case unlimited dispersal scenarios. Similarly, projected losses and gains in protected habitat are highly sensitive to dispersal scenario, with anywhere from > 60% loss in protected habitat (no dispersal) to > 170% gain in protected habitat (unlimited dispersal). The findings underscore the importance of dispersal in moderating future habitat loss for vulnerable species.

scholarly journals Modeling the combined impact of future climate and land use changes on streamflow of Xinjiang Basin, China

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 356-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renhua Yan ◽  
Jiacong Huang ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Junfeng Gao ◽  
Lingyan Qi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Evolution

The response of hydrologic circulation to climate and land use changes is important in studying the historical, present, and future evolution of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 multi-model ensemble and a raster-based Xin'anjiang model were applied to simulate future streamflows under three climate change scenarios and two land use/cover change conditions in the Xinjiang Basin, China, and to investigate the combined effect of future climate and land use/cover changes on streamflow. Simulation results indicated that future climate and land use/cover changes affect not only the seasonal distributions of streamflow, but also the annual amounts of streamflow. For each climate scenario, the average monthly streamflows increase by more than 4% in autumn and early winter, while decreasing by more than −26% in spring and summer for the 21st century. The annual streamflows present a clear decreasing trend of −27%. Compared with land use/cover change, climate change affects streamflow change more. Land use/cover change can mitigate the climate change effect from January to August and enhance it in other months. These results can provide scientific information for regional water resources management and land use planning in the future.

scholarly journals Agricultural and Forestry Land and Labor Use under Long-Term Climate Change in Chile

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 305
Author(s):  
Oscar Melo ◽  
William Foster
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Income Generation ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Average Output ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Municipal Level

The appropriate design of land-use and rural employment policies depends upon the anticipated performance of the farm sector in the context of expected climate changes, especially with respect to land allocations to potential activities. Concerns over the possible net benefits of land-use changes are particularly acute in lower- and middle-income countries, where agriculture tends to be important in employment, income generation and foreign-exchange earnings. This paper presents an analysis of the expected impacts on land use in Chile of projected climate-change scenarios in 2040 and 2070. We developed a farmland allocation model with associated labor employment at the municipal level driven by expected relative net incomes per hectare, constructed from local average per-hectare yields, regional average output prices and per-hectare production cost estimates. The sensitivities of cropland allocations to relative net-income changes were estimated using historical land allocations at the municipal level derived from the last two Chilean Agricultural Censuses. The results show that the impacts of climate changes will be mitigated by land-use adaptation, the main export-earning crops tending to move south; in aggregate, agricultural employment will decrease in all the climate-change scenarios; forestry and agriculture would likely suffer a loss in net-income generation under severe climate-change scenarios.

scholarly journals Multi-gas and multi-source comparisons of six land use emission datasets and AFOLU estimates in the Fifth Assessment Report

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta ◽  
Martin Herold ◽  
Mariana C. Rufino ◽  
Todd S. Rosenstock ◽  
Richard A. Houghton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Forest Sector ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Enteric Fermentation ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Ipcc Guidelines ◽  
Agricultural Emissions ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector contributes with ca. 20–25 % of global anthropogenic emissions (2010), making it a key component of any climate change mitigation strategy. AFOLU estimates remain, however, highly uncertain, jeopardizing the mitigation effectiveness of this sector. Global comparisons of AFOLU emissions have shown divergences of up to 25 %, urging for improved understanding on the reasons behind these differences. Here we compare a diversity of AFOLU emission datasets (e.g. FAOSTAT, EDGAR, the newly developed AFOLU "Hotspots", "Houghton", "Baccini", and EPA) and estimates given in the Fifth Assessment Report, for the tropics (2000–2005), to identify plausible explanations for the differences in: i) aggregated gross AFOLU emissions, and ii) disaggregated emissions by sources, and by gases (CO2, CH4, N2O). We also aim to iii) identify countries with low agreement among AFOLU datasets, to navigate research efforts. Aggregated gross emissions were similar for all databases for the AFOLU: 8.2 (5.5–12.2), 8.4 and 8.0 Pg CO2e. yr−1 (Hotspots, FAOSTAT and EDGAR respectively), Forests: 6.0 (3.8–10), 5.9, 5.9 and 5.4 Pg CO2e. yr−1 (Hotspots, FAOSTAT, EDGAR, and Houghton), and Agricultural sectors: 1.9 (1.5–2.5), 2.0, 2.1, and 2.0 Pg CO2e. yr−1 (Hotspots, FAOSTAT, EDGAR, and EPA). However, this agreement was lost when disaggregating by sources, continents, and gases, particularly for the forest sector (fire leading the differences). Agricultural emissions were more homogeneous, especially livestock, while croplands were the most diverse. CO2 showed the largest differences among datasets. Cropland soils and enteric fermentation led the smaller N2O and CH4 differences. Disagreements are explained by differences in conceptual frameworks (e.g. carbon-only vs multi-gas assessments, definitions, land use versus land cover, etc), in methods (Tiers, scales, compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines, legacies, etc) and in assumptions (e.g. carbon neutrality of certain emissions, instantaneous emissions release, etc) that call for more complete and transparent documentation for all the available datasets. Enhanced dialogue between the carbon (CO2) and the AFOLU (multi-gas) communities is needed to reduce discrepancies of land use estimates.

scholarly journals Scenario-based impacts of land use and climate changes on the hydrology of a lowland rainforest catchment in Ghana, West Africa

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Aduah ◽  
Graham P. W. Jewitt ◽  
Michele L. W. Toucher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Land Use Scenarios

Abstract. This study analysed the separate and the combined impacts of climate and land use changes on hydrology on the Bonsa catchment in Ghana, West Africa, using the ACRU hydrological model. The study used five RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (wet, 25th percentile, 75th percentile, dry and a multi-model median of nine GCMs) from the CMIP5 AR5 models for near (2020–2039) and far (2060–2079) future time slices. Change factors were used to downscale the GCM scenarios to the local scale, using observed climate data for the control period of 1990 to 2009. The land use of 1991 and 2011 were used as the baseline and current land use as well as three future land use scenarios (BAU, EG, EGR) for two time slices (2030 and 2070) were used. The study showed that under all separate climate change scenarios, overall flows reduced, but under combined climate and land use changes, streamflows increased. Under the combined scenarios, streamflow responses due to the different future land use scenarios were not substantially different. Also, land use is the dominant controlling factor in streamflow changes in the Bonsa catchment under a dry climate change, but under a wet climate change, climate controls streamflow changes. The spatial variability of catchment streamflow changes under combined land use and climate changes were greater than the spatial variability of streamflow changes under climate change. The range of plausible future streamflows changes derived in this study provides natural resources and environmental managers of the Bonsa catchment, the first ever and the most current information to develop suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies, to prepare adequately for climate and land use changes.

Cultivated floodplains of the Cambodian Mekong delta: understanding the changing balance between the flow regime and the agricultural practices

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Anna Orieschnig ◽  
Gilles Belaud ◽  
Jean-Philippe Venot ◽  
Sylvain Massuel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Fruit Trees ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Water

<p>On the floodplains of the Cambodian Mekong Delta, rainfed and irrigated dry-season agriculture is a crucial source of revenue for the local population. Traditional rice production is being progressively complemented by the cultivation of higher-value crops like maize, fruit trees and vegetables. Fundamentally, the annual monsoon regime and the resulting flood dynamics determine the framework for these agricultural practices, with a wet season lasting from June to November and a peak high flow reached in September. Rice is cultivated after flood recession in lower-lying areas. On higher terrain, fruit trees and vegetables are widely irrigated by farmers using individual pumps to lift water from large-scale communal channels.</p><p><br>However, in recent years, various drivers of change have impacted these long-established dynamics. Climate change is causing shifting precipitation patterns and a modification of annual flow regimes in the Mekong river and its deltaic distributaries. In addition, the irrigation channel infrastructure is being largely rehabilitated by both local initiatives and international development agencies. These measures are rapidly changing the conveyance network for inundation, drainage, and irrigation on the floodplains, with proportions and consequences which are yet unknown. Finally, land use changes driven by market forces - such as the shift to cash crops like mango trees - are modifying the crop water demand in the area. </p><p><br>In this context, the present study aims to provide a thorough understanding and quantification of the effects of these changes with regard to crop water requirements, irrigation efficiency, and agricultural productivity. Extensive fieldwork was carried out on a 44-km² area to gather knowledge of agricultural practices (especially irrigation) and to identify the main local hydrological objects and drivers. The land use and seasonal inundation extents were characterized through remote sensing analyses, using optical Sentinel-2 and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Sentinel-1 images. On that basis, an eco-hydrological model is being developed on the generic software platform OpenFLUID, explicitly representing the hydraulic connections and irrigation decisions. This tool will be used to highlight possible salient control factors for hydrological processes, and to simulate the direct and indirect effects of climate change scenarios, irrigation and water power infrastructure development, and land use changes on local hydrology, irrigation, and agricultural productivity. </p>

scholarly journals Major United States Land Use as Influenced by an Altering Climate: A Spatial Econometric Approach

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 546
Author(s):  
Sung-Ju Cho ◽  
Bruce McCarl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Spatial Effects ◽  
Pasture Grass ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
The U.S

Climate and socioeconomic and policy factors are found to stimulate land use changes along with changes in greenhouse gas emissions and adaption behaviors. Most of the studies investigating land use changes in the U.S. have not considered potential spatial effects explicitly. We used a two-step linearized multinomial logit to examine the impacts of various factors on conterminous U.S. land use changes including spatial lag coefficients. The estimation results show that the spatial dependences have existed for cropland, pastureland, and grasslands with a negative dependence on forests but weakened in most of the land uses except for croplands. Temperature and precipitation were found to have nonlinear impacts on the land use shares in the succeeding years by exerting opposite effects on crop versus pasture/grass shares. We also predicted land use changes under different climate change scenarios. The simulation results imply that the southern regions of the U.S. would lose cropland shares with further severity under the business-as-usual climate scenarios, while the land use shares for pasture/grass and forest would increase in those regions. As land use plays an important role in the climate system and vice versa, the results from this study may help policymakers tackle climate-driven land use changes and farmers adapt to climate change.

scholarly journals Lorenz Atmospheric Energy Cycle in Climatic Projections

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 180
Author(s):  
Silas Michaelides
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Atmospheric Energy ◽  
Energy Cycle ◽  
Lorenz Energy Cycle

The aim of this study is to investigate whether different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as they are determined in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), lead to different regimes in the energetics components of the Lorenz energy cycle. The four energy forms on which this investigation is based are the zonal and eddy components of the available potential and kinetic energies. The corresponding transformations between these forms of energy are also studied. RCPs are time-dependent, consistent scenarios of concentrations of radiatively active gases and particles. In the present study, four RCPs are explored, namely, rcp26, rcp45, rcp60, rcp85; these represent projections (for the future period 2006–2100) that result in radiative forcing of approximately 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 Wm−2 at year 2100, respectively, relative to pre-industrial conditions. The results are presented in terms of time projections of the energetics components from 2020 to 2100 and show that the different RCPs yield diverse energetics regimes, consequently impacting the Lorenz energy cycle. In this respect, projections under different RCPs of the Lorenz energy cycle are presented.

Hydrologic impacts of climate change and urbanization in the Las Vegas Wash Watershed, Nevada

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 598-620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanna T. Y. Tong ◽  
Heng Yang ◽  
Heyin Chen ◽  
Jeffrey Y. Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Las Vegas ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Future

A cell-based model for the Las Vegas Wash Watershed in Clark County, Nevada, USA, was developed by combining the Thornthwaite water balance model and the Soil Conservation Survey's Curve Number method with pixel-based computing technology. After the model was validated, it was used to predict the 2030 and 2050 hydrologic conditions under future scenarios of climate and land-use changes. The future climate projections were based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) B1 climate scenario, and the land-use scenarios were derived from a CA-Markov land-use model. Results indicate that under these hypothetical conditions, the future surface runoff in the watershed will significantly decrease in winters but increase in summers. Climate change will be the primary controlling factor over runoff. Urban development is projected to increase runoff and may contribute 1.1–18.7% of the changes. This finding may be useful in devising future urban development plans and water management policies.

scholarly journals Multi-gas and multi-source comparisons of six land use emission datasets and AFOLU estimates in the Fifth Assessment Report, for the tropics for 2000–2005

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 5799-5819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta ◽  
Martin Herold ◽  
Mariana C. Rufino ◽  
Todd S. Rosenstock ◽  
Richard A. Houghton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Environmental Protection Agency ◽  
Forest Sector ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Enteric Fermentation ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Food And Agriculture Organization ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector contributes with ca. 20–25 % of global anthropogenic emissions (2010), making it a key component of any climate change mitigation strategy. AFOLU estimates, however, remain highly uncertain, jeopardizing the mitigation effectiveness of this sector. Comparisons of global AFOLU emissions have shown divergences of up to 25 %, urging for improved understanding of the reasons behind these differences. Here we compare a variety of AFOLU emission datasets and estimates given in the Fifth Assessment Report for the tropics (2000–2005) to identify plausible explanations for the differences in (i) aggregated gross AFOLU emissions, and (ii) disaggregated emissions by sources and gases (CO2, CH4, N2O). We also aim to (iii) identify countries with low agreement among AFOLU datasets to navigate research efforts. The datasets are FAOSTAT (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Statistics Division), EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), the newly developed AFOLU “Hotspots”, “Houghton”, “Baccini”, and EPA (US Environmental Protection Agency) datasets. Aggregated gross emissions were similar for all databases for the AFOLU sector: 8.2 (5.5–12.2), 8.4, and 8.0 Pg CO2 eq. yr−1 (for Hotspots, FAOSTAT, and EDGAR respectively), forests reached 6.0 (3.8–10), 5.9, 5.9, and 5.4 Pg CO2 eq. yr−1 (Hotspots, FAOSTAT, EDGAR, and Houghton), and agricultural sectors were with 1.9 (1.5–2.5), 2.5, 2.1, and 2.0 Pg CO2 eq. yr−1 (Hotspots, FAOSTAT, EDGAR, and EPA). However, this agreement was lost when disaggregating the emissions by sources, continents, and gases, particularly for the forest sector, with fire leading the differences. Agricultural emissions were more homogeneous, especially from livestock, while those from croplands were the most diverse. CO2 showed the largest differences among the datasets. Cropland soils and enteric fermentation led to the smaller N2O and CH4 differences. Disagreements are explained by differences in conceptual frameworks (carbon-only vs. multi-gas assessments, definitions, land use vs. land cover, etc.), in methods (tiers, scales, compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines, legacies, etc.) and in assumptions (carbon neutrality of certain emissions, instantaneous emissions release, etc.) which call for more complete and transparent documentation for all the available datasets. An enhanced dialogue between the carbon (CO2) and the AFOLU (multi-gas) communities is needed to reduce discrepancies of land use estimates.

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