Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 799-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tesfa Worku ◽  
Deepak Khare ◽  
S. K. Tripathi
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Concentration Index ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Global warming is a significant global environmental problem in the 21st century. The problem is high in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the population live on rainfed agriculture. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. The Mann–Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 °C/year, respectively. Based on PCI results, rainfall during the summer and spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to annual and winter season rainfall. Based on these observations, the rainfall pattern and distribution of the area could be classified as irregular and erratic distribution. Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. In view of this, the incidence of food shortage is a common occurrence. Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged.

An Assessment of MJO Circulation Influence on Air–Sea Interactions for Improved Seasonal Rainfall Predictions over East Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 8367-8379
Author(s):  
Margaret Kimani ◽  
Joost C. B. Hoedjes ◽  
Zhongbo Su
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
The Impact

AbstractRainfall variability affects agriculture planning and water resource management. In extreme flood and drought events, lives and property are destroyed. This study aims to improve East Africa’s seasonal rainfall prediction by determining the impact of the standard eight Real-time Multivariate Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) (RMM) phases on rainfall and using sea surface temperature (SST) response to test the predictability of the March–May (MAM) and October–December (OND) main rainfall seasons over a period of 33 years (1981–2013). Pearson correlation patterns, composite maps, and regression analyses were applied, and the Brier skill score (BSS) and correlation coefficients (CC) were utilized as validation metrics. Low correspondence of rainfall to MJO 1 and MJO 2 was observed except for the months of November and December. Seasonally, MAM and OND correlation patterns with MJO 2 revealed enhanced rainfall over the highlands and insignificant correspondence over coastal areas. Conversely, enhanced MJO 8 corresponded to suppressed rainfall during the June–August season over the coast and the eastern highlands. MAM rainfall was shown to be predictable using Maritime Continent SST indices, with a BSS of 0.41, while OND rainfall was shown to be predictable using Atlantic and Maritime Continent SSTs with a BSS of 0.62. Positive and negative MJO 2 corresponded, respectively, to enhanced and suppressed rainfall during the OND season and was confirmed to be related to, respectively, a positive and negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). An IOD year could possibly be triggered by changes in MJO 2 amplitudes observed as early peaks between February and June.

scholarly journals Taluka Wise Study of Rainfall Pattern in Nanded District of Marthwada Region (Maharashtra) Using Rainfall Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 333-350
Author(s):  
Ramesh Bethala B. V. Asewar ◽  
M. S. Peneke K. K. Dakhore ◽  
M. G. Jadhav A. M. Khobragade
Keyword(s):  
Crop Production ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Annual Basis ◽  
Rainy Days ◽  
Onset Of Monsoon

About 60 per cent of the total cultivable area of the country is rainfed. However, prolonged dry periods affect the final crop production. Monsoon is an important season for water supplies, from surface reservoir. Uneven distribution of rainfall, affect the agricultural production remarkably. The daily rainfall data was collected for each taluka of Nanded district for the period of 20 years (1998-2017) and it was to be summed up on meteorological weekly, monthly, seasonally, annual basis for each taluka of Nanded district basis for the study of rainfall characterization. The results indicated that weekly mean annual basis total rainfall was ranged between 720.0 mm in Deglur and 1009.9 mm in Mahur. The weekly highest rainfall on annual basis was recorded in Himayat Nagar (53.7 mm) in the 30th MW amongst all the taluka considering monsoon period (23 to 42 MW). The monthly mean rainfall indicated that the lowest and highest monthly mean rainfall amongst all the taluka was observed in Nanded, Kandhar, Loha, Hadgaon, Bhokar, Kinwat, Mahur, Dharmabad, Ardhapur, Naigaon talukas (0.0 mm) in the December month and in the Mahur taluka (283.1 mm) in July month. The seasonal distribution of Nanded district was obtained in winter season (6.1 mm), in summer (15.5 mm), in monsoon (578.3 mm), in post monsoon (216.6 mm). The annual rainfall data is statistical analyzed for Nanded district and within the year and taluka to taluka ranged C.V. (%) were between 25.0 to 46.9 %. The data of taluka-wise annual normal of weather parameter (i.e. rainfall and rainy days) calculated. Here, the results indicated that the onset of monsoon was observed in 23th MW and withdrawal in 43rd MW in Nanded district. It showed that average rainfall of Nanded district is 816.4 mm with 45.0 rainy days per year. The results clearly indicated the onset of monsoon in 23th MW and withdrawal of monsoon in 43rd MW for the Nanded district should be considered. The statistical analysis for rainfall variability was worked out and it was intra-annual as well as intra-taluka variation in Nanded district. It was ranged between 19.0 to 51.0 per cent with annual mean 45.0 rainy days per year.

scholarly journals Regularity of rainfall timing across Ethiopia: implications for crop production

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mosisa Wakjira ◽  
Darcy Molnar ◽  
Nadav Peleg ◽  
Johan Six ◽  
Peter Molnar
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Relative Entropy ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Regime ◽  
Cereal Crop ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
The Impact

<p>Rainfall timing is a key parameter that farmers rely on to match the cropping season with the time window over which seasonal precipitation provides adequate soil moisture to meet plant growth demand. The unpredictability of rainfall timing affects the selection of an optimal growing season, and hence crop production in regions where rainfed agriculture (RFA) is practiced. In this study, we (a) map rainfall timing, and its interannual variability and changes over RFA areas across Ethiopia for the period 1981-2010, and (b) explore the impact of variability in rainfall timing on cereal crop production in the period 1995-2010.</p><p>For the mapping of rainfall timing, we used the quasi-global CHIRPS precipitation dataset over Ethiopia. We use information entropy on monthly rainfall to define the rainfall seasonality metrics, i.e. the relative entropy and dimensionless seasonality index, and map them in space. For rainfall timing attributes, we determine the onset, cessation, and length of the wet season from LOESS-smoothed cumulative pentad rainfall anomalies for each hydrological year. Changes in seasonality metrics and rainfall timing attributes are analyzed using non-parametric methods. We show that high seasonality (unimodal rainfall regime) is located in the northern part of the Ethiopian RFA area where high annual rainfall and high relative entropy are coincident, and where the onset of the rainfall season varies between mid-April to late-June and cessation occurs between mid-September to late-October. Low seasonality in the southern part of the Ethiopian RFA area shows low relative entropy regardless of the annual rainfall total. We observed a considerable interannual variability both in seasonality and rainfall timing over the study period, especially in the onset and length of the wet season. The length of the wet season and magnitude of seasonal rainfall are predominantly controlled by the timing of rainfall onset.</p><p>For the impacts of rainfall timing on crop production, we used cereal crop production data from the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia for the period 1995-2010 in 45 administrative zones. We carried out a parametric correlation analysis between rainfall timing and rescaled and de-trended crop production anomalies. We observe that anomalies in seasonal cereal crop production in RFA areas are significantly correlated with anomalies in rainfall onset (negatively) and the length of the wet season (positively), with a regional average production loss of 3% per pentad of late rainfall onset, and 2.7% per pentad of shorter length of the wet season. Seasonal rainfall is less strongly correlated with cereal crop production anomalies compared to the rainfall onset. These results show that the interannual variability in rainfall timing (start of the rainy season) even under present climate has strong impacts on crop yields in RFA areas in Ethiopia, and this may be exacerbated in a future climate.</p>

scholarly journals Rainfall trend analysis using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator test in West Kalimantan

2021 ◽  
Vol 893 (1) ◽  
pp. 012006
Author(s):  
F Aditya ◽  
E Gusmayanti ◽  
J Sudrajat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
West Kalimantan ◽  
Rainfall Analysis ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Rainfall Trends ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change has been a prominent issue in the last decade. Climate change on a global scale does not necessarily have the same effect in different regions. Rainfall is a crucial weather element related to climate change. Rainfall trends analysis is an appropriate step in assessing the impact of climate change on water availability and food security. This study examines rainfall variations and changes at West Kalimantan, focusing on Mempawah and Kubu Raya from 2000-2019. The Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's Slope estimator test, which can determine rainfall variability and long-term monotonic trends, were utilized to analyze 12 rainfall stations. The findings revealed that the annual rainfall pattern prevailed in all locations. Mempawah region tends to experience a downward trend, while Kubu Raya had an upward trend. However, a significant trend (at 95% confidence level) was identified in Sungai Kunyit with a slope value of -33.20 mm/year. This trend indicates that Sungai Kunyit will become drier in the future. The results of monthly rainfall analysis showed that significant upward and downward trends were detected in eight locations. Rainfall trends indicate that climate change has occurred in this region.

The Impact of Customer Service, Insurance and Luggage Delivery Towards Logistics Customer Satisfaction in Pandemic Situation

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 4999-5004
Author(s):  
Mohd Fathi Abu Yaziz Et. al.
Keyword(s):  
Customer Satisfaction ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Business Model ◽  
Quantitative Method ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Logistics Industry ◽  
Pearson Correlation Analysis ◽  
Customer Services ◽  
The Impact

As the pandemic of Covid 19 has directly affected the business industry, the business model has changed, including the logistics industry, especially the courier company. Courier company has benefited the most during this pandemic situation as the e-commerce business flourished. Enhanced service by courier company is crucial as stiff competition in the industry. Therefore, this study explores the impact of customer service, insurance, and luggage delivery on logistics customer satisfaction. A quantitative method was employed to analyse the effects of enhanced services of customer services, insurance, and luggage delivery towards logistics customer satisfaction, where 384 responses were collected from respondents identified as active users of courier services for the last 12 months. IBM SPSS was used to analyse the response collected using descriptive, reliability and Pearson Correlation analysis. As a result, it is justifiable that customer service, insurance, and luggage delivery positively impact logistics customer satisfactio

scholarly journals Seasonal and Annual Rainfall Variability and Their Impact on Rural Water Supply Services in the Wami River Basin, Tanzania

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sekela Twisa ◽  
Manfred F. Buchroithner
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Water Supply Systems ◽  
Rural Water Supply ◽  
Rural Water ◽  
Water Supply Services

In some parts of Africa, rainfall variability has resulted in widespread droughts and floods, thus posing a substantial challenge to water availability in rural areas, especially drinking water. Therefore, due to increasing water demands, increases in the population, and economic development, water supply systems are under constant stress. One of the critical uncertainties surrounding the effects of rainfall variability in Africa is the significant impact that it imposes on rural water supply services. The present study analyzes the trends in annual and seasonal rainfall time series in the Wami River Basin to see if there have been any significant changes in the patterns during the period 1983–2017 and how they affect the access to water supply services in rural areas. The study analyzes the trends of rainfall series of three stations using simple regression, Mann–Kendal Test and Sen’s Slope Estimator. The water point mapping datasets were analyzed considering seasonal variation. The analysis showed a statistically significant positive trend in annual rainfall at Kongwa and March–April–May (MAM) seasonal rainfall at Dakawa. The maximum increase in annual rainfall occurred at Kongwa (5.3 mm year−1) and for MAM seasonal data at Dakawa (4.1 mm year−1). Water points were found to be significantly affected by seasonal changes, both in terms of availability and quality of water. There also exists a strong relationship between rural water services and seasons.

scholarly journals Cereal Production Trends under Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Southern Africa

Agriculture ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luxon Nhamo ◽  
Greenwell Mathcaya ◽  
Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi ◽  
Sibusiso Nhlengethwa ◽  
Charles Nhemachena ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Cereal Production ◽  
The Impact

The increasing frequency and intensity of droughts and floods, coupled with increasing temperatures and declining rainfall totals, are exacerbating existing vulnerabilities in southern Africa. Agriculture is the most affected sector as 95% of cultivated area is rainfed. This review addressed trends in moisture stress and the impacts on crop production, highlighting adaptation possible strategies to ensure food security in southern Africa. Notable changes in rainfall patterns and deficiencies in soil moisture are estimated and discussed, as well as the impact of rainfall variability on crop production and proposed adaptation strategies in agriculture. Climate moisture index (CMI) was used to assess aridity levels. Southern Africa is described as a climate hotspot due to increasing aridity, low adaptive capacity, underdevelopment and marginalisation. Although crop yields have been increasing due to increases in irrigated area and use of improved seed varieties, they have not been able to meet the food requirements of a growing population, compromising regional food security targets. Most countries in the region depend on international aid to supplement yield deficits. The recurrence of droughts caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue devastating the region, affecting livelihoods, economies and the environment. An example is the 2015/16 ENSO drought that caused the region to call for international aid to feed about 40 million people. In spite of the water scarcity challenges, cereal production continues to increase steadily due to increased investment in irrigated agriculture and improved crop varieties. Given the current and future vulnerability of the agriculture sector in southern Africa, proactive adaptation interventions are important to help farming communities develop resilient systems to adapt to the changes and variability in climate and other stressors.

scholarly journals Advanced Rainfall Trend Analysis of 117 Years over West Coast Plain and Hill Agro-Climatic Region of India

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1225
Author(s):  
Atul Saini ◽  
Netrananda Sahu ◽  
Pankaj Kumar ◽  
Sridhara Nayak ◽  
Weili Duan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Recurrence Interval ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Climatic Region ◽  
Monotonic Trend ◽  
Slope Test ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, the rainfall trend of the West Coast Plain and Hill Agro-Climatic Region is analyzed for 117 years (1901–2017). This region is a globally recognized biodiversity hotspot and known for one of the highest rainfall receiving regions in India. Rainfall grid dataset is used for the analysis of rainfall trends on monthly, seasonal, and decadal time scales. Modified Mann–Kendall’s test, Linear Regression, Innovative Trend Analysis, Sen’s Slope test, Weibull’s Recurrence Interval, Pearson’s Coefficient of Skewness, Consecutive Disparity Index, Kurtosis, and some other important statistical techniques are employed for trend analysis. Results indicate that the rainfall trend is significant in January, July, August, September as well as the Winter season. Among all the significant trends, January and July showed a decreasing rainfall trend. July has the highest contribution (30%) among all the obtained monotonic trend to annual rainfall and coincidentally has the highest trend magnitude. August and September months with a combined contribution of 30% to annual rainfall, show an increasing monotonic trend with high magnitude whereas Winter season shows a monotonic decreasing rainfall trend with comparatively low magnitudes. Decadal analysis along with the study of recurrence interval of excess and deficit years helps to understand the decadal rhythm of trend and the magnitude of extreme monthly and seasonal events. Skewness reveals that rainfall dataset of all the periodic results is right-skewed and the recurrence interval also supports the skewness results. Sharply decreasing rainfall in July and rising rainfall in August and September is predictive of the impact on agriculture, biodiversity and indicates the rainfall regime shift in the region.

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall

2018 ◽  
Vol 437 ◽  
pp. 92-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis D. Synodinos ◽  
Britta Tietjen ◽  
Dirk Lohmann ◽  
Florian Jeltsch
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals First Dendroclimatological Insight into Austrian Pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) Climate-Growth Relationship in Belgrade Area, Serbia

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-134
Author(s):  
Branko Stajić ◽  
Marko Kazimirović ◽  
Vojislav Dukić ◽  
Nenad Radaković
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

In order to assess the impact of climate variations on Austrian pine forest in the Belgrade area, the radial growth of artificially-established Austrian pine trees and its dependence on temperature and precipitation was studied using dendroclimatological methods. The site is classified as Quercetum-frainetto cerris Rudski. Standard and residual chronologies were established and several common statistics were calculated. A dendroclimatic study was carried out using the correlation and response function analysis. The Pearson correlation coefficients between the chronology indices and 13 seasonal (3-month period) precipitation and temperature data were calculated for the period from 1959 to 2014. The applied response function analysis included 24 precipitation and temperature variables from October of the prior year to September of the current year. The results of the correlation analysis pointed out that there was a strong tendency towards a positive response to the summer and late summer/early autumn precipitation and a weak significant negative response to the spring and summer temperatures. Climate-growth relationships were further first studied using the response functions for the significant seasons that were detected from the correlation analysis and then for individual months from previous October to current September. These results also highlighted the findings that higher precipitation in the current summer months has a beneficial effect on the tree-ring width. The conducted correlation between the residual chronology and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index indicated that a high summer value of this drought index had a positive impact on the pine growth and reinforced the previously detected relevance of September as an important month for the Austrian pine growth. These preliminary results point out that some additional climate-Austrian pine growth studies (application of various tree-ring features, growth data with a much longer time span, more sites/stands, etc.) should be performed to obtain new and valuable knowledge important for the sustainable management of Austrian pine forests.

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