scholarly journals Forecasting extreme events: making sense of noisy climate data in support of water resources planning

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-57
Author(s):  
Timothy Cox ◽  
Jenny Bywater ◽  
Mitchell Heineman ◽  
Dan Rodrigo ◽  
Shayne Wood
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Water Resources Planning ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Resources Planning

Abstract Global climate model (GCM) projections are generally considered the best source of information for predicting future climate and hydrologic conditions in the face of a changing climate. Understanding and interpreting GCM projections is therefore critical for water resources planning. Unfortunately, this can be a challenging task as climate model data, particularly precipitation data, are notoriously noisy with large scatter and lacking in apparent patterns or trends. There is also usually large projection variability between models and model scenarios. This paper demonstrates a simple, practical method for synthesizing climate model data into more informative metrics using case studies of Atlanta, Georgia and Austin, Texas. Monthly and daily GCM projections, as well as historical observations, were translated into commonly used summary metrics for extreme event planning: peak 24-hour storm events and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Statistical trend analyses on these two metrics were used as a simple means to better understand the data. As expected, results identified significant, increasing, trends in projected 21st century temperatures for most GCM projections. Less expectedly, significant trends were also identified for projected future monthly and 24-hour maximum precipitation and drought severity. Implications of this work for water resources planning are discussed.

scholarly journals On the Role of NAO-Driven Interannual Variability in Rainfall Seasonality on Water Resources and Hydrologic Design in a Typical Mediterranean Basin

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 485-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Corona ◽  
Nicola Montaldo ◽  
John D. Albertson
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Water Resources Planning ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Hydrologic Design ◽  
Resources Planning

Abstract In the last several decades, extended dry periods have affected the Mediterranean area with dramatic impacts on water resources. Climate models are predicting further warming, with negative effects on water availability. The authors analyze the hydroclimatic tendencies of a typical Mediterranean basin, the Flumendosa basin located in Sardinia, an island in the center of the Mediterranean Sea, where in the last 30 years a sequence of dry periods has seriously impacted the water management system. Interestingly, in the historic record the annual runoff reductions have been more pronounced than the annual precipitation reductions. This paper performs an analysis that links this runoff decrease to changes in the total annual precipitation and its seasonal structure. The seasonality is a key determinant of the surface runoff process, as it reflects the degree to which rainfall is concentrated during the winter. The observed reductions in winter precipitation are shown here to be well correlated (Pearson correlation coefficient of −0.5) with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Considering the predictability of the winter NAO, there is by extension an opportunity to predict future winter precipitation and runoff tendencies. The recent hydroclimatic trends are shown to impact hydrologic design criteria for water resources planning. The authors demonstrate that there is a dangerous increase of the drought severity viewed from the perspective of water resources planning.

scholarly journals Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 3935-3963
Author(s):  
D. J. Befort ◽  
M. Fischer ◽  
G. C. Leckebusch ◽  
U. Ulbrich ◽  
A. Ganske ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Storm Event ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Model Data

Abstract. A new procedure for the identification of storm surge situations for the German Bight is developed and applied to reanalysis and global climate model data. This method is based on the empirical approach for estimating storm surge height using information about wind speed and wind direction. Here, we hypothesize that storm surge events are caused by 10 m winds with high wind speed and north-westerly direction in combination with a large-scale wind storm event affecting the North Sea region. The method is calibrated for ERA-40 data, using the data of the storm surge atlas for Cuxhaven. It is shown that using information of both: wind speed and direction as well as large-scale wind storm events improves the identification of storm surge events. To estimate possible future changes of potential storm surge events, we apply our approach to a small ensemble of three transient climate change simulations which are performed with the ECHAM5/MPIOM model under past and A1B greenhouse gas scenario forcing. We find an increase of the total number of storm surge relevant events by about 12% regarding the ensemble mean for the period from 2001 to 2100 with respect to the period from 1901 to 2000. Yearly numbers of storm surge relevant events show high interannual and decadal variability and only the time series for one of three runs shows a statistical significant increase of the yearly number of storm surge relevant events between 1900 and 2100. However, no changes in the maximum intensity and duration of these events is determined.

Aquatic Habitat Analysis as an Element of Water Resources Planning and Management

1985 ◽  
Vol 17 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 879-890 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin E. Herricks
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Habitat Management ◽  
Aquatic Habitat ◽  
Water Quality Criteria ◽  
Water Resources Planning ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Planning And Management ◽  
Resources Planning

With increased emphasis on environmental quality objectives in water resources planning and management, past practices of simply considering water quality as the only environmental quality objective are inappropriate. Expanded environmental quality objectives include maintenance of high quality aquatic habitat. Water resource systems must provide both physical and chemical conditions appropriate for the propagation and maintenance of healthy diverse aquatic communities. Managing water resources to provide high quality habitat involves planning to meet both water quality and water quantity objectives. Existing technology based water quality controls and stream based water quality criteria can now be supplemented by aquatic habitat management. An approach to aquatic habitat management is illustrated by use of the Incremental Methodology developed by the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The Incremental Methodology uses measures of aquatic habitat to assess instream flows required for by aquatic life. Thus the range of environmental quality objectives in resources planning and management is expanded by application of these methods to include aquatic habitat as well as water quality management. Methods used to determine instream flow needs for rivers in Illinois are reviewed, and the use of this information in developing regulations limiting water extraction for off stream use are described. Aquatic habitat based management is shown to provide workable methods to meet expanded environmental quality objectives in water resources planning and management.

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