Modeling the impacts of climate change and future land use variation on microbial transport

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 449-471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rory Coffey ◽  
Brian Benham ◽  
Karen Kline ◽  
Mary Leigh Wolfe ◽  
Enda Cummins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Watershed Modeling ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Hydrologic Simulation ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
The Impact

The impact of waterborne micro-organisms (potentially pathogenic) on public health may be exacerbated by the combined effects of climate and land use change. We used watershed modeling to assess the potential effects of climate change and future land management scenarios on microbial water quality in the Pigg River watershed, located in southwest Virginia, USA. The hydrologic simulation program in Fortran, climate forecasts from the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment, future projections for land management, and current watershed data were used to simulate a range of potential future scenarios for the period 2040–2069. Results indicate that changes in climate will have the most significant impact on microbial fate and transport, with increased loading driven by trends in seasonal and annual precipitation. High flow and low flow periods represent periods of greatest uncertainty. As climate factors are to an extent uncontrollable, adaptation measures targeting land based source loads will be required to maintain water quality within existing regulatory standards. In addition, new initiatives may need to be identified and incorporated into water policy. This is likely to have repercussions for all watershed inhabitants and stakeholders, but will assist in sustaining water quality standards and protecting human health.

Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

2014 ◽  
Vol 509 ◽  
pp. 354-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugenio Molina-Navarro ◽  
Dennis Trolle ◽  
Silvia Martínez-Pérez ◽  
Antonio Sastre-Merlín ◽  
Erik Jeppesen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Land Use Management ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Water Quality Impact

scholarly journals Analyzing the impacts of climate and land use changes on the water quality in the 3S river basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-131
Author(s):  
Loi Thi Pham ◽  
Khoi Nguyen Dao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
The Impact

Assessing water resources under the influence of environmental change have gained attentions of scientists. The objective of this study was to analyze the impacts of land use change and climate change on water resources in terms quantity and quality in the 3S basin in the period 1981–2008 by using hydrological modeling (SWAT model). The results showed that streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P) tend to increase under individual and combined effects of climate change and land use change. In addition, the impact of land use change on the flow was smaller than the climate change impact. However, water balance components and water quality were equally affected by two factors of climate change and land use change. In general, the results of this study could serve as a reference for water resource management and planning in the river basin.

scholarly journals Identifying the runoff variation in the Naryn River Basin under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Wu ◽  
Y. P. Li ◽  
J. Sun ◽  
P. P. Gao ◽  
G. H. Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A multiple scenario-based ensemble prediction (MSEP) method is developed for exploring the impacts of climate and land-use changes on runoff in the Naryn River Basin. MSEP incorporates multiple global climate models, Cellular Automata–Markov and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a general framework. MSEP can simultaneously analyze the effects of climate and land-use changes on runoff, as well as provide multiple climate and land-use scenarios to reflect the associated uncertainties in runoff simulation and prediction. Totally 96 scenarios are considered to analyze the trend and range of future runoff. Ensemble prediction results reveal that (i) climate change plays a leading role in runoff variation; (ii) compared to the baseline values, peak flow would increase 36.6% and low flow would reduce 36.8% by the 2080s, which would result in flooding and drought risks in the future and (iii) every additional hectare of arable land would increase the water deficit by an average of 10.9 × 103 m3, implying that the arable land should be carefully expanded in the future. Results suggest that, to mitigate the impact of climate change, the rational control of arable land and the active promotion of irrigation efficiency are beneficial for water resources management and ecological environmental recovery.

The impact of land use change, climate change and reservoir construction on ecosystem services in a Mediterranean catchment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joris Eekhout ◽  
Carolina Boix-Fayos ◽  
Pedro Pérez-Cutillas ◽  
Joris de Vente
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Sediment Concentration ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Reservoir Construction ◽  
The Impact

<p>The Mediterranean region has been identified as one of the most affected global hot-spots for climate change. Recent climate change in the Mediterranean can be characterized by faster increasing temperatures than the global mean and significant decreases in annual precipitation. Besides, important land cover changes have occurred, such as reforestation, agricultural intensification, urban expansion and the construction of many reservoirs, mainly with the purpose to store water for irrigation. Here we study the impacts of these changes on several ecosystem services in the Segura River catchment, a typical large Mediterranean catchment where many of the before mentioned changes have occurred in the last half century. We applied a hydrological model, coupled with a soil erosion and sediment transport model, to study the impact of climate and land cover change and reservoir construction on ecosystem services for the period 1971-2010. Eight ecosystem services indicators were defined, which include runoff, plant water stress, hillslope erosion, reservoir sediment yield, sediment concentration, reservoir storage, flood discharge and low flow. To assess larger land use changes, we also applied the model for an extended period (1952-2018) to the Taibilla subcatchment, a typical Mediterranean mountainous subcatchment, which plays an important role in the provision of water within the Segura River catchment. As main results we observed that climate change in the evaluated period is characterized by a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature. Detected land use change over the past 50 years is typical for many Mediterranean catchments. Natural vegetation in the headwaters increased due to agricultural land abandonment. Agriculture expanded in the central part of the catchment, which most likely is related to the construction of reservoirs in the same area. The downstream part of the catchment is characterized by urban expansion. While land use changed in more than 30% of the catchment, most impact on ecosystem services can be attributed to climate change and reservoir construction. All these changes have had positive and negative impacts on ecosystem services. The positive impacts include a decrease in hillslope erosion, sediment yield, sediment concentration and flood discharge (-21%, -18%, -82% and -41%, respectively). The negative impacts include an increase in plant water stress (+5%) and a decrease in reservoir storage (-5%). The decrease in low flow caused by land use change was counteracted by an increase in low flow due to reservoir construction. The results of our study highlight how relatively small climate and land use changes compared to the changes foreseen for the coming decades, have had an important impact on ecosystem services over the past 50 years.</p>

scholarly journals Participatory Approach for More Robust Water Resource Management: Case Study of the Santa Rosa Sub-Watershed of the Philippines

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pankaj Kumar ◽  
Brian Alan Johnson ◽  
Rajarshi Dasgupta ◽  
Ram Avtar ◽  
Shamik Chakraborty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Due to the cumulative effects of rapid urbanization, population growth and climate change, many inland and coastal water bodies around the world are experiencing severe water pollution. To help make land-use and climate change adaptation policies more effective at a local scale, this study used a combination of participatory approaches and computer simulation modeling. This methodology (called the “Participatory Watershed Land-use Management” (PWLM) approach) consist of four major steps: (a) Scenario analysis, (b) impact assessment, (c) developing adaptation and mitigation measures and its integration in local government policies, and (d) improvement of land use plan. As a test case, we conducted PWLM in the Santa Rosa Sub-watershed of the Philippines, a rapidly urbanizing area outside Metro Manila. The scenario analysis step involved a participatory land-use mapping activity (to understand future likely land-use changes), as well as GCM precipitation and temperature data downscaling (to understand the local climate scenarios). For impact assessment, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool was used to simulate future river water quality (BOD and E. coli) under a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario and several alternative future scenarios considering different drivers and pressures (to 2030). Water samples from the Santa Rosa River in 2015 showed that BOD values ranged from 13 to 52 mg/L; indicating that the river is already moderately to extremely polluted compared to desirable water quality (class B). In the future scenarios, we found that water quality will deteriorate further by 2030 under all scenarios. Population growth was found to have the highest impact on future water quality deterioration, while climate change had the lowest (although not negligible). After the impact assessment, different mitigation measures were suggested in a stakeholder consultation workshop, and of them (enhanced capacity of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), and increased sewerage connection rate) were adopted to generate a final scenario including countermeasures. The main benefit of the PWLM approach are its high level of stakeholder involvement (through co-generation of the research) and use of free (for developing countries) software and models, both of which contribute to an enhanced science-policy interface.

Climate change and effects on water quality: a first impression

2005 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 53-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.A.J. Senhorst ◽  
J.J.G. Zwolsman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Surface Waters ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
First Impression ◽  
Floods And Droughts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Case Basis

A number of possible relationships between climate change and water quality of Dutch surface waters have been investigated and an indicative quantification of the impact of climate change on water quality has been established. The analysis focused on water quality during periods of low flow and extreme heat, which are assumed to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change. The results indicate that the impact of climate change on water quality cannot be generalised and should be assessed on a case by case basis. However, the impact on extreme situations (floods and droughts) seems to be largest, whilst water quality under average discharge conditions appears to be relatively unchanged.

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER QUALITY IN THE CORDILLERA BLANCA, PERU

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen Longo ◽  
◽  
Elizabeth Balgord ◽  
Timothy F. Diedesch ◽  
John All
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Cordillera Blanca ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

Feasibility of The Olympic Marathon Under Climatic And Socioeconomic Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takahiro Oyama ◽  
Jun'ya Takakura ◽  
Minoru Fujii ◽  
Kenichi Nakajima ◽  
Yasuaki Hijioka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Olympic Games ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Socioeconomic Conditions ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Marathon Runners ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
The Impact

Abstract There are concerns about the impact of climate change on Olympic Games, especially endurance events, such as marathons. In recent competitions, many marathon runners dropped out of their races due to extreme heat, and it is expected that more areas will be unable to host the Olympic Games due to climate change. Here, we show the feasibility of the Olympic marathon considering the variations in climate factors, socioeconomic conditions, and adaptation measures. The number of current possible host cities will decline by up to 24% worldwide by the late 21st century. Dozens of emerging cities, especially in Asia, will not be capable of hosting the marathon under the highest emission scenario. Moving the marathon from August to October and holding the games in multiple cities in the country are effective measures, and they should be considered if we are to maintain the regional diversity of the games.

scholarly journals A framework for evaluating regional hydrologic sensitivity to climate change using archetypal watershed modeling

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 3077-3094 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. R. Lopez ◽  
T. S. Hogue ◽  
E. D. Stein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Watershed Modeling ◽  
Suspended Sediments ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Urban Systems ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Hydrologic Simulation ◽  
Change Temperature ◽  
Land Covers

Abstract. The current study focuses on the development of a regional framework to evaluate hydrologic and sediment sensitivity, at various stages of urban development, due to predicted future climate variability. We develop archetypal watersheds, which are regional representations of observed physiographic features (i.e., geomorphology, land cover patterns, etc.) with a synthetic basin size and reach network. Each of the three regional archetypes (urban, vegetated and mixed urban/vegetated land covers) simulates satisfactory regional hydrologic and sediment behavior compared to historical observations prior to a climate sensitivity analysis. Climate scenarios considered a range of increasing temperatures, as estimated by the IPCC, and precipitation variability based on historical observations and expectations. Archetypal watersheds are modeled using the Environmental Protection Agency's Hydrologic Simulation Program–Fortran model (EPA HSPF) and relative changes to streamflow and sediment flux are evaluated. Results indicate that the variability and extent of vegetation play a key role in watershed sensitivity to predicted climate change. Temperature increase alone causes a decrease in annual flow and an increase in sediment flux within the vegetated archetypal watershed only, and these effects are partially mitigated by the presence of impervious surfaces within the urban and mixed archetypal watersheds. Depending on the extent of precipitation variability, urban and moderately urban systems can expect the largest alteration in flow regimes where high-flow events increase in frequency and magnitude. As a result, enhanced wash-off of suspended sediments from available pervious surfaces is expected.

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