Using climate scenarios to evaluate future impacts on the groundwater resources and agricultural economy of the Texas High Plains

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 561-577 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachna Tewari ◽  
Jeff Johnson ◽  
Steven Mauget ◽  
Gary Leiker ◽  
Katharine Hayhoe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Agricultural Economy ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Texas High Plains

This study evaluated the impacts of future climate scenarios on the groundwater resources and agricultural economy of the Texas High Plains, using Hale county as a case study. Climate change impacts were incorporated into regional economic models using weather projections to develop crop response functions from crop models. These projections are based on quantitative projections of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature trends driven by simulations from the latest IPCC AR4 climate models (Community Climate System Model (CCSM), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), UK Met Office Hadley Model (HadCM3), and Parallel Climate Model (PCM)) under two specific emissions scenarios, A1B (mid-range) and A1FI (higher). Results indicated that for both the emission scenarios, saturated thickness, water use per cropland acre, and irrigated acreage declined under climatic predictions by all four models. At the end of the 90 year horizon, the A1B scenario resulted in a decline in average net income per acre as predicted by the CCSM and HadCM3 models, while the GFDL and PCM models predicted an increase in average net income per acre. Under the A1FI scenario, the CCSM, GFDL, and PCM model projections led to increased average net income per acre, while climate projections under the HadCM3 model indicated a decline in average net income per acre at the end of the 90 year horizon.

Lysimetric Evaluation of the APEX Model to Simulate Daily ET for Irrigated Crops in the Texas High Plains

2018 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Saleh ◽  
Rewati Niraula ◽  
Gary W. Marek ◽  
Prasanna H. Gowda ◽  
David K. Brauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Texas High Plains ◽  
Apex Model

Abstract. The NTT (Nutrient Tracking Tool) was designed to provide an opportunity for all users, including producers, to run complex simulation models, such as APEX (Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender), with the associated required databases. The APEX model currently nested within NTT provides estimates of the changes in nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and sediment losses that are associated with management practices specified by the user. Five methods (Penman-Monteith, Penman, Priestley-Taylor, Hargreaves-Samani, and Baier-Robertson) for determining potential evapotranspiration (PET) are available as inputs for estimating actual ET. This study was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the ET values obtained from the five PET equations currently available in APEX using both onsite measured climate data and data from the NTT standard databases. The mean daily, monthly, and annual ET values predicted by each of the equations in APEX for a lysimeter field at the USDA-ARS Conservation and Production Research Laboratory at Bushland, Texas, was compared to values measured for the 2001-2010 period. APEX generally underestimated ET with all PET methods (mostly during growing seasons) at both the daily and monthly levels but overpredicted for years when cotton was grown as the major cash crop due to overprediction of leaf area index during the senescing stage for cotton. The underprediction of ET in growing seasons was possibly from underprediction of rainfall due to estimation of rainfall for missing data. Overall, APEX was able to adequately (R2 = 0.82 and NSE = 0.80) predict mean monthly ET for major crops grown in the semi-arid Texas High Plains region. These results should reinforce confidence in APEX’s ability to simulate ET accurately for fully irrigated farms. ET predictions with the Hargreaves-Samani and Priestley-Taylor methods, which require limited data compared to the Penman and Penman-Monteith methods, were similar (p > 0.05, one-way ANOVA), with mean errors within 8.7% for measured weather data and 12.6% for NTT-generated weather data for both methods. This is encouraging because of the limited availability of measured climate data for the majority of locations in the world, including the U.S. Keywords: APEX, Evapotranspiration (ET), Irrigation, Lysimeters, NTT, Semiarid regions.

scholarly journals Agro-Climate Projections for a Warming Alaska

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (18) ◽  
pp. 1-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rick Lader ◽  
John E. Walsh ◽  
Uma S. Bhatt ◽  
Peter A. Bieniek
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Planting Dates ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Growing Season Length ◽  
Model Version ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate warming is expected to disproportionately affect crop yields in the southern United States due to excessive heat stress, while presenting new farming opportunities through a longer growing season farther north. Few studies have investigated the impact of this warming on agro-climate indices that link meteorological data with important field dates in northern regions. This study employs regional dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to assess changes in growing season length (GSL), spring planting dates, and occurrences of plant heat stress (PHS) for five regions in Alaska. Differences between future representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5; 2011–40, 2041–70, 2071–2100) and historical (1981–2010) periods are obtained using boundary forcing from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 3, and the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 4. The model output is bias corrected using ERA-Interim. Median GSL shows increases of 48–87 days by 2071–2100, with the largest changes in northern Alaska. Similarly, by 2071–2100, planting dates advance 2–4 weeks, and PHS days increase from near 0 to 5–10 instances per summer in the hottest areas. The largest GSL changes occur in the mid- (2041–70) and late century (2071–2100), when a warming signal emerges from the historical interannual variability. These periods coincide with the greatest divergence of the RCPs, suggesting that near-term decision-making may affect substantial future changes. Early-century (2011–40) projections show median GSL increases of 8–27 days, which is close to the historical standard deviation of GSL. Thus, internal variability will remain an important source of uncertainty into the midcentury, despite a trend for longer growing seasons.

Regional Climate Scenarios for use in Nordic Water Resources Studies

2003 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 399-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rummukainen ◽  
J. Räisänen ◽  
D. Bjørge ◽  
J.H. Christensen ◽  
O.B. Christensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Soil Frost ◽  
Nordic Region ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

According to global climate projections, a substantial global climate change will occur during the next decades, under the assumption of continuous anthropogenic climate forcing. Global models, although fundamental in simulating the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing are typically geographically too coarse to well represent many regional or local features. In the Nordic region, climate studies are conducted in each of the Nordic countries to prepare regional climate projections with more detail than in global ones. Results so far indicate larger temperature changes in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models do not yet fully incorporate hydrology. Water resources studies are carried out off-line using hydrological models. This requires archived meteorological output from climate models. This paper discusses Nordic regional climate scenarios for use in regional water resources studies. Potential end-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding.

Irrigation Management Effects on Crop Water Productivity for Maize Production in the Texas High Plains

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-43
Author(s):  
Gary W. Marek ◽  
Thomas H. Marek ◽  
Steven R. Evett ◽  
Yong Chen ◽  
Kevin R. Heflin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Productivity ◽  
Irrigation Management ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Crop Water Productivity ◽  
Texas High Plains ◽  
Management Effects

Forage Potential of Pearl Millet and Forage Sorghum Alternatives to Corn under the Water-Limiting Conditions of the Texas High Plains: A Review

cftm ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 190058 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bishwoyog Bhattarai ◽  
Sukhbir Singh ◽  
Charles P. West ◽  
Rupinder Saini
Keyword(s):  
Pearl Millet ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Forage Sorghum ◽  
Texas High Plains

Modeling climate change impacts on blue, green, and grey water footprints and crop yields in the Texas High Plains, USA

2021 ◽  
Vol 310 ◽  
pp. 108649
Author(s):  
Yong Chen ◽  
Gary W. Marek ◽  
Thomas H. Marek ◽  
Dana O. Porter ◽  
David K. Brauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Grey Water ◽  
Texas High Plains
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