Modeling the impacts of increase in temperature on irrigation water requirements in Palakkad district: a case study in humid tropical Kerala

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 472-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. Surendran ◽  
C. M. Sushanth ◽  
George Mammen ◽  
E. J. Joseph
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Zones ◽  
Irrigation Water Demand

Rise in temperature is one of the predicted impacts of climate change with significant implications on water resources management. An attempt has been made to calculate the water requirement of crops in different agro-ecological zones of Palakkad district in humid tropical Kerala using the CROPWAT 8.0 model. Sensitivity analysis was done for a simulated rise in temperature from 0.5 to 3.0 °C keeping other parameters the same. The analysis showed that the total crop water requirement of all the major crops, like coconut, paddy and banana, increased with rising temperature thereby increasing the simulated irrigation water demand. The gross water demand inclusive of irrigation, domestic and industries will be 1,496 Mm3. The simulated gross water demand for an increase in temperature of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 °C will be 1,523, 1,791, 1,822 and 1,853 Mm3, respectively. The maximum utilizable water resource available in the district is only 1,579 Mm3 and better water management, focusing particularly on improving the irrigation efficiency, has to be adopted to cater for the demands of the user sectors under changing climate scenario. A wide spectrum of climate change scenarios is also discussed in the paper along with guidelines for the future management of water resources.

scholarly journals Predicting the Water Requirement for Rice Production as Affected by Projected Climate Change in Bihar, India

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3312
Author(s):  
Ranjeet K. Jha ◽  
Prasanta K. Kalita ◽  
Richard A. Cooke ◽  
Praveen Kumar ◽  
Paul C. Davidson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Climate change is a well-known phenomenon all over the globe. The influence of projected climate change on agricultural production, either positive or negative, can be assessed for various locations. The present study was conducted to investigate the impact of projected climate change on rice’s production, water demand and phenology for the state of Bihar, India. Furthermore, this study assessed the irrigation water requirement to increase the rice production by 60%, for the existing current climate scenario and all the four IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) by the 2050s (2050–2059). Various management practices were used as adaptation methods to analyze the requirement of irrigation water for a 60% increase in rice production. The climate data obtained from the four General Circulation Models (GCMs) (bcc_csm1.1, csiro_mk3_6_0, ipsl_cm5a_mr and miroc_miroc5) were used in the crop growth model, with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) used to simulate the rice yield, phenological days and water demand under all four climate change scenarios. The results obtained from the CERES-Rice model in the DSSAT, corresponding to all four GCMs, were ensembled together to obtain the overall change in yield, phenology and water demand for 10 years of interval from 2020 to 2059. We investigated several strategies: increasing the rice’s yield by 60% with current agronomic practice; increasing the yield by 60% with conservation agricultural practice; and increasing the rice yield by 30% with current agronomic practice as well as with conservation agricultural practices (assuming that the other 30% increase in yield would be achieved by reducing post-harvest losses by 30%). The average increase in precipitation between 2020 and 2059 was observed to be 5.23%, 13.96%, 9.30% and 9.29%, respectively, for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. The decrease in yield during the 2050s, from the baseline period (1980–2004), was observed to be 2.94%, 3.87%, 4.02% and 5.84% for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The irrigation requirement was predicted to increase by a range of 39% to 45% for a 60% increase in yield using the current agronomic practice in current climate scenario and by 2050s with all the four climate change scenarios from the baseline period (1980–2004). We found that if we combine both conservation agriculture and removal of 30% of the post-harvest losses, the irrigation requirement would be reduced by 26% (45 to 19%), 20% (44 to 24%), 21% (43 to 22%), 22% (39 to 17%) and 20% (41 to 21%) with current climate scenario, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 conditions, respectively. This combination of conservation practices suggests that the irrigation water requirement can be reduced by a large percentage, even if we produce 60% more food under the projected climate change conditions.

scholarly journals Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 °C warmer climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (47) ◽  
pp. 29526-29534
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Rosa ◽  
Davide Danilo Chiarelli ◽  
Matteo Sangiorgio ◽  
Areidy Aracely Beltran-Peña ◽  
Maria Cristina Rulli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Irrigation Water Demand ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Sustainable Irrigation

Climate change is expected to affect crop production worldwide, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions. It is still unknown how irrigation water needs will change in a warmer planet and where freshwater will be locally available to expand irrigation without depleting freshwater resources. Here, we identify the rain-fed cropping systems that hold the greatest potential for investment in irrigation expansion because water will likely be available to suffice irrigation water demand. Using projections of renewable water availability and irrigation water demand under warming scenarios, we identify target regions where irrigation expansion may sustain crop production under climate change. Our results also show that global rain-fed croplands hold significant potential for sustainable irrigation expansion and that different irrigation strategies have different irrigation expansion potentials. Under a 3 °C warming, we find that a soft-path irrigation expansion with small monthly water storage and deficit irrigation has the potential to expand irrigated land by 70 million hectares and feed 300 million more people globally. We also find that a hard-path irrigation expansion with large annual water storage can sustainably expand irrigation up to 350 million hectares, while producing food for 1.4 billion more people globally. By identifying where irrigation can be expanded under a warmer climate, this work may serve as a starting point for investigating socioeconomic factors of irrigation expansion and may guide future research and resources toward those agricultural communities and water management institutions that will most need to adapt to climate change.

Assessment of Rice Yield and Irrigation Water Demand Change in the Korean Peninsula based on RCP Climate Change Scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujong Lee ◽  
Halim Lee ◽  
Hyun-Woo Jo ◽  
Youngjin Ko ◽  
Chul-Hee Lim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Epic Model ◽  
Irrigation Water Demand

<p>In 2019, The Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO) announced that North Korea was a food shortage country and which is closely related to the agricultural drought frequency. These agricultural drought frequencies derived from global climate change are increasing and in terms of climate change, agricultural drought is not just a national problem, but a global scale issue. To respond to agricultural drought-related with food shortage, various studies and projects are conducted based on the remote sensing data and modeling such as hydrological model, crop model, but access to public data in North Korea is limited, and also objectivity is difficult to be guaranteed. In this study, the estimation of rice yield and irrigation water demand based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate change scenario was conducted using Environmental Policy Integrated Climate(EPIC) model which calculates various variables related to agriculture by using climatic data, Soil data and topographic data. For validating the parameter of the model, the study area was set to the Korean Peninsula and the parameter was set stepwise compared results of the model with South Korea national statistics. The results of rice yield and irrigation water demand in the Korean Peninsula was validated by using statistics of international organizations. The assessment of Rice Yield and Irrigation Water Demand Change based on the EPIC model is considered a method for complementing the field test and statistical limitations in North Korea. This study can be used as basic data for agricultural drought in North Korea and Based on the model results, it is necessary to concern food security.</p>

scholarly journals Projection of irrigation water demand based on the simulation of synthetic crop coefficients and climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 637-651
Author(s):  
Michel Le Page ◽  
Younes Fakir ◽  
Lionel Jarlan ◽  
Aaron Boone ◽  
Brahim Berjamy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Crop Coefficients ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the context of major changes (climate, demography, economy, etc.), the southern Mediterranean area faces serious challenges with intrinsically low, irregular, and continuously decreasing water resources. In some regions, the proper growth both in terms of cropping density and surface area of irrigated areas is so significant that it needs to be included in future scenarios. A method for estimating the future evolution of irrigation water requirements is proposed and tested in the Tensift watershed, Morocco. Monthly synthetic crop coefficients (Kc) of the different irrigated areas were obtained from a time series of remote sensing observations. An empirical model using the synthetic Kc and rainfall was developed and fitted to the actual data for each of the different irrigated areas within the study area. The model consists of a system of equations that takes into account the monthly trend of Kc, the impact of yearly rainfall, and the saturation of Kc due to the presence of tree crops. The impact of precipitation change is included in the Kc estimate and the water budget. The anthropogenic impact is included in the equations for Kc. The impact of temperature change is only included in the reference evapotranspiration, with no impact on the Kc cycle. The model appears to be reliable with an average r2 of 0.69 for the observation period (2000–2016). However, different subsampling tests of the number of calibration years showed that the performance is degraded when the size of the training dataset is reduced. When subsampling the training dataset to one-third of the 16 available years, r2 was reduced to 0.45. This score has been interpreted as the level of reliability that could be expected for two time periods after the full training years (thus near to 2050). The model has been used to reinterpret a local water management plan and to incorporate two downscaled climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The examination of irrigation water requirements until 2050 revealed that the difference between the two climate scenarios was very small (< 2 %), while the two agricultural scenarios were strongly contrasted both spatially and in terms of their impact on water resources. The approach is generic and can be refined by incorporating irrigation efficiencies.

scholarly journals The Global Trend of the Net Irrigation Water Requirement of Maize from 1960 to 2050

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdoulaye Oumarou Abdoulaye ◽  
Haishen Lu ◽  
Yonghua Zhu ◽  
Yousef Alhaj Hamoud ◽  
Mohamed Sheteiwy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Irrigation Water Requirement ◽  
Sub Saharan

Irrigated production around the world has significantly increased over the last decade. However, climate change is a new threat that could seriously aggravate the irrigation water supplies and request. In this study, the data is derived from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). For the climate change scenarios, five Global Climate Models (GCMs) have been used. By using the CROPWAT approach of Smith, the net irrigation water requirement (IRnet) was calculated. For the estimation of the potential evapotranspiration (Epot), the method in Raziei and Pereira was used. According to representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5, these increases vary between 0.74% (North America) and 20.92% (North America) while the RCP 8.5 predict increases of 4.06% (sub-Saharan Africa) to more than 68% (North America). The results also show that the region of Latin America is the region with the large amount of IRnet with coprime value between 1.39 km3/yr (GFDL 4.5) and 1.48 km3/yr (CSIRO 4.5) while sub-Saharan Africa has the smallest IRnet amount between 0.13 km3/yr (GFDL 8.5) and 0.14 km3/yr (ECHAM 8.5). However, the most affected countries by this impact are those in sub-Saharan Africa. This study will probably help decision-makers to make corrections in making their decision.

Building quantitative scenarios of irrigation under climatic and anthropogenic changes in the mediterranean area: application to Morocco

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fakir Younes ◽  
Le Page Michel ◽  
Jarlan Lionel ◽  
Boone Aaron ◽  
Berjamy Brahim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Crop Coefficient ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Single Equation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Irrigation Water Demand ◽  
Southern Mediterranean

&lt;p&gt;In a context of major changes (climate, demography, economy, etc.), the Southern Mediterranean area faces serious challenges with intrinsically low, irregular and continuously decreasing water resources. A method for translating a narrative scenario of irrigation water requirements into a quantitative scenario is presented. At first, we propose to describe the Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) of any area by a single equation. IWR depends on climate (ET0, Rainfall), crop development estimated from remote sensing time series (crop coefficient/NDVI relationships), and four efficiencies parameters. In a second part, a reference model of the crop coefficient monthly cycle ( ) is proposed by empirically relating to rainfall and NDVI. Three variations of the model are compared in order to make a projection until 2050 based on downscaled climate change scenarios. The reliability of the model depends on the representativeness of the calibration period: It is considered to be high at the beginning of the simulation (RMSE below 0.1), but it deteriorates as the calibrating period gets shorter compared to the objective period: r&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;= 0.5, RMSE = [0.1-0.14], stderr = [0.02-0.03] by 2050. An alternative scenario is built upon the reference by interpreting the narrative as bending points. Finally, the examination of irrigation water demand until 2050 suggests that the difference between the two climate scenarios is very small (&lt;2%), while the two proposed agricultural scenarios are strongly contrasted both spatially and in their impact on water resources.&lt;/p&gt;

Influence mechanism of climate change on paddy farming practices and irrigation water demand

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 359-371
Author(s):  
Gun-Ho Cho ◽  
Mirza Junaid Ahmad ◽  
Seulgi Lee ◽  
Kyung-Sook Choi ◽  
Won-Ho Nam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Farming Practices ◽  
Irrigation Water Demand ◽  
Influence Mechanism
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