Assessing potential climate change impacts on the seasonality of runoff in an Alpine watershed

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus Schneeberger ◽  
Christian Dobler ◽  
Matthias Huttenlau ◽  
Johann Stötter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Alpine Watershed ◽  
Flood Peaks

The aim of this study is to investigate potential impacts of climate change on the seasonality of runoff in a mountainous watershed, located in the Austrian Alps. In order to consider the full range of possible climate variation, hypothetical climate change scenarios were used to force a hydrological model to simulate runoff time series for potential future climate conditions. The variation of runoff seasonality is illustrated with a three-dimensional representation of daily discharge data, directional statistics of annual flood peaks and the analysis of seasonal occurrence of runoff peaks. The results show that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns could have considerable effects on seasonal runoff variability in the investigated watershed. Generally, a possible increase in temperature may cause an increase in seasonal variability of runoff. Further, annual flood peaks are projected to occur throughout the entire year in the investigated Alpine watershed, whereas moderate high flows may increase in winter (December–February).

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on nutrient loads in the Yorkshire Ouse catchment (UK)

2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Bouraoui ◽  
L. Galbiati ◽  
G. Bidoglio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
Nitrogen And Phosphorus ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study assessed the impact of potential climate change on the nutrient loads to surface and sub-surface waters from agricultural areas and was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The study focused on a 3500 km2 catchment located in northern England, the Yorkshire Ouse. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using sets of five years' measurements of nitrate and ortho-phosphorus concentrations and water flow. To increase the reliability of the hydrological model predictions, an uncertainty analysis was conducted by perturbing input parameters using a Monte-Carlo technique. The SWAT model was then run using a baseline scenario corresponding to an actual measured time series of daily temperature and precipitation, and six climate change scenarios. Because of the increase in temperature, all climate scenarios introduced an increase of actual evapotranspiration. Faster crop growth and an increased nutrient uptake resulted, as did an increase of annual losses of total nitrogen and phosphorus, however, with strong seasonal differences. Keywords: SWAT model, climate change, nutrient loads

scholarly journals An Integrated Extreme Rainfall Modeling Tool (SDExtreme) for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myeong-Ho Yeo ◽  
Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen ◽  
Yong Sang Kim ◽  
Theodore A. Kpodonu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Modeling Software ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency

Abstract The estimation of the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) relations is often necessary for the planning and design of various hydraulic structures and design storms. It has been an increasingly greater challenge due to climate change condition. This paper therefore proposes an integrated extreme rainfall modeling software package (SDExtreme) for constructing the IDF relations at a local site in the context of climate change. The proposed tool is based on a temporal downscaling method to describe the relationships between daily and sub-daily extreme precipitation using the scale-invariance General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. In addition, SDExtreme provides a modified bootstrap technique to determine confidence intervals (CIs) of the estimated IDF curves for the current and the future climate conditions. The feasibility and accuracy of SDExtreme were assessed using rainfall data available from the selected rain gauge stations in Quebec and Ontario provinces (Canada) and climate simulations under three different climate change scenarios provided by the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4).

scholarly journals Climate Change Observations and Trends Overview: Focus on Morocco With a Case-Study of A Future Reservoir’s Response to Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 150 ◽  
pp. 01010
Author(s):  
Wafae El Harraki ◽  
Driss Ouazar ◽  
Ahmed Bouziane ◽  
Driss Hasnaoui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Historical Series ◽  
Total Average

Climate change impacts are being unequivocal on societies, natural resources and economic development. Observations and trends of climate features have been tackled by many scientists through analysis of historical series of temperature and precipitation and projections of theses parameters and of their extremes under different scenarios. This paper gives an overview of climate change observations and trends based on some latest works with focus on impacts on water resources and specifically in Morocco belonging to a vulnerable continent to climate change and to the Mediterranean region qualified as a “hot spot”. A case-study from Sebou Basin was conducted through an assessment of water supply from a future reservoir for different sizes under climate change scenarios for the mid and end of the 21st century. Simulations of the future multi-objective dam showed a decrease of total average supply between 9% to 12% for the mid-term scenario and 20% to 27% for the long-term scenario. The biggest size was found to have better reliability permitting approaching the fulfillment of all water needs for the log-term. Some adaptation options are recommended in occurrence water demand management, reservoir operation optimization and raising users „awareness and participation in climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals The Awareness of and Input into Cultural Heritage Preservation by Urban Planners and Other Municipal Actors in Light of Climate Change

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 726
Author(s):  
Paul Carroll ◽  
Eeva Aarrevaara
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Town Planning ◽  
Urban Setting ◽  
Heritage Preservation ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Cultural Heritage Preservation

Future climate conditions need to be considered in planning for urban areas. As well as considering how new structures would best endure in the future, it is important to take into account factors that contribute to the degradation of cultural heritage buildings in the urban setting. Climate change can cause an increase in structural degradation. In this paper, a review of both what these factors are and how they are addressed by urban planners is presented. A series of inquiries into the topic was carried out on town planning personnel and those involved in cultural heritage preservation in several towns and cities in Finland and in a small number of other European countries. The target group members were asked about observed climate change impacts on cultural heritage, about present steps being taken to protect urban cultural heritage, and also their views were obtained on how climate change impacts will be emphasised in the future in this regard. The results of the inquiry demonstrate that climate change is still considered only in a limited way in urban planning, and more interaction between different bodies, both planning and heritage authorities, as well as current research on climate change impacts, is needed in the field.

Regional biogeographical model of vegetation zones in doctoral programme Regional Biography in Olomouc (Case study for Norway spruce)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivo Machar ◽  
Marián Halás ◽  
Zdeněk Opršal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Ecological Data ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Vegetation Zones ◽  
Landscape Research

Regional climate changes impacts induce vegetation zones shift to higher altitudes in temperate landscape. This paper deals with applying of regional biogeography model of climate conditions for vegetation zones in Czechia to doctoral programme Regional Geography in Palacky University Olomouc. The model is based on general knowledge of landscape vegetation zonation. Climate data for model come from predicted validated climate database under RCP8.5 scenario since 2100. Ecological data are included in the Biogeography Register database (geobiocoenological data related to landscape for cadastral areas of the Czech Republic). Mathematical principles of modelling are based on set of software solutions with GIS. Students use the model in the frame of the course “Special Approaches to Landscape Research” not only for regional scenarios climate change impacts in landscape scale, but also for assessment of climate conditions for growing capability of agricultural crops or forest trees under climate change on regional level.

scholarly journals Development of downscaled Climate Change Scenarios for Central America. Lessons learned and next steps

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Tamayo ◽  
Ernesto Rodriguez-Camino ◽  
Sara Covaleda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central America ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Hydrological Services ◽  
Different Sources

<p>The intersectoral workshop held in December 2016 among the Ibero-American networks on water (CODIA), climate change (RIOCC) and meteorology (CIMHET) identified the need to dispose of downscaled climate change scenarios for Central America. Such scenarios would be developed by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in the region, based on a common methodology, allowing the assessment of climate change impacts on water resources and extreme hydro-meteorological events.</p><p>One final outcome of the project has been a freely accessible web viewer, installed on the Centro Clima webpage (https://centroclima.org/escenarios-cambio-climatico/), managed by CRRH-SICA, where all information generated during the project is available for consultation and data downloading by the different sectors of users.</p><p>A key element in this project has been to integrate many downscaled projections based on different methods (dynamical and statistical), totalizing 45 different projections, and aiming at estimating the uncertainty coming from different sources in the best possible way.</p><p>Another essential element has been the strong involvement of the different user sectors through national workshops, first, at the beginning of the project for the identification and definition of viewer features the project, and then for the presentation of results and planning of its use by prioritized sectors.</p><p>In a second phase of the project, a regional working group made up of experts from the NMHSs will be in charge of viewer maintenance and upgrade, including new sectoral parameters, developed in collaboration with interested users, and computation and addition of new downscaled projections from CMIP 6 in collaboration with AEMET.</p><p>Finally, following the request of CIMHET, the possibility of replicating this project for other areas of Ibero-America is being evaluated.</p>

scholarly journals Climate Change Influences Basidiome Emergence of Leaf-Cutting Ant Cultivars

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 912
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Bizarria ◽  
Pepijn W. Kooij ◽  
Andre Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nest Architecture ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Symbiotic Mutualism ◽  
Leaf Cutting

Maintaining symbiosis homeostasis is essential for mutualistic partners. Leaf-cutting ants evolved a long-term symbiotic mutualism with fungal cultivars for nourishment while using vertical asexual transmission across generations. Despite the ants’ efforts to suppress fungal sexual reproduction, scattered occurrences of cultivar basidiomes have been reported. Here, we review the literature for basidiome occurrences and associated climate data. We hypothesized that more basidiome events could be expected in scenarios with an increase in temperature and precipitation. Our field observations and climate data analyses indeed suggest that Acromyrmex coronatus colonies are prone to basidiome occurrences in warmer and wetter seasons. Even though our study partly depended on historical records, occurrences have increased, correlating with climate change. A nest architecture with low (or even the lack of) insulation might be the cause of this phenomenon. The nature of basidiome occurrences in the A. coronatus–fungus mutualism can be useful to elucidate how resilient mutualistic symbioses are in light of climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE UPPER BEAS BASIN OF THE WESTERN INDIAN HIMALAYA

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W6 ◽  
pp. 51-57
Author(s):  
S. Rani ◽  
S. Sreekesh ◽  
P. Krishnan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Indian Agricultural Research Institute ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Indian Himalaya ◽  
Near Future

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Appraisal of potential evapotranspiration (PET) is needed for estimating the agricultural water requirement and understanding hydrological processes in an arena. Therefore, aim of the paper was to estimate the PET in the upper Beas basin, situated in the Western Indian Himalaya, under future climate change scenarios (by mid-21st century). Climate data (1969&amp;ndash;2010) of Manali, Bhuntar and Katrain were obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI). Landsat data were used for mapping land use/land cover (LULC) conditions of the basin through decision tree technique. Elevation detail of the catchment area is derived from the Cartosat-1 digital elevation model (DEM). Simulations of PET were done by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The model was calibrated using the average monthly discharge data from Thalout station. The study found fluctuations in PET under different climate change scenarios. It is likely to increase in near future owing to the rise in temperature. The higher water demand can be met from the excess snowmelt water reaching the lower basin area during the cropping seasons. This study will be helpful to understand water availability conditions in the upper Beas basin in the near future.</p>

scholarly journals Adaptación de la agricultura a escenarios de cambio global. Aplicación de métodos participativos en la cuenca del río Júcar (España)

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mar Ortega-Reig ◽  
Marta García-Mollá ◽  
Carles Sanchis-Ibor ◽  
Manuel Pulido-Velázquez ◽  
Corentin Girard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
La Mancha ◽  
Local Impacts ◽  
Del Rio ◽  
Adaptation Processes

<p>This paper develops a participatory methodology to integrate farmer’s vision in the design of an adaptation strategy to global change in the Jucar River basin. It aims at answering three questions: How farmers perceive climate change impacts; which adaptation measures they consider; and how they assess these measures. Participatory workshops with different actors were held in two areas (La Ribera and La Mancha Oriental). This methodology has allowed identifying the local impacts and consequences of global change, and the difficulties of the adaptation processes to climate change scenarios.</p>

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