Assessment of climate change impacts in a semi-arid watershed in Iran using regional climate models

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid R. Solaymani ◽  
A. K. Gosain
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Semi Arid

This paper aims to summarize in detail the results of the climate models under various scenarios by temporal and spatial analysis in the semi-arid Karkheh Basin (KB) in Iran, which is likely to experience water shortages. The PRECIS and REMO models, under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios, have been chosen as regional climate models (RCMs). These regional climate models indicate an overall warming in future in KB under various scenarios. The increase in temperature in the dry months (June, July and August) is greater than the increase in the wet months (January, February, March and April). In order to perform climate change impact assessment on water resources, the Arc-SWAT 9.3 model was used in the study area. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model results have been obtained using present and future climate data. There is an overall reduction in the water yield (WYLD) over the whole of the KB. The deficit of WYLD is considerable over the months of April to September throughout KB due to the increase in average temperature and decrease in precipitation under various emission scenarios. Statistical properties in box-and-whisker plots have been used to gain further understanding relevant to uncertainty analysis in climate change impacts. Evaluation of uncertainty has shown the highest uncertain condition under B2.

Future humidity extremes in an urban-rural context - using regional climate model projections down to convection permitting scales for Berlin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaby S. Langendijk ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Urban Rural

<p>Urban areas are prone to climate change impacts. A transition towards sustainable and climate-resilient urban areas is relying heavily on useful, evidence-based climate information on urban scales. However, current climate data and information produced by urban or climate models are either not scale compliant for cities, or do not cover essential parameters and/or urban-rural interactions under climate change conditions. Furthermore, although e.g. the urban heat island may be better understood, other phenomena, such as moisture change, are little researched. Our research shows the potential of regional climate models, within the EURO-CORDEX framework, to provide climate projections and information on urban scales for 11km and 3km grid size. The city of Berlin is taken as a case-study. The results on the 11km spatial scale show that the regional climate models simulate a distinct difference between Berlin and its surroundings for temperature and humidity related variables. There is an increase in urban dry island conditions in Berlin towards the end of the 21st century. To gain a more detailed understanding of climate change impacts, extreme weather conditions were investigated under a 2°C global warming and further downscaled to the 3km scale. This enables the exploration of differences of the meteorological processes between the 11km and 3km scales, and the implications for urban areas and its surroundings. The overall study shows the potential of regional climate models to provide climate change information on urban scales.</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of potential hydrological climate change impacts in Kastoria basin (Western Macedonia, Greece) using EUROCORDEX regional climate models

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Northern Greece

<p>The Mediterranean region is expected to present reduced availability of water resources due to climate change. This study aims to assess the potential hydrological responses to climate change in the Kastoria basin (Western Macedonia, Northern Greece) for the period 2019-2078. Climate projections from eight regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX were bias-adjusted using the linear scaling method. The bias-adjusted climate data were used to force the FeFLOW hydro-logical model to predict the discharge of the Kastoria aquifer towards lake Orestiada along with the projected groundwater level distribution. Precipitation (temperature) shows a tendency to decrease (increase) mainly in late spring to early autumn while increase (decrease) in the other sea-sons. Moreover, results indicate a significant increase in temperature and a slight decrease in precipitation towards 2078, while the predicted groundwater level of Kastoria aquifer will reduce slightly. However, the future hydrological behavior of the basin indicates a substantial reduction by approximately 15% of total water yield towards the end of the century.</p>

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on temperature, precipitation and hydrology in Finland – studies using bias corrected Regional Climate Model data

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 2657-2706 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Olsson ◽  
J. Jakkila ◽  
N. Veijalainen ◽  
L. Backman ◽  
J. Kaurola ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Changes ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate and hydrology on catchment scale requires reliable information about the average values and climate fluctuations of the past, present and future. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used in impact studies often produce biased time series of meteorological variables. In this study bias correction of RCM temperature and precipitation for Finland is carried out using different versions of distribution based scaling (DBS) method. The DBS adjusted RCM data is used as input of a hydrological model to simulate changes in discharges in four study catchments in different parts of Finland. The annual mean discharges and seasonal variation simulated with the DBS adjusted temperature and precipitation data are sufficiently close to observed discharges in the control period (1961–2000) and produce more realistic projections for mean annual and seasonal changes in discharges than the uncorrected RCM data. Furthermore, with most scenarios the DBS method used preserves the temperature and precipitation trends of the uncorrected RCM data during 1961–2100. However, if the biases in the mean or the SD of the uncorrected temperatures are large, significant biases after DBS adjustment may remain or temperature trends may change, increasing the uncertainty of climate change projections. The DBS method influences especially the projected seasonal changes in discharges and the use of uncorrected data can produce unrealistic seasonal discharges and changes. The projected changes in annual mean discharges are moderate or small, but seasonal distribution of discharges will change significantly.

scholarly journals Simulation performance of selected global and regional climate models for temperature and rainfall in some locations in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-418
Author(s):  
SHWETA PANJWANI ◽  
S. NARESH KUMAR ◽  
LAXMI AHUJA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Simulation Performance ◽  
Climate Change Assessment ◽  
Better Than

Global and regional climate models are reported to have inherent bias in simulating the observed climatology of a region. This bias of climate models is the major source of uncertainties in climate change impact assessments. Therefore, use of bias corrected simulated climate data is important. In this study, the bias corrected climate data for 30 years’ period (1976-2005) from selected common fourGCMs and RCMs for six Indian locations are compared with the respective observed data of India Meteorological Department. The analysis indicated that the RCMs performance is much better than GCMs after bias correction for minimum and maximum temperatures. Also, RCMs performance is better than GCMs in simulating extreme temperatures. However, the selected RCMs and GCMs are found to either over estimate or under estimate the rainfall despite bias correction and also overestimated the rainfall extremes for selected Indian locations. Based on the overall performance of four models for the six locations, it was found that the GFDL_ESM2M and NORESM1-M RCMs performed comparatively better than CSIRO and IPSL models. After bias correction, the RCMs could represent the observed climatology better than the GCMs. And these RCMs viz., GFDL_ESM2M and NORESM1-M can be usedindividually after bias correction in the climate change assessment studies for the selected regions.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on the water and groundwater resources of the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tibebe B. Tigabu ◽  
Paul D. Wagner ◽  
Georg Hörmann ◽  
Jens Kiesel ◽  
Nicola Fohrer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Lake Tana ◽  
Lake Tana Basin

Abstract Climate change impacts on the water cycle can severely affect regions that rely on groundwater to meet their water demands in the mid- to long-term. In the Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia, discharge regimes are dominated by groundwater. We assess the impacts of climate change on the groundwater contribution to streamflow (GWQ) and other major water balance components in two tributary catchments of Lake Tana. Based on an ensemble of 35 bias-corrected regional climate models and a hydrologic catchment model, likely changes under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) are assessed. No or only slight changes in rainfall depth are expected, but the number of rainy days is expected to decrease. Compared to the baseline average, GWQ is projected to decrease whereas surface runoff is projected to increase. Hence, rainfall trends alone are not revealing future water availability and may even be misleading, if regions rely heavily on groundwater.

Urban-rural contrasts and extreme weather conditions in regional climate change projections across spatial and temporal scales

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaby S. Langendijk ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Urban Rural

&lt;p&gt;Urban areas are prone to climate change impacts. A transition towards sustainable urban areas is relying heavily on useful, evidence-based climate information on urban scales. However, current climate data and information produced by urban or climate models are are either not scale compliant for cities, or do not cover essential parameters and/or urban-rural interactions under climate change conditions. Furthermore, although e.g. the urban heat island may be better understood, other phenomena, such as moisture change, are little researched. Our research shows the potential of regional climate models, within the EURO-CORDEX framework, to provide climate projections and information on urban scales for 11km and 3km grid size. The city of Berlin is taken as a case-study. The results on the 11km spatial scale show that the regional climate models simulate a distinct difference between Berlin and its surroundings for temperature and humidity related variables. There is an increase in urban dry island conditions in Berlin towards the end of the 21st century. To gain a more detailed understanding of climate change impacts, extreme weather conditions were investigated under a 2&amp;#176;C global warming and further downscaled to the 3km scale. This enables the exploration of differences of the meteorological processes between the 11km and 3km scales, and the implications for urban areas and its surroundings. The overall study shows the potential of regional climate models to provide climate change information on urban scales.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

Reviewing our options: How can we address climate change impacts in hydrogeological studies?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Birk ◽  
Raoul Collenteur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Hydrogeology Journal ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Model Chain

&lt;p&gt;Arguably, the groundwater community has responded more slowly to the challenges posed by climate change than other fields of (hydrological) science. However, in recent years a strong increase in studies addressing climate change impacts on groundwater is observed, and recommendations on the methodology of such studies have been developed and discussed (e.g. Holman et al., Hydrogeology Journal, 2012). Following the common practice in other fields of climate change research, it was suggested that assessments of climate change impacts on groundwater should be based on multiple emission scenarios and a range of global and regional climate models. This scenario-based, top-down approach involves the propagation of multi-model ensembles through a model chain starting from emission scenarios to global and regional climate models to impact models such as hydrological and groundwater models. However, as the uncertainty increases at each step of the model chain, the uncertainty in the assessment of local climate change impacts and the resulting recommendations for adaptation options likely are very high and thus of little use in practice. A vulnerability-based, bottom-up approach starting from the identification and analysis of the factors that are relevant for coping with climate change in a given system, therefore, was proposed as a complementary approach (e.g. Wilby and Dessai, Weather, 2010). &amp;#8220;Storylines&amp;#8221; (Shephard et al., Climatic Change, 2018) that aim at representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change in an event-based rather than probabilistic way appear to be consistent with the latter concept. In this poster we relate these concepts of climate change research to methodological frameworks established in hydrogeological research (e.g. multi-model approaches). We present an overview of potential tools, such as trading-space-for-time, historical data analysis, sensitivity analysis, climate projections and controlled experiments, that can be used to study climate change impacts, and we discuss their role and applicability within more general methodological frameworks.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Assessment of climate change impact on hydrology of a transboundary river of Bhutan and India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phub Zam ◽  
Sangam Shrestha ◽  
Aakanchya Budhathoki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Transboundary River ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Assessing the impacts of climate change on a transboundary river plays an important role in sustaining water security within as well as beyond the national boundaries. At times, the unilateral decision taken by one country can increase the risk of negative effect on the riparian countries and if the impact is felt strongly by the other country, it can lead to international tension between them. This study examines the impact of climate change on hydrology between a shared river which is Wangchu river in Bhutan and Raidak river in India. The river is mainly used to produce hydropower in the two largest hydropower plants on which the majority of Bhutan's economic development depends and is mainly used for agriculture in India. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for future flow simulation. Future climate was projected for near future (NF) from 2025–2050 and far future (FF) from 2074–2099 using an ensemble of three regional climate models (ACCESS, CNRM-CM5 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario. The ensemble results indicated that, in future, the study area would become warmer with temperature increase of 1.5 °C under RCP 4.5 and 3.6 °C under RCP 8.5. However, as per RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, rainfall over the study area is projected to decrease by 1.90% and 1.38% respectively. As a consequence of the projected decrease in rainfall, the flow in river is projected to decrease by 5.77% under RCP 4.5 and 4.73% under RCP 8.5. Overall, the results indicated that the degree of hydrological change is expected to be higher, particularly for low flows in both Wangchu and Raidak River. Since transboundary water is a shared for economic growth, climate change adaptation and opportunities should also be considered by both the nations for better water management.

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