Downscaling technique to estimate hydrologic vulnerability to climate change: an application to the Conchos River Basin, Mexico

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 440-457 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iván Rivas Acosta ◽  
Martín José Montero Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that vulnerability to climate change depends on three main factors: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Each factor was evaluated in a hydrologic context, for instance exposure was interpreted as a change in surface runoff. Factors were combined using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and an overall methodology to map hydrologic vulnerability was proposed. The Conchos River Basin, which is the main tributary of the Rio Grande, was used as a case study. The long-term rate of change in surface runoff was estimated considering the variation in future precipitation from 23 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) by using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method. Two climate change scenarios (A1B and A2) and three time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2100) were chosen. Results showed a decrease in surface runoff up to 28% (A1B-2100) north of the Basin. Hence, it is likely to have more frequent droughts. However, it would be challenging to compensate the lack of surface runoff since groundwater resources are already depleted. Finally, overall hydrologic vulnerability maps were obtained to locate the most vulnerable regions, where precisely adaption efforts would be more necessary to sustain environmental conditions.

scholarly journals Hydrologic Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on the Flint River Basin, Georgia

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (20) ◽  
pp. 1-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roland J. Viger ◽  
Lauren E. Hay ◽  
Steven L. Markstrom ◽  
John W. Jones ◽  
Gary R. Buell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Watershed Model ◽  
Flint River

Abstract The potential effects of long-term urbanization and climate change on the freshwater resources of the Flint River basin were examined by using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land cover on streamflow and multiple intermediate hydrologic states. Precipitation and temperature output from five general circulation models (GCMs) using one current and three future climate-change scenarios were statistically downscaled for input into PRMS. Projections of urbanization through 2050 derived for the Flint River basin by the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land-Cover (FORE-SCE) land-cover change model were also used as input to PRMS. Comparison of the central tendency of streamflow simulated based on the three climate-change scenarios showed a slight decrease in overall streamflow relative to simulations under current conditions, mostly caused by decreases in the surface-runoff and groundwater components. The addition of information about forecasted urbanization of land surfaces to the hydrologic simulation mitigated the decreases in streamflow, mainly by increasing surface runoff.

scholarly journals Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 449-463 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Posch ◽  
J. Aherne ◽  
M. Forsius ◽  
S. Fronzek ◽  
N. Veijalainen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Chemical Recovery ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Sulphur Deposition ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2). The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change) and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change). Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation) on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador)

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Blanco-Gómez ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Series

This study assessed how changes in terms of temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in water availability and droughts in an area in a developing country with environmental interest. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on water resources of the Guajoyo River Basin in El Salvador. El Salvador is in one of the most vulnerable regions in Latin America to the effects of climate change. The predicted future climate change by two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and five general circulation models (GCMs) were considered. A statistical analysis was performed to identify which GCM was better in terms of goodness of fit to variation in means and standard deviations of the historical series. A significant decreasing trend in precipitation and a significant increase in annual average temperatures were projected by the middle and the end of the twenty–first century. The results indicated a decreasing trend of the amount of water available and more severe droughts for future climate scenarios with respect to the base period (1975–2004). These findings will provide local water management authorities useful information in the face of climate change to help decision making.

scholarly journals Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 3209-3248 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Posch ◽  
J. Aherne ◽  
M. Forsius ◽  
S. Fronzek ◽  
N. Veijalainen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Chemical Recovery ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2). The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change) and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change). Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation) on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. Predicted changes in dissolved organic carbon induced by reductions in acid deposition or increases in temperature may potentially influence the recovery of surface waters from acidification and may offset the increase in pH resulting from S deposition reductions. However, many climate-induced changes in processes are generally not incorporated in current versions of acidification models. To allow more reliable forecasts, the mechanisms by which climate changes affect key biogeochemical processes need to be incorporated directly into process-oriented models such as MAGIC.

scholarly journals Comprehensive assessment and scenario simulation for future of the hydrological processes in Dez river basin, Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Eini ◽  
Saman Javadi ◽  
Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany ◽  
Ozgur Kisi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Hydrological Simulation

Abstract Climate change is one of the leading factors that directly affect hydrological processes in large basins. This study assesses the impacts of climate change on streamflow, sediment and crop yield, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and water budget. In addition, the effects of land use and land cover (LULC) alteration with climate change on streamflow and sediment yield have been evaluated in the Dez river basin in the southwest of Iran. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) based on two scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the near period (2021–2040) are considered. Hydrological simulation is done by Soil and Water assessment tool (SWAT) with good performance in calibration (1990 to 2010) and validation (2010 to 2017) periods. The precipitation and temperature projected show a major upward trend related to the base period. The results showed that climate change increases the runoff and sediments. In addition, results projected that garden crop yields would increase while agricultural crop yields would decrease. Meanwhile, AET will face a slight decline of about 2%–6%. Combined LULC and climate change scenarios showed that with amplification of orchards areas, sediment load would decrease.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Be River Basin, Viet Nam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Truong Thao Sam ◽  
Pham Thi Loi ◽  
Bui Viet Hung ◽  
Van Thinh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In this paper, the responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin located in Southern Vietnam are investigated. Climate change scenarios for the study area were statistically downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator tool, which incorporates climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on an ensemble of five general circulation models (Can-ESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was employed to simulate streamflow for the baseline time period and three consecutive future 20 year periods of 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). Based on the simulation results, the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Discharge Index were estimated to evaluate the features of hydro-meteorological droughts. The hydrological drought has 1-month lag time from the meteorological drought and the hydro-meteorological droughts have negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Under the climate changing impacts, the trends of drought severity will decrease in the future; while the trends of drought frequency will increase in the near future period (2030s), but decrease in the following future periods (2050 and 2070s). The findings of this study can provide useful information to the policy and decisionmakers for a better future planning and management of water resources in the study region.

scholarly journals Climatic suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia in Malawi using climate change scenarios.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Junior Zuza ◽  
Yoseph Negusse Araya ◽  
Kadmiel Maseyk ◽  
Shonil A Bhagwat ◽  
Kaue de Sousa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Food Sources ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Species ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Model Approach

Climate change is altering suitable areas of crop species worldwide, with cascading effects on people and animals reliant upon those crop species as food sources. Macadamia is one of Malawi's most important and profitable crop species. Here, we used an ensemble model approach to determine the current distribution of macadamia producing areas across Malawi in relation to climate. For future distribution of suitable areas, we used the climate outputs of 17 general circulation models (GCM's) based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We found that the precipitation of the driest month and isothermality were the climatic variables that strongly influenced macadamia's suitability in Malawi. These climatic requirements were fulfilled across many areas in Malawi under the current conditions. Future projections indicated that large parts of Malawi's macadamia growing regions will remain suitable for macadamia, amounting to 36,910 km2 (39.1%) and 33,511 km2 (35.5%) of land based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Of concern, suitable areas for macadamia production are predicted to shrink by −18% (17,015 km2) and −22% (20,414 km2) based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, with much of the suitability shifting northwards. Although a net loss of area suitable for macadamia is predicted, some currently unsuitable areas will become suitable in the future. Notably, suitable areas will increase in Malawi's central and northern regions, while the southern region will lose most of its suitable areas. In conclusion, our study provides critical evidence that climate change will significantly affect the macadamia sub-sector in Malawi. Therefore area-specific adaptation strategies are required to build resilience.

scholarly journals Impact of future climate change on water supply and irrigation demand in a small mediterranean catchment. Case study: Nebhana dam system, Tunisia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1724-1747 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Allani ◽  
R. Mezzi ◽  
A. Zouabi ◽  
R. Béji ◽  
F. Joumade-Mansouri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Cycle Duration ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Time Periods

Abstract This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand of the Nebhana dam system. Future climate change scenarios were obtained from five general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for the time periods, 2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. Statistical downscaling was applied using LARS-WG. The GR2M hydrological model was calibrated, validated and used as input to the WEAP model to assess future water availability. Expected crop growth cycle lengths were estimated using a growing degree days model. By means of the WEAP-MABIA method, projected crop and irrigation water requirements were estimated. Results show an average increase in annual ETo of 6.1% and a decrease in annual rainfall of 11.4%, leading to a 24% decrease in inflow. Also, crops' growing cycles will decrease from 5.4% for wheat to 31% for citrus trees. The same tendency is observed for ETc. Concerning irrigation requirement, variations are more moderated depending on RCPs and time periods, and is explained by rainfall and crop cycle duration variations. As for demand and supply, results currently show that supply does not meet the system demand. Climate change could worsen the situation unless better planning of water surface use is done.

scholarly journals Long-Term Impacts of Partial Afforestation on Water and Salt Dynamics of an Intermittent Catchment under Climate Change

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Daneshmand ◽  
Sina Alaghmand ◽  
Matteo Camporese ◽  
Amin Talei ◽  
Pat J.-F. Yeh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Soil Salinization ◽  
Tree Planting ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Salt Depletion ◽  
Hadley Centre ◽  
Semi Arid

Soil salinization is a major environmental issue in arid and semi-arid regions, and has been accelerated in some areas by removal of native vegetation cover. Partial afforestation can be a practical mitigation strategy if efficiently integrated with farms and pastures. Using an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model, this study evaluates the water and salt dynamics and soil salinization conditions of a rural intermittent catchment in the semi-arid climate of southeast Australia subjected to four different partial afforestation configurations under different climate change scenarios, as predicted by several general circulation models. The results show that the locations of afforested areas can induce a retarding effect in the outflow of groundwater salt, with tree planting at lower elevations showing the steadier salt depletion rates. Moreover, except for the configuration with trees planted near the outlet of the catchment, the streamflow is maintained under all other configurations. It appears that under both Representative Concentration Pathways considered (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model represents the fastest salt export scheme, whereas the Canadian Earth System Model and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate represent the slowest salt export scheme. Overall, it is found that the location of partial afforestation generally plays a more significant role than the climate change scenarios.

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