Uncertainty of climate change and its impact on reference evapotranspiration in Rasht City, Iran

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heerbod Jahanbani ◽  
Lee Teang Shui ◽  
Alireza Massah Bavani ◽  
Abdul Halim Ghazali
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Model Version ◽  
The Impact

There are many factors of uncertainty regarding the impact of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The accuracy of the results is strictly related to these factors and ignoring any one of them reduces the precision of the results, and reduces their applicability for decision makers. In this study, the uncertainty related to two ETo models, the Hargreaves-Samani (HGS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) climatic model and the Canadian Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) climatic model under climate change, was evaluated. The models predicted average temperature increases by 2010 to 2039 of 0.95 °C by the HadCM3 model and 1.13°C by the CGCM3 model under the A2 scenario relative to observed temperature. Accordingly, the models predicted average ETo would increase of 0.48, 0.60, 0.50 and 0.60 (mm/day) by 2010 to 2039 projected by four methods (by introducing the temperature of the HadCM3-A2 model and the CGCM3-A2 to ANN and HGS) relative to ETo of the observed period. The results showed that uncertainty of the AOGCMs is more than that of the ETo models applied in this study.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Meningitis in Northwest Nigeria: An Assessment Using CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Auwal F. Abdussalam ◽  
Andrew J. Monaghan ◽  
Daniel F. Steinhoff ◽  
Vanja M. Dukic ◽  
Mary H. Hayden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Annual Incidence ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily populated northwest Nigeria with an annual incidence rate ranging from 18 to 200 per 100 000 people for 2000–11. Several studies have established that cases exhibit sensitivity to intra- and interannual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations of seven meteorological variables from an ensemble of 13 statistically downscaled global climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment (CMIP5) for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios, with the numbers representing the globally averaged top-of-the-atmosphere radiative imbalance (in W m−2) in 2100. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change have the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early (2020–35) and late (2060–75) twenty-first century, and for the seasonal onset of meningitis to begin about a month earlier on average by late century, in October rather than November. Annual incidence may increase by 47% ± 8%, 64% ± 9%, and 99% ± 12% for the RCP 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, in 2060–75 with respect to 1990–2005. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as it is assumed that current prevention and treatment strategies will remain similar in the future.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on hydrological patterns in Czech headwater catchments

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1245-1278 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Benčoková ◽  
P. Krám ◽  
J. Hruška
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Forested Catchments ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The aim of this study was to estimate the impacts of anticipated global climate change on runoff and evapotranspiration in small-forested catchments. The investigated Lysina and Pluhův Bor catchments are situated in the Slavkov Forest in the western part of the Czech Republic. To forecast hydrological patterns for the period 2071–2100, outputs from two general circulation models, HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, were downscaled by an RCAO (regional climate model) which ran the SRES emission scenarios A2 and B2 for each model. Bias-corrected RCAO daily outputs were used in combination with the hydrological model Brook90. Annual runoff is predicted to decline by 6–45%, and impacts on the distribution of monthly flow are predicted to be significant, with summer-autumn decreases of 29–96%, and winter increases of up to ~48% compared to mean flow from 1967–1990. Mean daily flows are estimated to decrease by 63–94% from August to November. These changes would have serious ecological consequences, since streams could regularly dry-up for short periods of time.

scholarly journals The impact of the climate change on discharge of Suir River Catchment (Ireland) under different climate scenarios

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Wang ◽  
R. McGrath ◽  
T. Semmler ◽  
C. Sweeney ◽  
P. Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of climate change on local discharge variability is investigated in the Suir River Catchment which is located in the south-east of Ireland. In this paper, the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA) is driven by different global climate data sets. For the past climate (1961–2000), the model is driven by ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40) data as well as by the output of the general circulation models (GCM's) ECHAM4 and ECHAM5. For the future simulation (2021–2060), the model is driven by two GCM scenarios: ECHAM4_B2 and ECHAM5_A2. To investigate the influence of changed future climate on local discharge, the precipitation of the model output is used as input for the HBV hydrological model. The calibration and validation results of our ERA-40 driven present day simulation shows that the HBV model can reproduce the discharge fairly well, except the extreme discharge is systematically underestimated by about 15–20%. Altogether the application of a high resolution regional climate model in connection with a conceptual hydrological model is capable of capturing the local variability of river discharge for present-day climate using boundary values assimilated with observations such as ERA-40 data. However, using GCM data to drive RCA and HBV suggests, that there is still large uncertainty connected with the GCM formulation: For present day climate the validation of the ECHAM4 and ECHAM5 driven simulations indicates stronger discharge compared to the observations due to overprediction of precipitation, especially for the ECHAM5 driven simulation in the summer season. Whereas according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario the discharge generally increases – most pronounced in the wet winter time, there are only slight increases in winter and considerable decreases in summer according to the ECHAM5_A2 scenario. This also leads to a different behaviour in the evolution of return levels of extreme discharge events: Strong increases according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario and slight decreases according to the ECHAM5_A2 scenario.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

Constraining the model representation of the aerosol life cycle in relation to sources and sinks.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Kim ◽  
Daniel Partridge ◽  
James Haywood
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Microphysical Properties ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Source And Sink

<p>Global climate model (GCM) ensembles still produce a significant spread of estimates for the future of climate change which hinders our ability to influence policymakers. The range of these estimates can only partly be explained by structural differences and varying choice of parameterisation schemes between GCMs. GCM representation of cloud and aerosol processes, more specifically aerosol microphysical properties, remain a key source of uncertainty contributing to the wide spread of climate change estimates. The radiative effect of aerosol is directly linked to the microphysical properties and these are in turn controlled by aerosol source and sink processes during transport as well as meteorological conditions.</p><p>A Lagrangian, trajectory-based GCM evaluation framework, using spatially and temporally collocated aerosol diagnostics, has been applied to over a dozen GCMs via the AeroCom initiative. This framework is designed to isolate the source and sink processes that occur during the aerosol life cycle in order to improve the understanding of the impact of these processes on the simulated aerosol burden. Measurement station observations linked to reanalysis trajectories are then used to evaluate each GCM with respect to a quasi-observational standard to assess GCM skill. The AeroCom trajectory experiment specifies strict guidelines for modelling groups; all simulations have wind fields nudged to ERA-Interim reanalysis and all simulations use emissions from the same inventories. This ensures that the discrepancies between GCM parameterisations are emphasised and differences due to large scale transport patterns, emissions and other external factors are minimised.</p><p>Preliminary results from the AeroCom trajectory experiment will be presented and discussed, some of which are summarised now. A comparison of GCM aerosol particle number size distributions against observations made by measurement stations in different environments will be shown, highlighting the difficulties that GCMs have at reproducing observed aerosol concentrations across all size ranges in pristine environments. The impact of precipitation during transport on aerosol microphysical properties in each GCM will be shown and the implications this has on resulting aerosol forcing estimates will be discussed. Results demonstrating the trajectory collocation framework will highlight its ability to give more accurate estimates of the key aerosol sources in GCMs and the importance of these sources in influencing modelled aerosol-cloud effects. In summary, it will be shown that this analysis approach enables us to better understand the drivers behind inter-model and model-observation discrepancies.</p>

scholarly journals Decadal Prediction of the Sahelian Precipitation in CMIP5 Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 7708-7719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Gaetani ◽  
Elsa Mohino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Coupled Global Climate Model

Abstract In this study the capability of eight state-of-the-art ocean–atmosphere coupled models in predicting the monsoonal precipitation in the Sahel on a decadal time scale is assessed. To estimate the importance of the initialization, the predictive skills of two different CMIP5 experiments are compared, a set of 10 decadal hindcasts initialized every 5 years in the period 1961–2009 and the historical simulations in the period 1961–2005. Results indicate that predictive skills are highly model dependent: the Fourth Generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CanCM4), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model, version 5 (CNRM-CM5), and Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) models show improved skill in the decadal hindcasts, while the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 5 (MIROC5) is skillful in both the decadal and historical experiments. The Beijing Climate Center, Climate System Model, version 1.1 (BCC-CSM1.1), Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 5, coupled with NEMO, low resolution (IPSL-CM5A-LR), and Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model, version 3 (MRI-CGCM3) models show insignificant or no skill in predicting the Sahelian precipitation. Skillful predictions are produced by models properly describing the SST multidecadal variability and the initialization appears to play an important role in this respect.

scholarly journals Modelling the impacts of climate change on tropospheric ozone over three centuries

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 6805-6843 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Hedegaard ◽  
A. Gross ◽  
J. H. Christensen ◽  
W. May ◽  
H. Skov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Concentration ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
The Arctic

Abstract. The ozone chemistry over three centuries has been simulated based on climate prediction from a global climate model and constant anthropogenic emissions in order to separate out the effects on air pollution from climate change. Four decades in different centuries has been simulated using the chemistry version of the atmospheric long-range transport model; the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) forced with meteorology predicted by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model. The largest changes in both meteorology, ozone and its precursors is found in the 21st century, however, also significant changes are found in the 22nd century. At surface level the ozone concentration is predicted to increase due to climate change in the areas where substantial amounts of ozone precursors are emitted. Elsewhere a significant decrease is predicted at the surface. In the free troposphere a general increase is found in the entire Northern Hemisphere except in the tropics, where the ozone concentration is decreasing. In the Arctic the ozone concentration will increase in the entire air column, which most likely is due to changes in transport. The change in temperature, humidity and the naturally emitted Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) are governing with respect to changes in ozone both in the past, present and future century.

Eco-efficient flight trajectories – Using a Lagrangian approach in EMAC to investigate contrail formation in the mid latitudes 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Peter ◽  
Sigrun Matthes ◽  
Christine Frömming ◽  
Volker Grewe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Aircraft Trajectories ◽  
The Impact

<p>Air transport has for a long time been linked to environmental issues like pollution, noise and climate change. While CO2 emissions are the main focus in public discussions, non-CO2 emissions of aviation may have a similar impact on the climate as aviation's carbon dioxide, e.g. contrail cirrus, nitrogen oxides or aviation induced cloudiness. While the effects of CO2 on climate are independent of location and situation during release, non-CO2 effects such as contrail formation vary depending on meteorological background. Previous studies investigated the influence of different weather situations on aviation’s climate change contribution, identifying climate sensitive regions and generating data products which enable air traffic management (ATM) to plan for climate optimized trajectories.</p> <p>The research presented here focuses on the further development of methods to determine the sensitivity of the atmosphere to aviation emissions with respect to climate effects in order to determine climate optimized aircraft trajectories. While previous studies focused on characterizing the North Atlantic Flight Corridor region, this study aims to extend the geographic scope by performing Lagrangian simulations in a global climate model EMAC for the northern hemispheric extratropical regions and tropical latitudes. This study addresses how realistically the physical conditions and processes for contrail formation and life cycle are represented in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere by comparing them to airborne observations (HALO measurement campaign, CARIBIC/IAGOS scheduled flight measurements), examining key variables such as temperature or humidity. Direct comparison of model data with observations using clusters of data provides insight into the extent to which systematic biases exist that are relevant to the climate effects of contrails. We perform this comparison for different vertical resolutions to assess which vertical resolution in the EMAC model is well suited for studying contrail formation. Together with this model evaluation using aircraft measurements, the overall concept for studying the life cycle of contrails in the modular global climate model EMAC is introduced. Hereby, the concept for the development of a MET service that can be provided to ATM to evaluate contrail formation and its impact on the climate along planned aircraft trajectories is presented.</p> <p>Within the ClimOP collaborative project, we can investigate which physical processes determine the effects of contrails on climate and study their spatial and temporal variation. In addition, these climate change functions enable case studies that assess the impact of contrails on climate along trajectories and use alternative trajectories that avoid these regions of the atmosphere that have the potential to form contrails with a large radiative effect.</p> <p>This study is part of the ClimOP project and has received funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement N° 875503 (ClimOP) and from the SESAR Joint Undertaking under grant agreements No 699395 (FlyATM4E). </p>

scholarly journals Characterizing Sierra Nevada Snowpack Using Variable-Resolution CESM

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 173-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan M. Rhoades ◽  
Xingying Huang ◽  
Paul A. Ullrich ◽  
Colin M. Zarzycki
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Variable Resolution

AbstractThe location, timing, and intermittency of precipitation in California make the state integrally reliant on winter-season snowpack accumulation to maintain its economic and agricultural livelihood. Of particular concern is that winter-season snowpack has shown a net decline across the western United States over the past 50 years, resulting in major uncertainty in water-resource management heading into the next century. Cutting-edge tools are available to help navigate and preemptively plan for these uncertainties. This paper uses a next-generation modeling technique—variable-resolution global climate modeling within the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM)—at horizontal resolutions of 0.125° (14 km) and 0.25° (28 km). VR-CESM provides the means to include dynamically large-scale atmosphere–ocean drivers, to limit model bias, and to provide more accurate representations of regional topography while doing so in a more computationally efficient manner than can be achieved with conventional general circulation models. This paper validates VR-CESM at climatological and seasonal time scales for Sierra Nevada snowpack metrics by comparing them with the “Daymet,” “Cal-Adapt,” NARR, NCEP, and North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) reanalysis datasets, the MODIS remote sensing dataset, the SNOTEL observational dataset, a standard-practice global climate model (CESM), and a regional climate model (WRF Model) dataset. Overall, given California’s complex terrain and intermittent precipitation and that both of the VR-CESM simulations were only constrained by prescribed sea surface temperatures and data on sea ice extent, a 0.68 centered Pearson product-moment correlation, a negative mean SWE bias of <7 mm, an interquartile range well within the values exhibited in the reanalysis datasets, and a mean December–February extent of snow cover that is within 7% of the expected MODIS value together make apparent the efficacy of the VR-CESM framework.

scholarly journals How Can Climate Change Affect the UNESCO Cultural Heritage Sites in Panama?

Geosciences ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Ciantelli ◽  
Elisa Palazzi ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Carmela Vaccaro ◽  
Francesca Tittarelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Construction Materials ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Heritage Sites ◽  
The Impact

This work investigates the impact of long-term climate change on heritage sites in Latin America, focusing on two important sites in the Panamanian isthmus included in the World Heritage List: the monumental site of Panamá Viejo (16th century) and the Fortresses of Portobelo and San Lorenzo (17th to 18th centuries). First of all, in order to support the conservation and valorisation of these sites, a characterisation of the main construction materials utilized in the building masonries was performed together with an analysis of the meteoclimatic conditions in their vicinity as provided by monitoring stations recording near-surface air temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall amounts. Secondly, the same climate variables were analysed in the historical and future simulations of a state-of-the-art global climate model, EC-Earth, run at high horizontal resolution, and then used with damage functions to make projections of deterioration phenomena on the Panamanian heritage sites. In particular, we performed an evaluation of the possible surface recession, biomass accumulation, and deterioration due to salt crystallisation cycles on these sites in the future (by midcentury, 2039–2068) compared to the recent past (1979–2008), considering a future scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions.

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