scholarly journals Modeling streamflow and sediment responses to climate change and human activities in the Yanhe River, China

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 150-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingwen Wu ◽  
Chiyuan Miao ◽  
Tiantian Yang ◽  
Qingyun Duan ◽  
Xiaoming Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Pettitt Test ◽  
Elevation Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Quantifying the impact of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes is of great importance for regional water-resource management. In this study, trend analysis and analysis of the short-term variations in annual streamflow and sediment load in the Yanhe River Basin (YRB) during the period 1972–2011 were conducted using linear regression and the Pettitt test. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the hydrological processes. The results show that both annual mean streamflow and annual mean sediment load in the YRB significantly decreased (P < 0.05) during the study period. The relative contributions from climate change and human activities to YRB streamflow decline between 1996 and 2011 were estimated to be 55.8 and 44.2%, respectively. In contrast to the results for streamflow, the dominant cause of YRB sediment-load decline was human activity (which explained 64% of the decrease), rather than climate change. The study also demonstrates that topographical characteristics (watershed subdivision threshold value, digital elevation model spatial resolution) can cause uncertainties in the simulated streamflow and sediment load. The results presented in this paper will increase understanding of the mechanisms of soil loss and will enable more efficient management of water resources in the YRB.

scholarly journals Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 893-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonghuan Fang ◽  
Jing Yang ◽  
Yaning Chen ◽  
Zhi Li ◽  
Philippe De Maeyer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Quantifying the uncertainty sources in assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes is helpful for local water management decision-making. This paper investigated the impact of the general circulation model (GCM) structural uncertainty on hydrological processes in the Kaidu River Basin. Outputs of 21 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), representing future climate change under uncertainty, were first bias-corrected using four precipitation and three temperature methods and then used to force a well-calibrated hydrological model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) in the study area. Results show that the precipitation will increase by 3.1%–18% and 7.0%–22.5%, the temperature will increase by 2.0 °C–3.3 °C and 4.2 °C–5.5 °C and the streamflow will change by −26% to 3.4% and −38% to −7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Timing of snowmelt will shift forward by approximately 1–2 months for both scenarios. Compared to RCPs and bias correction methods, GCM structural uncertainty contributes most to streamflow uncertainty based on the standard deviation method (55.3%) while it is dominant based on the analysis of variance approach (94.1%).

scholarly journals Quantifying the Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Water Volume in Lake Qinghai, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 99
Author(s):  
Guoqing Yang ◽  
Miao Zhang ◽  
Zhenghui Xie ◽  
Jiyuan Li ◽  
Mingguo Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Volume Change ◽  
Lake Water ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Lake Qinghai ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change

Lake Qinghai has shrunk and then expanded over the past few decades. Quantifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to lake variation is important for water resource management and adaptation to climate change. In this study, we calculated the water volume change of Lake Qinghai, analyzed the climate and land use changes in Lake Qinghai catchment, and distinguished the contributions of climate change and local human activities to water volume change. The results showed that lake water volume decreased by 9.48 km3 from 1975 to 2004 and increased by 15.18 km3 from 2005 to 2020. The climate in Lake Qinghai catchment is becoming warmer and more pluvial, and the changes in land use have been minimal. Based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), land use change, climate change and interaction effect of them contributed to 7.46%, 93.13% and −0.59%, respectively, on the variation in surface runoff into the lake. From the perspective of the water balance, we calculated the proportion of each component flowing into and out of the lake and found that the contribution of climate change to lake water volume change was 97.55%, while the local human activities contribution was only 2.45%. Thus, climate change had the dominant impact on water volume change in Lake Qinghai.

Decline of sediment transport due to damming and eco-engineering is approaching its limits

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boyan Li ◽  
Yunchen Wang ◽  
Chao Wang ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Aiwen Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Sediment transport from rivers to ocean is increasingly influenced by climate change and intensive human activities1, constituting a research priority of global relevance2. However, little attention has been paid to quantify and predict the contribution of driving factors to the sediment load. By integrating local-scale hydrologic modeling with soil erosion estimation model, and the soil erosion and sediment yield balance equation, we quantify watershed-scale changes in sediment load under forecasted climate change and human activities in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China. We also develop a new metric, the sediment load sensitivity index, that identifies sensitive to anthropogenic variability over the past 30 years. It was found that the reservoirs deposition was the primary factor (81.37 %) among human activities contributing to the decline in sediment load, followed by the soil and water conservation measures (SWCM) (18.63 %). The sediment load shows a slight increasing trend for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming at 2020–2039 and 2040–2059, respectively. Climate change dominates the sediment load trend in the future due to the effectiveness of dams and reservoirs decreases and the saturation of the capacity of the SWCM to capture sediment. Although these findings indicate the importance of the impact of climate change on changes in sediment load, it is necessary to apply them to appropriate management to adapt to climate changes in future river basin management policies.

scholarly journals The impact of land use and land cover change on hydrological processes in Brantas watershed, East Java, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamad Wawan Sujarwo ◽  
◽  
Indarto Indarto ◽  
Marga Mandala ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
The Impact

Assessing the impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on hydrology is essential for water resource management. The Brantas watershed contributes about 30% of the water supply of the East Java region. The present rapid pace of land occupation for agriculture and settlements is expected to continue to alter flow processes within the watershed. This study aims to simulate LULCC and its impact on the hydrological processes of the watershed. The long-term impact of LULCC is evaluated using the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The analysis model is calibrated using monthly data series from 1996 to 2005 and then validated using data series from 2006 to 2015. Two editions of maps (2001 and 2015) are then used to calculate the LULCC that took place across this time period. The impacts of LULCC on hydrological processes at the sub-basin level are also evaluated. The results show that the variability of rainfall patterns from 2001 to 2015 strongly affected flow variability. The LULCC from agricultural land to other uses (irrigated rice fields, settlements and forests/plantations) is most evident in three sub-basins (sub-basins 2, 9 and 17). However, each sub-basin may respond differently with respect to the LULCC taking place. The increase in area occupied by each class of land use and cover use (LULC) is not always linear to the observed flow, and widely differing LULC classes may display similar flow responses while classes with similar characteristics may have differing impacts on flows within a sub-basin. In other words, the hydrological processes taking place are too complex to be simplified at the sub-basin level.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Reservoir Impacts on 21st-Century Streamflow and Fluvial Sediment Loads in the Irrawaddy River, Myanmar

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. A. J. G. Sirisena ◽  
Shreedhar Maskey ◽  
Janaka Bamunawala ◽  
Roshanka Ranasinghe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Fluvial Sediment ◽  
Sediment Loads ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Reservoirs play a vital role in water resource management, while also contributing to alterations in downstream flow regimes and sediment load in the river. On the other hand, variations on streamflow and fluvial sediment loads can also result from climate change effects. Here, we assess future changes in streamflow and sediment load due to climate change and planned reservoirs in the Irrawaddy River Basin, Myanmar. The Soil Water Assessment Tool is used to project streamflow and sediment loads during 2046–2065 (mid-century), and 2081–2100 (end-century) periods under the two end-member Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) with and without planned reservoirs. Results show that compared to the baseline period (1991–2005), streamflow and sediment loads are projected to substantially increase during mid- and end-century periods when planned reservoirs are not considered (i.e., with climate change forcing only). Under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, streamflow at the basin outlet is projected to increase by 8–17% and 9–45%, while sediment loads are projected to increase by 13–26% and 18–75%, respectively by the end-century period. When reservoirs are included, while annual streamflow at the basin outlet does not show a significant difference compared to the climate change only case (for any RCP and for both future time periods considered), annual sediment loads at the basin outlet are projected to slightly decrease (compared to the climate change only case) by 4–6% under RCP 8.5 during the end-century period. However, at seasonal time scales, streamflow and sediment loads at the basin outlet are significantly affected by upstream reservoirs. During the monsoon periods, the presence of planned reservoirs is projected to decrease streamflow at the basin outlet by 6–7%, while during non-monsoon periods, the reservoirs result in an increase of 32–38% in the streamflow at the outlet under RCP 8.5 during the end-century period. Similarly, for the same period and RCP 8.5, due to the planned reservoirs, sediment load is projected to decrease by 9–11% and increase by 32–44% in monsoonal and non-monsoonal periods, respectively.

scholarly journals Quantifying the Impacts of Coal Mining and Soil-Water Conservation on Runoff in a Typical Watershed on the Loess Plateau, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 3229
Author(s):  
Binbin Lin ◽  
Yicheng Wang ◽  
Hejia Wang ◽  
Weihua Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Soil Water ◽  
Coal Mining ◽  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
The Loess Plateau ◽  
Runoff Decrease ◽  
The Impact

Coal mining and soil-water conservation are the two major human interventions on the Loess Plateau in China. Analyzing their impacts on hydrological processes is of great significance for sustainable water resource management. Using hydrological simulation (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a data-driven method (double mass curve, DMC), the contributions of these two human activities and climate change to the runoff decrease were analyzed in the upper Fenhe River. The runoff in the three affected periods (1967–1987, 1988–1994, and 1995–2017) decreased by 7.5%, 28.2%, and 24.1%, respectively, compared with the base period (1957–1966). In the first affected period (1967–1987), the amount of coal mining activities was small, human activities had little impact on runoff. In the second (1988–1994) and third (1995–2017) periods, as the coal mining and soil-water conservation intensified, their contributions to the runoff decrease rapidly increased. Due to the uncertainties in the model structure and parameters, in addition to the impact of the data accuracy, the results obtained from the two methods were different, but the proportions and the trends of the contribution rates in the different periods were consistent.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Viet Thang ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Ho Long Phi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Soil Erosion in the Xihe River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1085 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshan Guo ◽  
Zhengru Zhu ◽  
Leting Lyu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Validation Period ◽  
Total Change ◽  
Calibration Period

Climate change and human activities are the major factors affecting runoff and sediment load. We analyzed the inter-annual variation trend of the average rainfall, air temperature, runoff and sediment load in the Xihe River Basin from 1969–2015. Pettitt’s test and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used to detect sudden change in hydro-meteorological variables and simulate the basin hydrological cycle, respectively. According to the simulation results, we explored spatial distribution of soil erosion in the watershed by utilizing ArcGIS10.0, analyzed the average erosion modulus by different type of land use, and quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff and sediment load in changes. The results showed that: (1) From 1969–2015, both rainfall and air temperature increased, and air temperature increased significantly (p < 0.01) at 0.326 °C/10 a (annual). Runoff and sediment load decreased, and sediment load decreased significantly (p < 0.01) at 1.63 × 105 t/10 a. In 1988, air temperature experienced a sudden increase and sediment load decreased. (2) For runoff, R2 and Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (Ens) were 0.92 and 0.91 during the calibration period and 0.90 and 0.87 during the validation period, for sediment load, R2 and Ens were 0.60 and 0.55 during the calibration period and 0.70 and 0.69 during the validation period, meeting the model’s applicability requirements. (3) Soil erosion was worse in the upper basin than other regions, and highest in cultivated land. Climate change exacerbates runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of −26.54% and −8.8%, respectively. Human activities decreased runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of 126.54% and 108.8% respectively. Runoff and sediment load change in the Xihe River Basin are largely caused by human activities.

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