scholarly journals Spatial and temporal variability of seasonal precipitation in Poyang Lake basin and possible links with climate indices

2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (S1) ◽  
pp. 51-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Shao ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
Sunyun Lv ◽  
Jianping Bing
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Cross Wavelet

Based on the precipitation data of 21 meteorological stations in Poyang Lake basin, the temporal and spatial variability of seasonal precipitation was analyzed by wavelet analysis method. This study adopted the cross wavelet transform to analyze the correlation between the seasonal precipitation and climate indices in time and frequency scales, discussed the possible links between its precipitation variations and climate indices, and preliminarily analyzed its mechanism and regular pattern of variation. The results showed that the oscillations in 2–4 years' and 4–8 years' bands were the main variation periods of seasonal precipitation in Poyang Lake basin. In the 2–4 years' band, the years of rainfall peaks appearing in Poyang Lake were basically consistent with the years when El Niño appeared, and the precipitation oscillations in summer appeared more dramatic in space. According to analysis on the cross wavelet power spectra between different seasonal rainfalls and climate indices, certain correlations between climate factors and seasonal precipitation had existed in specific time periods. Large-scale climate oscillations like the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation caused the variability of large-scale circulations through their respective independent or inter-coupled climate systems, and affected the precipitation distribution in Poyang Lake basin by changing local climate conditions like the East Asian Monsoon.

scholarly journals Regional Characteristics of Long-Term Variability of Summer Precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin and Possible Links with Large-Scale Circulations

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1033
Author(s):  
Hua Zhu ◽  
Handan He ◽  
Hongxiang Fan ◽  
Ligang Xu ◽  
Jiahu Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Regional Characteristics ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Region I ◽  
Region Ii

Understanding the spatiotemporal regime of summer precipitation at local scales plays a key role in regional prevention and mitigation of floods disasters and water resources management. Previous works focused on spatiotemporal characteristics of a region as a whole but left the influence of associated physical factors on sub-regions unexplored. Based on the precipitation data of 77 meteorological stations in the Poyang Lake basin (PYLB) from 1959 to 2013, we have investigated regional characteristics of summer precipitation in the PYLB by integrating the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis with hierarchical clustering algorithm (HCA). Then the long-term variability of summer precipitation in sub-regions of the PYLB and possible links with large-scale circulations was investigated using multiple trend analyses, wavelet analysis and correlation analysis. The results indicate that summer precipitation variations in the PYLB were of very striking regional characteristics. The PYLB was divided into three independent sub-regions based on two leading REOF modes and silhouette coefficient (SC). These sub-regions were located in northern PYLB (sub-region I), central PYLB (sub-region II), and southern PYLB (sub-region III). The summer precipitation in different sub-regions exhibited distinct variation trends and periodicities, which was associated with different factors. All sub-regions show no trends over the whole period 1959–2013, rather they show trends in different periods. Trends per decade in annual summer precipitation in sub-region I and sub-region II were consistent for all periods with different start and end years. The oscillations periods with 2–3 years were found in summer precipitation of all the three sub-regions. Summer precipitation in sub-region I was significantly positively correlated with the previous Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, but negatively correlated with East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). While summer precipitation in sub-region II and sub-region III showed weak teleconnections with climate indices. All of the results of this study are conducive to further understand both the regional climate variations in the PYLB and response to circulation patterns variations.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variations of Drought and Their Teleconnections with Large-Scale Climate Indices over the Poyang Lake Basin, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weilin Liu ◽  
Shengnan Zhu ◽  
Yipeng Huang ◽  
Yifan Wan ◽  
Bin Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variations ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Decadal Scale

The intensity and frequency of droughts in Poyang Lake Basin have been increasing due to global warming. To properly manage water resources and mitigate drought disasters, it is important to understand the long-term characteristics of drought and its possible link with large-scale climate indices. Based on the monthly meteorological data of 41 meteorological stations in Poyang Lake Basin from 1958 to 2017, the spatiotemporal variations of drought were investigated using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) methods and the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) trend test were used to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of drought. Furthermore, to reveal possible links between drought variations and large-scale climate indices in Poyang Lake Basin, the relationships between SPEI and large-scale climate indices, such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were examined using cross-wavelet transform. The results showed that the SPEI in Poyang Lake Basin exhibited relatively stable quasi-periodic oscillation, with approximate quasi-3-year and quasi-6-year periods at the inter-annual scale and quasi-15-year and quasi-30-year periods at the inter-decadal scale from 1958 to 2017. Moreover, the Poyang Lake Basin experienced an insignificantly wetter trend as a whole at the annual and seasonal scales during the period of 1958–2017, except for spring, which had a drought trend. The special characteristics of the trend variations were markedly different in the basin. The areas in which drought was most likely to occur were mainly located in the Poyang Lake region, northwest and south of the basin, respectively. Furthermore, relationships between the drought and six climate indices showed that the drought exhibited a significant temporal correlation with five climate indices at restricted intervals, except for IOD. The dominant influences of the large-scale climate indices on the drought evolutions shifted in the Poyang Lake Basin during 1958–2017, from the NAO, Niño 3.4, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) before the late 1960s and early 1970s, to the AO and PDO during the 1980s, then to the NAO, AO and SOI after the early 2000s. The NAO, AO and SOI exerted a significant influence on the drought events in the basin. The results of this study will benefit regional water resource management, agriculture production, and ecosystem protection in the Poyang Lake Basin.

Poyang Lake basin: a successful, large-scale integrated basin management model for developing countries

2011 ◽  
Vol 63 (9) ◽  
pp. 1899-1905 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meiqiu Chen ◽  
Xiaohua Wei ◽  
Hongsheng Huang ◽  
Tiangui Lü
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Clear Water ◽  
Basin Management ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin

Protection of water environment while developing socio-economy is a challenging task for lake regions of many developing countries. Poyang Lake is the largest fresh water lake in China, with its total drainage area of 160,000 km2. In spite of rapid development of socio-economy in Poyang Lake region in the past several decades, water in Poyang Lake is of good quality and is known as the “last pot of clear water” of the Yangtze River Basin in China. In this paper, the reasons of “last pot of clear water” of Poyang Lake were analysed to demonstrate how economic development and environmental protection can be coordinated. There are three main reasons for contributing to this coordinated development: 1) the unique geomorphologic features of Poyang Lake and the short water residence time; 2) the matching of the basin physical boundary with the administrative boundary; and 3) the implementation of “Mountain-River-Lake Program” (MRL), with the ecosystem concept of “mountain as source, river as connection flow, and lake as storage”. In addition, a series of actions have been taken to coordinate development, utilisation, management and protection in the Poyang Lake basin. Our key experiences are: considering all basin components when focusing on lake environment protection is a guiding principle; raising the living standard of people through implementation of various eco-economic projects or models in the basin is the most important strategy; preventing soil and water erosion is critical for protecting water sources; and establishing an effective governance mechanism for basin management is essential. This successful, large-scale basin management model can be extended to any basin or lake regions of developing countries where both environmental protection and economic development are needed and coordinated.

Nonstationarity and clustering of flood characteristics and relations with the climate indices in the Poyang Lake basin, China

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (11) ◽  
pp. 1809-1824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianyu Liu ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Vijay P. Singh ◽  
Xihui Gu ◽  
Peijun Shi
Keyword(s):  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Flood Characteristics

scholarly journals Variation in Seasonal Precipitation over Gaza (Palestine) and Its Sensitivity to Teleconnection Patterns

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 667
Author(s):  
Salah Basem Ajjur ◽  
Sami G. Al-Ghamdi
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies

The seasonal precipitation (SP) trend and its sensitivity to teleconnection patterns over the East Mediterranean (EM) region remain inconsistent. Based on rainfall records during 1974–2016 at seven meteorological stations in the Gaza region, this study aims to (1) analyze the observed SP trend over the Gaza region, and (2) examine the SP sensitivity to climate indices. Pearson and Spearman correlations between climate indices and SP in the current and following years were calculated, and the seasonal period (particular month) with the highest correlation was identified. Results show that the climate indices, with greater impact on SP over the Gaza region in the autumn and spring, were in the order; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) > East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) > North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) > Arctic Oscillation (AO). The indices’ impact was minimal in the winter precipitation. ENSO types’ correlations (Southern Oscillation Index-SOI and Niño 3.4) were moderate and significant at α = 0.05. Rainfall at most stations positively correlates with AO and EAWR in spring and autumn. During the study period, warm phases of ENSO (i.e., El Niño) intensified autumn precipitation. Simultaneously with warm phases of EAWR or AO, more influence on autumn precipitation is exerted. Cold phases of ENSO (i.e., La Niña) have an adverse impact compared to El Niño. EAWR co-variation was evident only with the ENSO. Regarding AO, a non-meaningful action was noticed during the neutral phases of ENSO and EAWR. The findings of this study help understand and predict the seasonal trend of precipitation over the Gaza region. This is essential to set up climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in the EM region.

scholarly journals Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Mortensen ◽  
Shu Wu ◽  
Michael Notaro ◽  
Steven Vavrus ◽  
Rob Montgomery ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Southern Peru ◽  
Drought Prediction

Abstract. Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semi-arid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal drought. Droughts here are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region’s hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead drought prediction model is developed to help bolster existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate the deleterious impacts of this hydrologic extreme. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to eleven potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of January-March precipitation. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. Extending the lead time and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers preparing for drought.

scholarly journals Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 287-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Mortensen ◽  
Shu Wu ◽  
Michael Notaro ◽  
Stephen Vavrus ◽  
Rob Montgomery ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Southern Peru ◽  
Drought Prediction

Abstract. Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January–March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño–Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit–miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet–dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

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