scholarly journals A reliable rainfall–runoff model for flood forecasting: review and application to a semi-urbanized watershed at high flood risk in Italy

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 726-740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Masseroni ◽  
Alessio Cislaghi ◽  
Stefania Camici ◽  
Christian Massari ◽  
Luca Brocca
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Median Volume ◽  
Flood Estimation ◽  
High Flood ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Flooding Events

Many rainfall–runoff (RR) models are available in the scientific literature. Selecting the best structure and parameterization for a model is not straightforward and depends on a broad number of factors, including climatic conditions, catchment characteristics, temporal/spatial resolution and model objectives. In this study, the RR model ‘Modello Idrologico Semi-Distribuito in continuo’ (MISDc), mainly developed for flood simulation in Mediterranean basins, was tested on the Seveso basin, which is stressed several times a year by flooding events mainly caused by excessive urbanization. The work summarizes a compendium of the MISDc applications over a wide range of catchments in European countries and then it analyses the performances over the Seveso basin. The results show a good fit behaviour during both the calibration and the validation periods with a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient index larger than 0.9. Moreover, the median volume and peak discharge errors calculated on several flood events were less than 25%. In conclusion, we can be assured that the reliability and computational speed could make the MISDc model suitable for flood estimation in many catchments of different geographical contexts and land use characteristics. Moreover, MISDc will also be useful for future support of real-time decision-making for flood risk management in the Seveso basin.

scholarly journals Analysis of low flow indices under varying climatic conditions in Poland

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 373-389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marzena Osuch ◽  
Renata Romanowicz ◽  
Wai K. Wong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Objective Functions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model ◽  
Simulated Time

Abstract Changes in low flow indices under future climates are estimated for eight catchments in Poland. A simulation approach is used to derive daily flows under changing climatic conditions, following RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The HBV rainfall–runoff model is used to simulate low flows. The model is calibrated and validated using streamflow observations from periods 1971–2000 and 2001–2010. Two objective functions are used for calibration: Nash–Sutcliffe and log transformed Nash–Sutcliffe. Finally, the models are run using the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data simulated by GCM/RCM models for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. We estimate low flow indices for the simulated time series, including annual minima of 7-day mean river flows and number, severity and duration of low flow events. We quantify the biases of low flow indices by N-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) analysis and Tukey test. Results indicate a large effect of climate models, as well as objective functions, on the low flow indices obtained. A comparison of indices from the two future periods with the reference period 1971–2000 confirms the trends obtained in previous studies, in the form of a projected decrease in the frequency and intensity of low flow events.

Utilization of the Flood Simulation Model for Disaster Management of Local Government

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1161-1175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daisuke Kuribayashi ◽  
◽  
Miho Ohara ◽  
Takahiro Sayama ◽  
Atsuhiko Konja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Mountainous Region ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Insufficient Information ◽  
Flood Simulation ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Management Personnel ◽  
High Flood ◽  
Inundation Model

This paper proposes a method to evaluate the flood risk of each district in a municipality to assist disaster management personnel. The method is specifically for municipalities in a mountainous region where insufficient information is available for practical disaster management. Using this method, we conducted inundation analysis for multiple patterns of rainfall and discharge using a rainfall-runoff-inundation model, and estimated the maximum inundation depth and duration. Based on the estimation, we developed a “flood diagnostic chart” to evaluate district-level flood risk, additionally considering other indicators. Moreover, we located flood hotspots, which are areas requiring extra precautions because of the high flood risk for districts.

scholarly journals Application of a model-based rainfall-runoff database as efficient tool for flood risk management

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 3159-3169 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Brocca ◽  
S. Liersch ◽  
F. Melone ◽  
T. Moramarco ◽  
M. Volk
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Database Management System ◽  
Specific Class ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Operational Forecasts ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract. A framework for a comprehensive synthetic rainfall-runoff database was developed to study catchment response to a variety of rainfall events. The framework supports effective flood risk assessment and management and implements simple approaches. It consists of three flexible components, a rainfall generator, a continuous rainfall-runoff model, and a database management system. The system was developed and tested at two gauged river sections along the upper Tiber River (central Italy). One of the main questions was to investigate how simple such approaches can be applied without impairing the quality of the results. The rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate runoff on the basis of a large number of rainfall events. The resulting rainfall-runoff database stores pre-simulated events classified on the basis of the rainfall amount, initial wetness conditions and initial discharge. The real-time operational forecasts follow an analogue method that does not need new model simulations. However, the forecasts are based on the simulation results available in the rainfall-runoff database (for the specific class to which the forecast belongs). Therefore, the database can be used as an effective tool to assess possible streamflow scenarios assuming different rainfall volumes for the following days. The application to the study site shows that magnitudes of real flood events were appropriately captured by the database. Further work should be dedicated to introduce a component for taking account of the actual temporal distribution of rainfall events into the stochastic rainfall generator and to the use of different rainfall-runoff models to enhance the usability of the proposed procedure.

scholarly journals Hydrological modeling using Effective Rainfall routed by the Muskingum method (ERM)

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1437-1455 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Baymani-Nezhad ◽  
D. Han
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Effective Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Optimization Scheme ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Muskingum Method ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Runoff Model

This paper introduces a new rainfall runoff model called ERM (Effective Rainfall routed by Muskingum method), which has been developed based on the popular IHACRES model. The IHACRES model consists of two main components to transfer rainfall to effective rainfall and then to streamflow. The second component of the IHACRES model is a linear unit hydrograph which has been replaced by the classic and well-known Muskingum method in the ERM model. With the effective rainfall by the first component of the IHACRES model, the Muskingum method is used to estimate the quick flow and slow flow separately. Two different sets of input data (temperature or evapotranspiration, rainfall and observed streamflow) and genetic algorithm (GA) as an optimization scheme have been selected to compare the performance of IHACRES and ERM models in calibration and validation. By testing the models in three different catchments, it is found that the ERM model has better performance over the IHACRES model across all three catchments in both calibration and validation. Further studies are needed to apply the ERM on a wide range of catchments to find its strengths and weaknesses.

scholarly journals Inferring the flood frequency distribution for an ungauged basin using a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Moretti ◽  
A. Montanari
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract. The estimation of the peak river flow for ungauged river sections is a topical issue in applied hydrology. Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff models can be a useful tool to this end, since they are potentially able to simulate the river flow at any location of the watershed drainage network. However, it is not fully clear to what extent these models can provide reliable simulations over a wide range of spatial scales. This issue is investigated here by applying a spatially distributed, continuous simulation rainfall-runoff model to infer the flood frequency distribution of the Riarbero Torrent. This is an ungauged mountain creek located in northern Italy, whose drainage area is 17 km2. The results were checked by using estimates of the peak river flow obtained by applying a classical procedure based on hydrological similarity principles. The analysis highlights interesting perspectives for the application of spatially distributed models to ungauged catchments.

scholarly journals Application of a model-based rainfall-runoff database as efficient tool for flood risk management

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 2089-2115
Author(s):  
L. Brocca ◽  
S. Liersch ◽  
F. Melone ◽  
T. Moramarco ◽  
M. Volk
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Database Management System ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract. A framework for a comprehensive synthetic rainfall-runoff database was developed to study catchment response to a variety of rainfall events. The framework supports effective flood risk assessment and management and implements simple approaches. It consists of three flexible components, a rainfall generator, a continuous rainfall-runoff model, and a database management system. The system has been developed and tested at two gauged river sections along the upper Tiber River (central Italy). One of the main questions was to investigate how simple such approaches can be without impairing the quality of the results. The rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate runoff on the basis of a large number of design rainfall events. The resulting rainfall-runoff database can be used as an effective tool to assess possible streamflow situations assuming different rainfall volumes for the previous and the following days. The application to the study site shows that magnitudes of real flood events were appropriately captured by the database within an uncertainty range. Further work should be dedicated to introducing a component for taking account of the actual temporal distribution of rainfall events into the stochastic rainfall generator.

scholarly journals Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 6007-6030 ◽  
Author(s):  
James C. Bennett ◽  
Quan J. Wang ◽  
David E. Robertson ◽  
Andrew Schepen ◽  
Ming Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Error Model ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Australian Continent ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract. Despite an increasing availability of skilful long-range streamflow forecasts, many water agencies still rely on simple resampled historical inflow sequences (stochastic scenarios) to plan operations over the coming year. We assess a recently developed forecasting system called forecast guided stochastic scenarios (FoGSS) as a skilful alternative to standard stochastic scenarios for the Australian continent. FoGSS uses climate forecasts from a coupled ocean–land–atmosphere prediction system, post-processed with the method of calibration, bridging and merging. Ensemble rainfall forecasts force a monthly rainfall–runoff model, while a staged hydrological error model quantifies and propagates hydrological forecast uncertainty through forecast lead times. FoGSS is able to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts in the form of monthly time series to a 12-month forecast horizon. FoGSS is tested on 63 Australian catchments that cover a wide range of climates, including 21 ephemeral rivers. In all perennial and many ephemeral catchments, FoGSS provides an effective alternative to resampled historical inflow sequences. FoGSS generally produces skilful forecasts at shorter lead times ( <  4 months), and transits to climatology-like forecasts at longer lead times. Forecasts are generally reliable and unbiased. However, FoGSS does not perform well in very dry catchments (catchments that experience zero flows more than half the time in some months), sometimes producing strongly negative forecast skill and poor reliability. We attempt to improve forecasts through the use of (i) ESP rainfall forcings, (ii) different rainfall–runoff models, and (iii) a Bayesian prior to encourage the error model to return climatology forecasts in months when the rainfall–runoff model performs poorly. Of these, the use of the prior offers the clearest benefit in very dry catchments, where it moderates strongly negative forecast skill and reduces bias in some instances. However, the prior does not remedy poor reliability in very dry catchments. Overall, FoGSS is an attractive alternative to historical inflow sequences in all but the driest catchments. We discuss ways in which forecast reliability in very dry catchments could be improved in future work.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Variability of Precipitation and Temperatures on the Efficiency of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Sleziak ◽  
J. Szolgay ◽  
K. Hlavčová ◽  
J. Parajka
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Differential Evolution Algorithm ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
University Of Technology ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Evolution Algorithm ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Runoff Model

AbstractThe main objective of the paper is to understand how the model’s efficiency and the selected climatic indicators are related. The hydrological model applied in this study is a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (the TUW model), which was developed at the Vienna University of Technology. This model was calibrated over three different periods between 1981-2010 in three groups of Austrian catchments (snow, runoff, and soil catchments), which represent a wide range of the hydroclimatic conditions of Austria. The model’s calibration was performed using a differential evolution algorithm (Deoptim). As an objective function, we used a combination of the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and the logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (logNSE). The model’s efficiency was evaluated by Volume error (VE). Subsequently, we evaluated the relationship between the model’s efficiency (VE) and changes in the climatic indicators (precipitation ΔP, air temperature ΔT). The implications of findings are discussed in the conclusion.

scholarly journals A systematic comparison of statistical and hydrological methods for design flood estimation

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (6) ◽  
pp. 1665-1678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenechukwu Okoli ◽  
Maurizio Mazzoleni ◽  
Korbinian Breinl ◽  
Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
High Return ◽  
Flood Estimation ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract We compare statistical and hydrological methods to estimate design floods by proposing a framework that is based on assuming a synthetic scenario considered as ‘truth’ and use it as a benchmark for analysing results. To illustrate the framework, we used probability model selection and model averaging as statistical methods, while continuous simulations made with a simple and relatively complex rainfall–runoff model are used as hydrological methods. The results of our numerical exercise show that design floods estimated by using a simple rainfall–runoff model have small parameter uncertainty and limited errors, even for high return periods. Statistical methods perform better than the linear reservoir model in terms of median errors for high return periods, but their uncertainty (i.e., variance of the error) is larger. Moreover, selecting the best fitting probability distribution is associated with numerous outliers. On the contrary, using multiple probability distributions, regardless of their capability in fitting the data, leads to significantly fewer outliers, while keeping a similar accuracy. Thus, we find that, among the statistical methods, model averaging is a better option than model selection. Our results also show the relevance of the precautionary principle in design flood estimation, and thus help develop general recommendations for practitioners and experts involved in flood risk reduction.

Application of IHACRES rainfall-runoff model to the Wadi Dhuliel arid catchment, Jordan

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyad H. Abushandi ◽  
Broder J. Merkel
Keyword(s):  
Daily Basis ◽  
Calibration Data ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Antecedent Soil Moisture ◽  
North East ◽  
Flood Estimation ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Moisture Conditions ◽  
Parameter Values

With increasing stress on water resources in Jordan, application of rainfall-runoff models can be part of the solution to manage and sustain the water sector. In this paper, the metric conceptual IHACRES model is applied to the Wadi Dhuliel arid catchment, north-east Jordan. Rainfall-runoff data from 19 storm events during 1986 to 1992 have been used in this study. Flood estimation was performed on the basis of daily scales and storm events scales. The model was extended for snowfall in order to cope with such extreme events. Although the best performance of the IHACRES model on a daily basis is poor, the performance on storm events scale showed a good agreement between observed and simulated streamflow. Apart from model parameter values, the principal reasons for IHACRES model success in this region are thought to be based on antecedent soil moisture conditions, rainfall duration and rainfall intensity before and during each storm. The model outputs were likely to be sensitive when the monitored flood was relatively small. The optimum parameter values were influenced by the length of calibration data and event specific changes.

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