scholarly journals WaterWorld: a self-parameterising, physically based model for application in data-poor but problem-rich environments globally

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 748-769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Mulligan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Policy Support ◽  
Heterogeneous Environments ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Management Interventions ◽  
Very High Spatial Resolution ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
The Impact

This paper describes a spatially explicit, physically based global model for water balance. Its key innovations include the fact that it comes with all data required for application, is very high spatial resolution (1 km or 1-hectare resolution) and yet global in extent and is particularly well suited to heterogeneous environments with little or no available data. The model, WaterWorld, is capable of producing a hydrological baseline representing the mean water balance for 1950–2000 and allows users to apply ensemble scenarios for climate change or examine the impact of policy options for land cover change or land management interventions. WaterWorld is focused on policy support, especially in conservation hydrology and development applications and is delivered through a simple web interface, requiring little local capacity for use. The paper discusses the paucity of hydrological data and the urgency of hydrological problems in much of the less-developed world, which reinforce the need for tools like WaterWorld. We discuss the types of hydrological problems that models might contribute to managing and the requirements of models applied to such problems. By way of example, applications of WaterWorld to understanding large-scale patterns of water resources and uncertainty around adaptation to climate change are described.

scholarly journals Large scale integrated hydrological modelling of the impact of climate change on the water balance with DANUBIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Prasch ◽  
T. Marke ◽  
U. Strasser ◽  
W. Mauser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Future climate change will affect the water availability in large areas. In order to derive appropriate adaptation strategies the impact on the water balance has to be determined on a regional scale in a high spatial and temporal resolution. Within the framework of the BRAHMATWINN project the model system DANUBIA, developed within the project GLOWA Danube (GLOWA Danube, 2010; Mauser and Ludwig, 2002), was applied to calculate the water balance components under past and future climate conditions in the large-scale mountain watersheds of the Upper Danube and the Upper Brahmaputra. To use CLM model output data as meteorological drivers DANUBIA is coupled with the scaling tool SCALMET (Marke, 2008). For the determination of the impact of glacier melt water on the water balance the model SURGES (Weber et al., 2008; Prasch, 2010) is integrated into DANUBIA. In this paper we introduce the hydrological model DANUBIA with the tools SCALMET and SURGES. By means of the distributed hydrological time series for the past from 1971 to 2000 the model performance is presented. In order to determine the impact of climate change on the water balance in both catchments, time series from 2011 to 2080 according to the IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2, A1B, B2 and Commitment are analysed. Together with the socioeconomic outcomes (see Chapter 4) the DANUBIA model results provide the basis for the derivation of Integrated Water Resources Management Strategies to adapt to climate change impacts (see Chapter 9 and 10).

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michalis I. Vousdoukas ◽  
Dimitrios Bouziotas ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Laurens M. Bouwer ◽  
Evangelos Voukouvalas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policy-making and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight on the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the Coastal Flood Risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea-level (ESL); (ii) inundation modelling; (iii) the underlying uncertainty in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM); (iv) flood defence information; (v) the assumptions behind the use of depth-damage functions that express vulnerability; and (vi) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties to estimated Expected Annual Damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal and in the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, as well as their absolute/relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large-extent datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.

scholarly journals Perceptions and Adaptations to Climate Change in Southern Mali

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiémoko Soumaoro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Educational Level ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the impact of climate change on market garden production in the extreme south of Mali through the perception and adaptation of market gardeners to climatic phenomena. The study used two models, namely the probit selection and Heckman results models and multinomial logistic regression, based on data collected from producers. A total of 194 producers were surveyed. The results of Heckman's probit model indicate that experience in agriculture and the educational level of the producers are the two main determinants of producers' perception and simultaneous adaptation to climate change. Among these variables agricultural experience is both positively and negatively correlated with perception.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on groundwater point discharge: backflooding of karstic springs (Loiret, France)

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 2235-2262
Author(s):  
E. Joigneaux ◽  
P. Albéric ◽  
H. Pauwels ◽  
C. Pagé ◽  
L. Terray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Groundwater Quality ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Type ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Under certain hydrological conditions it is possible for spring flow in karst systems to be reversed. When this occurs, the resulting invasion by surface water, i.e. the backflooding, represents a serious threat to groundwater quality because the surface water could well be contaminated. Here we examine the possible impact of future climate change on the occurrences of backflooding in a specific karst system, having first established the occurrence of such events in the selected study area over the past 40 yr. It would appear that backflooding has been more frequent since the 1980s, and that it is apparently linked to river flow variability on the pluri-annual scale. The avenue that we adopt here for studying recent and future variations of these events is based on a downscaling algorithm relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation spatial patterns. The large-scale atmospheric circulation is viewed as a set of quasi-stationary and recurrent states, called weather types, and its variability as the transition between them. Based on a set of climate model projections, simulated changes in weather-type occurrence for the end of the century suggests that backflooding events can be expected to decrease in 2075–2099. If such is the case, then the potential risk for groundwater quality in the area will be greatly reduced compared to the current situation. Finally, our results also show the potential interest of the weather-type based downscaling approach for examining the impact of climate change on hydrological systems.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

scholarly journals The Effect of Explicit Convection on Couplings between Rainfall, Humidity, and Ascent over Africa under Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 8315-8337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence S. Jackson ◽  
Declan L. Finney ◽  
Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽  
John H. Marsham ◽  
Douglas J. Parker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Rain Belt ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Mean Climate

AbstractThe Hadley circulation and tropical rain belt are dominant features of African climate. Moist convection provides ascent within the rain belt, but must be parameterized in climate models, limiting predictions. Here, we use a pan-African convection-permitting model (CPM), alongside a parameterized convection model (PCM), to analyze how explicit convection affects the rain belt under climate change. Regarding changes in mean climate, both models project an increase in total column water (TCW), a widespread increase in rainfall, and slowdown of subtropical descent. Regional climate changes are similar for annual mean rainfall but regional changes of ascent typically strengthen less or weaken more in the CPM. Over a land-only meridional transect of the rain belt, the CPM mean rainfall increases less than in the PCM (5% vs 14%) but mean vertical velocity at 500 hPa weakens more (17% vs 10%). These changes mask more fundamental changes in underlying distributions. The decrease in 3-hourly rain frequency and shift from lighter to heavier rainfall are more pronounced in the CPM and accompanied by a shift from weak to strong updrafts with the enhancement of heavy rainfall largely due to these dynamic changes. The CPM has stronger coupling between intense rainfall and higher TCW. This yields a greater increase in rainfall contribution from events with greater TCW, with more rainfall for a given large-scale ascent, and so favors slowing of that ascent. These findings highlight connections between the convective-scale and larger-scale flows and emphasize that limitations of parameterized convection have major implications for planning adaptation to climate change.

The scope for adaptation to climate change: what can we learn from the impact literature?

1998 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard S.J. Tol ◽  
Samuel Fankhauser ◽  
Joel B. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Promote Nature-Based Solutions to adapt the environment to climate change – The LIFE ARTISAN project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre-Antoine Versini ◽  
Daniel Schertzer ◽  
Mathilde Loury
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Public Space ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Relevant Alternatives ◽  
Institutional Contexts ◽  
Research And Education ◽  
The Impact

<p>Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) appear as some relevant alternatives to mitigate the consequences of climate change. For this reason, they are promoted for the implementation of the national plan for adaptation to climate change (PNACC) in France, in line with the Paris Agreement, the strategy of the European Union for adaptation to climate change and the French national strategy for biodiversity.</p><p>Nevertheless, this ambitious goal of democratizing NBS poses some institutional and technical challenges because many obstacles remain to their implementation. Overcoming these shortcomings is the objective of the LIFE integrated project called ARTISAN (Achieving Resiliency by Triggering Implementation of nature-based Solutions for climate Adaptation at a National scale). Coordinated by the French Biodiversity Office (OFB), its consortium regroups several local authorities, technical, research and education institutes.</p><p>For this purpose, ARTISAN is creating a framework promoting the implementation of NBS by improving scientific and technical knowledge about them, then by developing and disseminating relevant tools for project leaders (for the design, sizing, implementation and evaluation of ecosystem performance).</p><p>To demonstrate that NBS can respond to a diversity of climatic, ecological and institutional contexts, 10 pilot sites will be monitored in metropolitan and overseas France. The concerned issues are for example the reduction of urban heat island by the de-waterproofing of the public space, the limitation of the impact of cyclonic episodes on the urbanized coastline overseas by promoting the restoration of the mangrove, and the decrease of agricultural water stress during the low flow period by the hydromorphological restoration of wetlands. These pilot sites will serve to develop, improve and validate operational tools, methods and trainings devoted to practitioners.</p>

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