Setting design inflows to hydrodynamic flood models using a dependence model

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (5) ◽  
pp. 663-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Faulkner ◽  
Caroline Keef ◽  
John Martin
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Hydrodynamic Models ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Flood Peaks ◽  
River Models ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Flood Flow ◽  
Separate Regression

In setting design inflows to hydrodynamic models of flood flow along rivers, there can be a conflict between site-specific hydrological estimates of flow for a given return period and what the river model calculates as it routes flood hydrographs. This paper describes research carried out as part of the Flood Studies Update programme in Ireland, aimed at developing guidance on how to divide up river models and set the magnitude and timing of their inflows so that conditions in the model reach correspond to the expected design flood return period. A model for the joint distribution of flood peaks at pairs of catchments has been developed. The relationship between flood return periods is linked to physical differences between catchments. The model thus allows estimation of the statistical distribution of the flood return period expected at one site during a flood of specified return period elsewhere. A separate regression model predicts the relative timings of flood peaks on pairs of rivers. A summary of the resulting practitioner guidance is given, along with an overview of the testing of the method. The paper concludes with a discussion of the potential for application of the spatial dependence model to other problems in hydrology.

Évaluation des méthodes utilisées pour l'estimation de la crue maximale probable en régions nordiques

1999 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 355-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
I Debs ◽  
D Sparks ◽  
J Rousselle ◽  
S Birikundavyi
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Model Estimation ◽  
Hydrologic Response ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood

Among all existing methods for estimating extreme floods, the probable maximum flood method is the safest, since it is a flood with a probability of excedance that is theoretically zero. In the early 1970s, this flood was calculated as the combination of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and the probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA). In the 1990s, this combination has been considered to be highly improbable. Experts advise against combining two maximized events and, instead, recommend combining one maximized event with a relatively typical extreme event. This article presents a sensitivity analysis on the return period to be used for the typical extreme event to be combined with the maximized event to obtain a "more realistic" PMF. To achieve this, all the steps of a PMF study were reviewed and applied to the Sainte-Marguerite watershed, i.e., calibration and (or) validation of SSARR model, estimation of the PMP, the PMSA, and the temperature sequence. Different flood scenarios have been simulated including accumulated snowfall corresponding to return periods of 50, 100, and 500 years, followed by PMP and PMSA, followed by precipitation corresponding to return periods of 50, 100, and 500 years. It has been noticed that the use of a return period of 50, 100, or 500 years, to represent the unmaximized extreme event, has little effect on the hydrologic response of the basin. Based on the results of this work the use of a return period of 100 years is recommended.Key words: probable maximum flood, probable maximum precipitation, probable maximum snow accumulation, design flood, SSARR model.

scholarly journals Duration-frequency relationships of heavy rainfall in Santa Catarina, Brazil

2012 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 1015-1022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Álvaro José Back ◽  
José Luiz Rocha Oliveira ◽  
Alan Henn
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Santa Catarina ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Smirnov Test

The purpose of this study was to adjust equations that establish relationships between rainfall events with different duration and data from weather stations in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. In this study, the relationships between different duration heavy rainfalls from 13 weather stations of Santa Catarina were analyzed. From series of maximum annual rainfalls, and using the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall for durations between 5 min and 24 h were estimated considering return periods from 2 to 100 years. The data fit to the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at 5 % significance. The coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted to estimate the relationship between rainfall duration t (min) and the return period T (y) in relation to the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 hour and a 10 year return period. Likewise, the coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted based on the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 day and a 10 year return period. The results showed that these relationships are viable to estimate short-duration rainfall events at locations where there are no rainfall records.

scholarly journals Design flood hydrographs from the relationship between flood peak and volume

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 4817-4849 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Mediero ◽  
A. Jiménez-Álvarez ◽  
L. Garrote
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Monte Carlo Experiment ◽  
Skewed Data ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Marginal Distributions ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Flood Hydrograph ◽  
Flood Peaks ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. Hydrological frequency analyses are usually focused on flood peaks. Flood volumes and durations have not been so exhaustively studied although there are many practical cases, like dam design, where the full hydrograph is of interest. A flood hydrograph may be described by a multivariate function of peak, volume and duration. Most standard bivariate and trivariate functions do not produce univariate three-parameter functions as marginal distributions, but three-parameter functions are required to fit highly skewed data as flood peak and volume series. In this paper, relationship between flood peak and hydrograph volume is analysed to overcome this problem. A Monte Carlo experiment was carried out to generate an ensemble of hydrographs that keep the statistical properties of marginal distributions of peaks, volumes and durations. This ensemble can be applied to determine the Design Flood Hydrograph (DFH) for a reservoir, which is not a unique hydrograph, but a curve in the peak-volume space. All hydrographs in that curve have the same return period, understood as the inverse of the probability to exceed a certain water level in the reservoir any given year. The procedure can also be applied to design the length of the spillway crest in terms of risk to exceed a given water level in the reservoir.

scholarly journals Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2699-2708 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Corbella ◽  
D. D. Stretch
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Coastal Erosion ◽  
Design Method ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Erosion Risk ◽  
Storm Characteristics ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. The erosion of a beach depends on various storm characteristics. Ideally, the risk associated with a storm would be described by a single multivariate return period that is also representative of the erosion risk, i.e. a 100 yr multivariate storm return period would cause a 100 yr erosion return period. Unfortunately, a specific probability level may be associated with numerous combinations of storm characteristics. These combinations, despite having the same multivariate probability, may cause very different erosion outcomes. This paper explores this ambiguity problem in the context of copula based multivariate return periods and using a case study at Durban on the east coast of South Africa. Simulations were used to correlate multivariate return periods of historical events to return periods of estimated storm induced erosion volumes. In addition, the relationship of the most-likely design event (Salvadori et al., 2011) to coastal erosion was investigated. It was found that the multivariate return periods for wave height and duration had the highest correlation to erosion return periods. The most-likely design event was found to be an inadequate design method in its current form. We explore the inclusion of conditions based on the physical realizability of wave events and the use of multivariate linear regression to relate storm parameters to erosion computed from a process based model. Establishing a link between storm statistics and erosion consequences can resolve the ambiguity between multivariate storm return periods and associated erosion return periods.

scholarly journals Design flood hydrographs from the relationship between flood peak and volume

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 2495-2505 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Mediero ◽  
A. Jiménez-Álvarez ◽  
L. Garrote
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Monte Carlo Experiment ◽  
Skewed Data ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Marginal Distributions ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Flood Volume ◽  
Flood Hydrograph ◽  
Flood Peaks ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. Hydrological frequency analyses are usually focused on flood peaks. Flood volumes and durations have not been studied as extensively, although there are many practical situations, such as when designing a dam, in which the full hydrograph is of interest. A flood hydrograph may be described by a multivariate function of the peak, volume and duration. Most standard bivariate and trivariate functions do not produce univariate three-parameter functions as marginal distributions, however, three-parameter functions are required to fit highly skewed data, such as flood peak and flood volume series. In this paper, the relationship between flood peak and hydrograph volume is analysed to overcome this problem. A Monte Carlo experiment was conducted to generate an ensemble of hydrographs that maintain the statistical properties of marginal distributions of the peaks, volumes and durations. This ensemble can be applied to determine the Design Flood Hydrograph (DFH) for a reservoir, which is not a unique hydrograph, but rather a curve in the peak-volume space. All hydrographs on that curve have the same return period, which can be understood as the inverse of the probability to exceed a certain water level in the reservoir in any given year. The procedure can also be applied to design the length of the spillway crest in terms of the risk of exceeding a given water level in the reservoir.

Introduction of a stochastic approach in the development of a numerical model for tidal–fluvial interaction analysis and design

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 1027-1038
Author(s):  
F Yazdandoost ◽  
H Shamloo ◽  
A Adib
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Interaction Analysis ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
River System ◽  
Tidal River ◽  
Probability Method ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Analysis And Design ◽  
Joint Probability Method

The interaction of tidal surges and fluvial flows in any river system results in a prevailing combined condition that requires accurate consideration in the reaches of the system not directly influenced by either phenomenon. The combined return period of the system should be deduced based on the combined effects of the two phenomena, which may usually be considered independent of one another. It is therefore imperative to consider both the return periods of the upstream flood condition and the downstream tidal surge condition to determine the combined return period for design flood analysis in tidal river systems. The task of obtaining a suitable and practical combination of the two phenomena encompasses preparation of an interactive scenario most closely and practically verified against the actual design event. In the present research, a combination coefficient has been introduced using the joint probability method. The combination coefficient is used to combine return periods of tidal surges and fluvial floods. A numerical and stochastic model has been developed for hydraulic routing in tidal rivers. The model is applied to the Karun River in Iran and the Severn River in the United Kingdom. The model can generally be utilized for river management and determination of safe bank height for tidal rivers.Key words: combination coefficient, tidal surges, river floods, joint probability method.

scholarly journals Use of several indices of event severity for floods and droughts

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 642-651 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Practical Procedure ◽  
Composite Indices ◽  
Floods And Droughts ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. An examination is made of the true return periods associated with certain types of composite indices for the rareness of events. In particular, return periods are evaluated separately for several different ways of describing how bad an event was, and the composite index, or apparent return period, is defined as the largest of these component return periods. Such apparent return periods give an incorrect indication of how often a larger value for the composite index will occur. Simulations are used to study the relationship between the true and apparent return periods for some simple cases, and an assessment is made of the extent of the error made if the apparent return period is used directly. A simple practical procedure is described for dealing with real datasets without model-fitting, and this is assessed using further simulations. An example is given relating to a possible flood situation where a composite index is constructed as the largest of the return periods of high rainfall-accumulations over a number of durations. Keywords: drought severity index, composite index, event severity, return period

scholarly journals Flexible Characterization: Herstorical Performance in Heritage Sites

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 355-368
Author(s):  
Victoria Bianchi
Keyword(s):  
Identity Performance ◽  
School Of Education ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Heritage Sites ◽  
Women's Narratives ◽  
Specific Performance ◽  
Spatial Exploration ◽  
The University ◽  
Heritage Performance ◽  
The Relationship

This article explores how performance and character can be used to represent the lives of real women in spaces of heritage. It focuses on two different site-specific performances created by the author in the South Ayrshire region of Scotland: CauseWay: The Story of the Alloway Suffragettes and In Hidden Spaces: The Untold Stories of the Women of Rozelle House. These were created with a practice-as-research methodology and aim to offer new models for the use of character in site-specific performance practice. The article explores the variety of methods and techniques used, including verbatim writing, spatial exploration, and Herstorical research, in order to demonstrate the ways in which women’s narratives were represented in a theoretically informed, site-specific manner. Drawing on Phil Smith’s mythogeography, and responding to Laurajane Smith’s work on gender and heritage, the conflicting tensions of identity, performance, and authenticity are drawn together to offer flexible characterization as a new model for the creation of feminist heritage performance. Victoria Bianchi is a theatre-maker and academic in the School of Education at the University of Glasgow. Her work explores the relationship between space, feminism, and identity. She has written and performed work for the National Trust for Scotland, Camden People’s Theatre, and Assembly at Edinburgh, among other institutions.

scholarly journals Embodying the Site: the Here and Now in Site-Specific Dance Performance

2005 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 367-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria Hunter
Keyword(s):  
Creative Process ◽  
Dance Performance ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Spirit Of Place ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The University ◽  
The Relationship

In this article, Victoria Hunter explores the concept of the ‘here and now’ in the creation of site-specific dance performance, in response to Doreen Massey's questioning of the fixity of the concept of the ‘here and now’ during the recent RESCEN seminar on ‘Making Space’, in which she challenged the concept of a singular fixed ‘present’, suggesting instead that we exist in a constant production of ‘here and nows’ akin to ‘being in the moment’. Here the concept is applied to an analysis of the author's recent performance work created as part of a PhD investigation into the relationship between the site and the creative process in site-specific dance performance. In this context the notion of the ‘here and now’ is discussed in relation to the concept of dance embodiment informed by the site and the genius loci, or ‘spirit of place’. Victoria Hunter is a Lecturer in Dance at the University of Leeds, who is currently researching a PhD in site-specific dance performance.

SCORING THE JOURNEY: LISTENING TO CLAUDIA MOLITOR'S SONORAMA

Tempo ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 76 (299) ◽  
pp. 44-56
Author(s):  
Jonathan Packham
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
The Political ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Sharp Focus ◽  
Specific Composition ◽  
Audio Files ◽  
Graphic Score ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractSonorama is a 2015 sonic artwork by Claudia Molitor, consisting of a number of audio files designed for listening on a train journey between London St Pancras and Margate, and a graphic score based on the composer's own ‘reading’ of this journey. This article analyses the relationship between the sonic and the spatial in the work, exploring how Molitor's site-specific composition interacts with its environment on multiple scales. By drawing on the strategy of ‘situated listening’ developed by Gascia Ouzounian, as well as urbanist language introduced by Richard Sennett, this article seeks to elucidate the relationship between a number of ‘nested’ spaces, present across varying realisations, and the political agenda that energises the work. Written in the midst of summer 2015's European refugee crisis, the work brings into sharp focus themes of British exceptionalism, immigration and inclusion.

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