scholarly journals The impacts of climate change on water diversion strategies for a water deficit reservoir

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 872-889 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Xueping Zhu ◽  
Guangtao Fu ◽  
Huicheng Zhou ◽  
Hao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Water Transfer ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Water Diversion ◽  
Optimal Solutions ◽  
Nsga Ii ◽  
Conflicting Objectives ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

This paper presents an assessment framework that analyses the impacts of climate change on the water diversion strategies of a water transfer project in China. A water diversion strategy consists of high and low water levels as well as related diversion flows in four operating periods: pre-flood, flood, post-flood and non-flood periods. The optimal water diversion problem is defined as a multi-objective problem with two conflicting objectives: minimising human and ecological water supply shortages, and solved by the popular non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II). The derived Pareto-optimal solutions are then evaluated using the predicted runoffs based on an ensemble of three general circulation models under three climate scenarios. Results obtained from the study catchment show that intra-annual distribution of future runoff changes. The optimal solutions on the Pareto front have greatly varying performance under a climate scenario. It is critical to reveal the different impacts of climate change on the water shortages over the four operating periods, in particular when an increase of water shortage in one period is masked by a reduction in one or more periods. This study illustrates that the framework can be used to identify resilient water diversion strategies to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change on the operation of a water transfer project.

scholarly journals Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 6569-6614 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Lauri ◽  
H. de Moel ◽  
P. J. Ward ◽  
T. A. Räsänen ◽  
M. Keskinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Cumulative Impacts ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change ◽  
Hydropower Reservoirs

Abstract. The transboundary Mekong River is facing two on-going changes that are estimated to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and the projected climate change is expected to alter the monsoon patterns and increase temperature in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on the hydrology of the Mekong within next 20–30 yr. We downscaled output of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) that were found to perform well in the Mekong region. For the simulation of reservoir operation, we used an optimisation approach to estimate the operation of multiple reservoirs, including both existing and planned hydropower reservoirs. For hydrological assessment, we used a distributed hydrological model, VMod, with a grid resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In terms of climate change's impact to hydrology, we found a high variation in the discharge results depending on which of the GCMs is used as input. The simulated change in discharge at Kratie (Cambodia) between the baseline (1982–1992) and projected time period (2032–2042) ranges from −11% to +15% for the wet season and −10% to +13% for the dry season. Our analysis also shows that the changes in discharge due to planned reservoir operations are clearly larger than those simulated due to climate change: 25–160% higher dry season flows and 5–24% lower flood peaks in Kratie. The projected cumulative impacts follow rather closely the reservoir operation impacts, with an envelope around them induced by the different GCMs. Our results thus indicate that within the coming 20–30 yr, the operation of planned hydropower reservoirs is likely to have a larger impact on the Mekong hydrograph than the impacts of climate change, particularly during the dry season. On the other hand, climate change will increase the uncertainty of the estimated hydropower impacts. Consequently, both dam planners and dam operators should pay better attention to the cumulative impacts of climate change and reservoir operation to the aquatic ecosystems, including the multibillion-dollar Mekong fisheries.

scholarly journals Climate change and agricultural productivity in Brazil: future perspectives

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 581-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliano Assunção ◽  
Flávia Chein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Perspectives ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractThis paper evaluates the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Cross-sectional variation in climate among Brazilian municipalities is used to estimate an equation in which geographical attributes determine agricultural productivity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions based on atmosphere–ocean, coupled with general circulation models (for 2030–2049), are used to simulate the impacts of climate change. Our estimates suggest that global warming under the current technological standards is expected to decrease the agricultural output per hectare in Brazil by 18 per cent, with the effects on municipalities ranging from−40 to+15 per cent.

Implications of climate change for parasitism of animals in the aquatic environment

2001 ◽  
Vol 79 (8) ◽  
pp. 1331-1352 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J Marcogliese
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Biological Effects ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Parasite Fauna ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Aquatic Systems ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Animal Populations

Climate change can occur over evolutionary and ecological time scales as a result of natural and anthropogenic causes. Considerable attention has been focused in recent years on the biological consequences of global warming. However, aside from studies on those deleterious parasites that cause disease in man, little effort has been dedicated to understanding the potential changes in the parasite fauna of animal populations, especially those in aquatic systems. Predictions using General Circulation Models, among others, are examined in terms of their consequences for parasite populations in freshwater and marine ecosystems, concentrating on the temperate and boreal regions of eastern North America. Biological effects due to global warming are not predictable simply in terms of temperature response. It is also essential to explore the effects on aquatic parasites of alterations in host distribution, water levels, eutrophication, stratification, ice cover, acidification, oceanic currents, ultraviolet-light penetration, weather extremes, and human interference. Evaluation of the potential response of parasites of aquatic organisms to climate change illustrates the complexity of host–parasite systems and the difficulty of making accurate predictions for biological systems. Parasites in aquatic systems will respond directly to changes in temperature but also indirectly to changes in other abiotic parameters that are mediated indirectly through changes in the distribution and abundance of their hosts. Local extirpations and introductions may be expected as a result. In the long term, climatic change may influence selection of different life-history traits, affecting parasite transmission and, potentially, virulence.

Simulated impact of climate change on hydrology of multiple watersheds using traditional and recommended snowmelt runoff model methodology

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 665-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emile Elias ◽  
Albert Rango ◽  
Caitriana M. Steele ◽  
John F. Mejia ◽  
Ruben Baca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Application ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Model ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

For more than two decades researchers have utilized the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) to test the impacts of climate change on streamflow of snow-fed systems. SRM developers recommend a parameter shift during simulations of future climate, but this is often omitted. Here we show the impact of this omission on model results. In this study, the hydrological effects of climate change are modeled over three sequential years with typical and recommended SRM methodology. We predict the impacts of climate change on water resources of five subbasins of an arid region. Climate data are downscaled to weather stations. Period change analysis gives temperature and precipitation changes for 55 general circulation models which are then subsampled to produce four future states per basin. Results indicate an increase in temperature between 3.0 and 6.2 °C and an 18% decrease to 26% increase in precipitation. Without modifications to the snow runoff coefficient (cS), mean results across all basins range from a reduction in total volume of 21% to an increase of 4%. Modifications to cS resulted in a 0–10% difference in simulated annual volume. Future application of SRM should include a parameter shift representing the changed climate.

scholarly journals Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 4603-4619 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Lauri ◽  
H. de Moel ◽  
P. J. Ward ◽  
T. A. Räsänen ◽  
M. Keskinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Cumulative Impacts ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change ◽  
Hydropower Reservoirs

Abstract. The transboundary Mekong River is facing two ongoing changes that are expected to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and projected climate change is expected to alter the monsoon patterns and increase temperature in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on the hydrology of the Mekong within next 20–30 yr. We downscaled the output of five general circulation models (GCMs) that were found to perform well in the Mekong region. For the simulation of reservoir operation, we used an optimisation approach to estimate the operation of multiple reservoirs, including both existing and planned hydropower reservoirs. For the hydrological assessment, we used a distributed hydrological model, VMod, with a grid resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In terms of climate change's impact on hydrology, we found a high variation in the discharge results depending on which of the GCMs is used as input. The simulated change in discharge at Kratie (Cambodia) between the baseline (1982–1992) and projected time period (2032–2042) ranges from −11% to +15% for the wet season and −10% to +13% for the dry season. Our analysis also shows that the changes in discharge due to planned reservoir operations are clearly larger than those simulated due to climate change: 25–160% higher dry season flows and 5–24% lower flood peaks in Kratie. The projected cumulative impacts follow rather closely the reservoir operation impacts, with an envelope around them induced by the different GCMs. Our results thus indicate that within the coming 20–30 yr, the operation of planned hydropower reservoirs is likely to have a larger impact on the Mekong hydrograph than the impacts of climate change, particularly during the dry season. On the other hand, climate change will increase the uncertainty of the estimated reservoir operation impacts: our results indicate that even the direction of the flow-related changes induced by climate change is partly unclear. Consequently, both dam planners and dam operators should pay closer attention to the cumulative impacts of climate change and reservoir operation on aquatic ecosystems, including the multibillion-dollar Mekong fisheries.

scholarly journals Application of an Integrated SWAT–MODFLOW Model to Evaluate Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Water Withdrawals on Groundwater–Surface Water Interactions in West-Central Alberta

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 110 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Chunn ◽  
Monireh Faramarzi ◽  
Brian Smerdon ◽  
Daniel Alessi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
High Volume ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

It has become imperative that surface and groundwater resources be managed as a holistic system. This study applies a coupled groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) model, SWAT–MODFLOW, to study the hydrogeological conditions and the potential impacts of climate change and groundwater withdrawals on GW–SW interactions at a regional scale in western Canada. Model components were calibrated and validated using monthly river flow and hydraulic head data for the 1986–2007 period. Downscaled climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs), under the RCP 8.5, for the 2010–2034 period, were incorporated into the calibrated model. The results demonstrated that GW–SW exchange in the upstream areas had the most pronounced fluctuation between the wet and dry months under historical conditions. While climate change was revealed to have a negligible impact in the GW–SW exchange pattern for the 2010–2034 period, the addition of pumping 21 wells at a rate of 4680 m3/d per well to support hypothetical high-volume water use by the energy sector significantly impacted the exchange pattern. The results showed that the total average discharge into the rivers was only slightly reduced from 1294 m3/d to 1174 m3/d; however, localized flowrate differences varied from under 5 m3/d to over 3000 m3/d in 320 of the 405 river cells. The combined potential impact is that intensive groundwater use may have more immediate effects on river flow than those of climate change, which has important implications for water resources management and for energy supply in the future.

scholarly journals The Optimal Multimodel Ensemble of Bias-Corrected CMIP5 Climate Models over China

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 845-863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoli Yang ◽  
Xiaohan Yu ◽  
Yuqian Wang ◽  
Xiaogang He ◽  
Ming Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Hydrological Impacts ◽  
Optimal Ensemble ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractA multimodel ensemble of general circulation models (GCM) is a popular approach to assess hydrological impacts of climate change at local, regional, and global scales. The traditional multimodel ensemble approach has not considered different uncertainties across GCMs, which can be evaluated from the comparisons of simulations against observations. This study developed a comprehensive index to generate an optimal ensemble for two main climate fields (precipitation and temperature) for the studies of hydrological impacts of climate change over China. The index is established on the skill score of each bias-corrected model and different multimodel combinations using the outputs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Results show that the optimal ensemble of the nine selected models accurately captures the characteristics of spatial–temporal variabilities of precipitation and temperature over China. We discussed the uncertainty of subset ensembles of ranking models and optimal ensemble based on historical performance. We found that the optimal subset ensemble of nine models has relative smaller uncertainties compared with other subsets. Our proposed framework to postprocess the multimodel ensemble data has a wide range of applications for climate change assessment and impact studies.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on soybean production under different treatments of field experiments considering the uncertainty of general circulation models

2018 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 63-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamidreza Ahmadzadeh Araji ◽  
Aimrun Wayayok ◽  
Alireza Massah Bavani ◽  
Ebrahim Amiri ◽  
Ahmad Fikri Abdullah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Soybean Production ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Mid-Holocene climate change in Europe: a data-model comparison

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 499-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Brewer ◽  
J. Guiot ◽  
F. Torre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Holocene Climate Change ◽  
Correct Location

Abstract. We present here a comparison between the outputs of 25 General Circulation Models run for the mid-Holocene period (6 ka BP) with a set of palaeoclimate reconstructions based on over 400 fossil pollen sequences distributed across the European continent. Three climate parameters were available (moisture availability, temperature of the coldest month and growing degree days), which were grouped together using cluster analysis to provide regions of homogenous climate change. Each model was then investigated to see if it reproduced 1) similar patterns of change and 2) the correct location of these regions. A fuzzy logic distance was used to compare the output of the model with the data, which allowed uncertainties from both the model and data to be taken into account. The models were compared by the magnitude and direction of climate change within the region as well as the spatial pattern of these changes. The majority of the models are grouped together, suggesting that they are becoming more consistent. A test against a set of zero anomalies (no climate change) shows that, although the models are unable to reproduce the exact patterns of change, they all produce the correct signs of change observed for the mid-Holocene.

Multi Objective Design Optimization of Two Bar Truss Using NSGA II and TOPSIS

2014 ◽  
Vol 984-985 ◽  
pp. 419-424
Author(s):  
P. Sabarinath ◽  
M.R. Thansekhar ◽  
R. Saravanan
Keyword(s):  
Design Optimization ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Optimization Methods ◽  
Optimal Solutions ◽  
Objective Functions ◽  
Nsga Ii ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Total Displacement ◽  
Design Variables ◽  
Conflicting Objectives

Arriving optimal solutions is one of the important tasks in engineering design. Many real-world design optimization problems involve multiple conflicting objectives. The design variables are of continuous or discrete in nature. In general, for solving Multi Objective Optimization methods weight method is preferred. In this method, all the objective functions are converted into a single objective function by assigning suitable weights to each objective functions. The main drawback lies in the selection of proper weights. Recently, evolutionary algorithms are used to find the nondominated optimal solutions called as Pareto optimal front in a single run. In recent years, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) finds increasing applications in solving multi objective problems comprising of conflicting objectives because of low computational requirements, elitism and parameter-less sharing approach. In this work, we propose a methodology which integrates NSGA-II and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for solving a two bar truss problem. NSGA-II searches for the Pareto set where two bar truss is evaluated in terms of minimizing the weight of the truss and minimizing the total displacement of the joint under the given load. Subsequently, TOPSIS selects the best compromise solution.

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