scholarly journals Estimation of the impact of short-term fluctuations in inputs on temporally aggregated outputs of process-oriented models

2003 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 169-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Å. Forsman ◽  
C. Andersson ◽  
A. Grimvall ◽  
M. Hoffmann
Keyword(s):  
Root Zone ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Parametric Models ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Arable Soils ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Process Oriented ◽  
The Impact

Process-oriented models driven by highly resolved meteorological inputs and comprising a short internal time step are sometimes used to predict substance fluxes in air, soil and water over fairly long periods of time. To ascertain whether regression-based input–output analyses in such cases can provide adequate parametric models of the impact of daily and monthly fluctuations in inputs on annual outputs, we studied the SOIL/SOILN model of vertical transport of heat, water and nitrogen through arable soils. Annual leaching of nitrate from the root zone was regarded as the response variable, and regressors were selected from among the set of all linear combinations of daily or monthly values of five different meteorological inputs. We found that, although several of the underlying processes described by the SOIL/SOILN model are non-linear, both ordinary and partial least squares regression (OLS and PLS) identified the subsets of input variables with the strongest influence on the model output, and the dominating time lags between model inputs and outputs. Furthermore, highly resolved explanatory variables were a prerequisite for good performance of linear predictors of temporally aggregated outputs and, to discern the full dynamic behaviour of the model, it was necessary to analyse the response to artificially generated daily meteorological data representing a very large number of different weather conditions. PLS had one advantage over OLS: a smooth pattern in the regression coefficients facilitated physical interpretation of the derived impulse–response weights.

Regional analysis of winter wheat yields under different ecological conditions in Hungary and Croatia

2011 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Pepó ◽  
V. Kovačević
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Crop Protection ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Spring Temperature ◽  
Temperature Regimes ◽  
The Impact

Wheat is the second most important field crop on arable lands in Hungary and Croatia. Yield variations between years are high in both countries. In the short term these variations are mainly the result of the weather parameters specific to individual growing seasons. The aim of this study was to compare variations in winter wheat yields over years in four counties in Hungary and five in Croatia, with the emphasis on the impact of rainfall and mean air temperature regimes. The results showed that rainfall in spring was most decisive for winter wheat yields. The highest winter wheat yields were obtained when the rainfall in the winter half-year ranged from 230–260 mm and the spring rainfall from 180–230 mm. The precipitation in the growing season is much higher in eastern Croatia than in eastern Hungary, so water shortage is a more pronounced environmental problem for wheat in Hungary. This is probably why wheat yields were lower in eastern Hungary than in eastern Croatia in the period tested. Pearson correlation analysis on the yields and meteorological data between 1990 and 2009 revealed a positive correlation between spring rainfall and the yield, and a negative correlation between spring temperature and the yield. The results proved that yields were determined not only by weather conditions, but by many other factors (crop rotation, tillage, fertilization, variety, crop protection, etc.).

scholarly journals Extreme Temperatures and Firm-Level Stock Returns

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 2004
Author(s):  
Jingbin He ◽  
Xinru Ma
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Extreme Temperatures ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Induced Mood ◽  
The Impact

By linking stock returns with weather conditions from 2007 to 2019 in China, we study how firm-level stock returns react to extreme temperatures. Based on a multivariate ordinary least squares regression model with fixed effects, empirical results show that firm-level stock returns decrease with exposure to extreme temperatures. We further explore the heterogeneity in the temperature-return relation to enrich our understanding of the economic mechanism behind it. The impact of extreme temperatures on abnormal stock returns is more pronounced in smaller, younger, more volatile, less profitable firms and firms with more intangible assets. The results indicate that the investor mood likely plays a role in the extreme temperature effect. The impact of extreme temperatures holds after addressing a series of concerns. Overall, our paper provides additional firm-level evidence on the environment-induced mood effect in the stock market.

Streamflow event classification in snowfed rivers in Mediterranean catchments: a process-oriented assessment 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Torralbo ◽  
Rafael Pimentel ◽  
Javier Aparicio ◽  
Javier Herrero ◽  
Cristina Aguilar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Water Fluxes ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Mountain Rivers ◽  
Process Oriented ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oriented Approach

<p>Streamflow in Mediterranean Mountain Areas is highly linked to the storage capacity of snowpacks and its seasonal dynamics, these becoming the only water source,during long periods, particularly during dryer seasons such as spring or summer. This fact makes that to have a better understanding of the significant drivers of change in the hydrological regimen in many mountain rivers requires a process-oriented approach  to assess the different interacting effects and their propagation from atmospheric conditions to runoff and baseflow generation in these areas. Snow dynamics has a direct and major impact on the partitioning of river flow into baseflow, subsurface flow, and runoff. Moreover, the snowpack is extremely affected by the partitioning of precipitation and water outflows (i.e., rainfall vs snowfall and snowmelt vs evaposublimation) that largely modify the riverflow regime with a stronge nonlinearity of their interactions.</p><p>This work presents the characterization of streamflow events in mountain rivers of semiarid areas based on a process-oriented approach from the identification of the major sources/sinks of water in the snow-dominated headwaters of different basins in the Sierra Nevada area, in southern Spain, within an altitudinal range of 1000-3479 m a.s.l. For this, two  catchments with available time series of streamflow are analyzed together with meteorological data and the simulation of water fluxes from the snowpack by the physically-based model SNOWMED, validated and operational in this area (www.uco.es/dfh/snowmed). First, the Cadiar River catchment (area of 0.19 km2 and mean elevation of 2034 m, 20-yr daily flow series), which is highly dominated by snow,was chosen as a representative catchment with direct dominant impacts on streamflow from snow-related water fluxes. Secondly, the contributing catchment area upstream the Órgive gauge station, in the Guadalfeo River(area of 1058 km2 and mean elevation of 1418.5 m, 28-yr daily flow series), which includes the previous case, was analized to assess the snow impacts propagation and lamination by other runoff generation conditions downstream the snow-dominated areas..  </p><p>The resulting streamflow-event series i) shows the variability of the flooding and recession periods in this area on both the seasonal and annual scales due to the variability of the snow regime upstream, and ii) constitutes a key database to assess the impact of climate trends on these rivers and understand how future climate may condition the availability of water during the dry season in the downstream areas. The results not only expand this comprehension of how snowpack-streamflow interacts in semiarid regions, but also provide us with an assessment on predictable events within a short and seasonal forecasting local framework, that can be applied to other Mediterranean mountain rivers after local analyses.</p>

Impact of weather conditions on variability in sunflower yield over years in eastern parts of Croatia and Hungary

2012 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 397-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mijić ◽  
I. Liović ◽  
V. Kovačević ◽  
P. Pepó
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Field Crops ◽  
Oil Crops ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Important Field ◽  
The Impact

Oil crops constitute the second most important field crops worldwide and are important both in Hungary and Croatia. Among the oil crops, sunflower has a significant role in Hungary (∼550,000 ha) and Croatia (∼30,000 ha). The main aim of this study was to compare sunflower yields and their variation over years (2000–2007) in the eastern parts of Hungary and Croatia, with the emphasis on the impact of rainfall and temperature regime, and using a rain factor (RFm) calculated monthly as the quotient of precipitation (mm) and mean air temperatures (°C). The results showed that the year had a different effect on the yield of sunflower in the different counties of eastern Hungary and Croatia, because of their different soil conditions. The results proved that the highest yields of sunflower (2140–2710 kg ha−1) were obtained in years when the rainfall before and during the vegetation period was 110–130 mm and 350–420 mm, which was very similar to the 30-year mean data (82–108 mm and 305–346 mm, respectively). The strongest correlations (positive and negative r values) between meteorological data and sunflower yields were found in counties with unfavourable soil conditions. In counties with better soil fertility the correlation coefficients were smaller, indicating that better soil conditions can compensate for unfavourable year effects (especially temporary shortage of rainfall or unfavourable rainfall distribution).

scholarly journals Impact of Environmental Conditions and Agronomic Practices on the Prevalence of Fusarium Species Associated with Ear- and Stalk Rot in Maize

Pathogens ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annette Pfordt ◽  
Lucia Ramos Romero ◽  
Simon Schiwek ◽  
Petr Karlovsky ◽  
Andreas von Tiedemann
Keyword(s):  
Crop Rotation ◽  
Animal Feed ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Fusarium Species ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Local Species ◽  
Local Range ◽  
The Impact

Fusarium species are common pathogens on maize and reduce the product quality through contamination with mycotoxins thus jeopardizing safety of both animal feed and human food products. Monitoring of Fusarium infected maize ears and stalks was conducted in Germany to determine the range of Fusarium species present in the field and to assess the impact of tillage, crop rotation, and weather conditions on the frequency of Fusarium species. From 2016 till 2018, a total of 387 infected ears and 190 stalk segments from 58 locations in Germany were collected. For each sample location, site-specific agronomic data on tillage and previous crops as well as meteorological data on precipitation, air temperature, and relative humidity during the vegetation period were recorded. The most frequent Fusarium species detected in maize ears were Fusarium graminearum, F. verticillioides and F. temperatum, whereas, F. graminearum, F. equiseti, F. culmorum, and F. temperatum were the species prevailing on maize stalks. Differences in the local species composition were found to be primarily associated with weather variations between the years and the microclimate at the different locations. The results indicate that mean temperature and precipitation in July, during flowering, has the strongest impact on the local range of Fusarium spp. on ears, whereas the incidence of Fusarium species on stalks is mostly affected by weather conditions during September. Ploughing significantly reduced the infection with F. graminearum and F. temperatum, while crop rotation exerted only minor effects.

scholarly journals Influence of temperature and moisture conditions of locality on the yield formation of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.)

2011 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
pp. 99-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Černý ◽  
Alexandra Veverková ◽  
Marek Kovár ◽  
Vladimír Pačuta ◽  
Juliana Molnárová
Keyword(s):  
Helianthus Annuus ◽  
Soil Analysis ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Technological System ◽  
Characteristic Analysis ◽  
Mild Winter ◽  
Moisture Conditions ◽  
Yield Formation ◽  
The Impact

Field polyfactorial experiments were realized on fields of the Agricultural Co-operative in Nitrianska Blatnica in years 2007−2009. Experimental field is located in the maize production area (climatic region: warm; climatic sub region dry; climatic zone: warm, dry with mild winter and long sunshine) in altitude 250 m above sea level, with brown soil. We observed the influence of both temperature and moisture conditions of experimental area on sunflower yield of achenes (conventional, medium-late hybrids: NK Brio, NK Armoni). Preceding crop of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) every experimental year was wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Technological system of sunflower cultivation was realized in accordance with conventional technology of cultivation. The basic fertilization was made by balance method on the base of agrochemical soil analysis for expected yield 3 t.ha−1. The meteorological data were got out from agrometeorological station of the Central Controlling and Testing Institute in Agriculture in Veľké Ripňany. During every experimental year the change of inner energy (ΔU) was evaluated for thermodynamic characteristic analysis (security of the temperature and moisture) and the impact of changes on yield forming with maximal yield (Ymax in 2008) and minimal yield (Ymin in 2009). Achieved value of yield from thermal and precipitation energy introduces concrete energy amount, which is available in given period for concrete height of yield. From the results follow, the sunflower has got critical thermodynamic phase in the period of months from July to August. For the yield formation is requirement, that input power of precipitation prevailed over the thermal during moths July to August. Achieved results confirmed statistically high significant dependence of the yield on weather conditions and for high annual variations in climatic characteristics the consideration is needed about potential changes some agrotechnological measures of technological system of sunflower cultivation.

scholarly journals Effect of ambient temperature on outpatient admission for osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis in a subtropical Chinese city

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Desheng Zhao ◽  
Jian Cheng ◽  
Ping Bao ◽  
Yanwu Zhang ◽  
Fengjuan Liang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Temperature Decrease ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Current findings on the impact of weather conditions on osteoarthritis (OA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are sparse and not conclusive. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between temperature change and OA/RA admission. Methods Daily OA/RA admission and meteorological data from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2017 in Hefei, China, were collected. We quantified the relationship between ambient temperature and OA/RA admission using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). The effect modifications by gender and age were also examined. Results Sudden temperature decrease was significantly associated with RA admission (25th percentile of temperature versus 50th percentile of temperature), with the acute and largest effect at current days lag (RR: 1.063, 95%CI: 1.010–1.118). However, no association between temperature and OA admission was observed. When conducting subgroup analyses by individual characteristics, we found that females and patients aged 41–65 years were more vulnerable to temperature decrease than males, patients aged 0–40 and ≧ 66 years, respectively. Conclusions This study suggested that sudden temperature decrease was a risk factor for increase RA admission. Females and patients aged 41–65 years were particularly vulnerable to the effect of temperature decrease.

scholarly journals Warunki biometeorologiczne Kłodzka i ich wpływ na klimatoterapię i turystykę

2021 ◽  
pp. 9-25
Author(s):  
Bartłomiej Miszuk
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Human Organism ◽  
Important Region ◽  
Spring And Autumn Period ◽  
Tourism Information ◽  
Annual Scale ◽  
The Impact

Biometeorological conditions of Kłodzko and their influence on climatotherapy and tourism The region of Kłodzko belongs to the most important tourist areas in the Lower Silesia. It is also a very important region in the context of health resorts. Because of significant impact of weather conditions on both tourism and health issues, a crucial aspect is to evaluate the influence of weather on human organism and various forms of climatotherapy, tourism and recreation. The goal of the paper was to evaluate the biometeorological conditions of Kłodzko, considering its bio-thermal conditions as well as the usefulness of weather for climatotherapy, tourism and recreation. The basis for the analysis was meteorological data for 1971–2015 from the IMGW-PIB station in Kłodzko. The evaluation of biometeorological conditions included the bio-thermal index of UTCI and the weather suitability index for tourism and recreation (WSI). The WSI is calculated on the basis of the MENEX model which enables an assessment of the human heat balance. The climate tourism information scheme (CTIS) was also considered. It enables an evaluation of recreational potential with a consideration of bio-thermal conditions and the impact of particular meteorological variables. Based on the mentioned methods, a structure of heat stress categories and the annual course of usefulness of weather for climatotherapy, tourism and recreation were presented. The results of the research showed that weather conditions related to no thermal stress prevail on an annual scale. As for the context of the impact of weather on tourism issues, the best conditions are observed in the warm season, especially in the spring and autumn period. The results of the study can be a source of information for tourists and bathers visiting the region. They can also be a basis for increasing the knowledge on biometeorological conditions of the Sudetes.

scholarly journals Weather and Aggressive Behavior among Patients in Psychiatric Hospitals—An Exploratory Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 9121
Author(s):  
Jakub Lickiewicz ◽  
Katarzyna Piotrowicz ◽  
Patricia Paulsen Hughes ◽  
Marta Makara-Studzińska
Keyword(s):  
Aggressive Behavior ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Psychiatric Hospitals ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Mental Illnesses ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Coercive Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Background: The number of meteoropaths, or people negatively affected by weather conditions, is rising dramatically. Meteoropathy is developing rapidly due to ever poorer adaptations of people to changes in weather conditions. Strong weather stimuli may not only exacerbate symptoms in people with diseases of the cardiovascular and respiratory systems but may also induce aggressive behavior. Researchers have shown that patients suffering from mental illnesses are most vulnerable to changes in the weather and postulate a connection between the seasons and aggressive behavior. Methods: The goal of the study was to analyze the relationship between coercive measures and weather factors. The researchers identified what meteorological conditions prevailed on days with an increased number of incidents of aggressive behavior leading to the use of physical coercion towards patients in a psychiatric hospital in Poland. In order to determine the impact of weather conditions on the frequency at which physical coercion measures were used, the hospital’s “coercion sheets” from 1 January 2015 to 31 March 2017 were analyzed. The data were correlated with meteorological data. In order to determine the relationship between the occurrence of specific weather conditions and the number of coercive interventions (N), researchers utilized Spearman’s rank correlation analysis together with two-dimensional scatter diagrams (dependency models), multiple regression, stepwise regression, frequencies, and conditional probability (%). Results: Lower barometric pressure and foehn wind increased aggressive behavior in patients that led to coercive measures. For temperature (positive correlation) and humidity (negative correlation), there was a poor but statistically significant correlation. Conclusions: Monitoring weather conditions might be useful in predicting and preventing aggression by patients who are susceptible to weather changes

Prospects of spring wheat cultivation in the conditions of arid Volga region

2020 ◽  
pp. 28-33
Author(s):  
Valery Genadievich Popov ◽  
Andrey Vladimirovich Panfilov ◽  
Yuriy Vyacheslavovich Bondarenko ◽  
Konstantin Mikhailovich Doronin ◽  
Evgeny Nikolaevih Martynov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Soil Layer ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Volga Region ◽  
Mineral Fertilizers ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Wheat Cultivation ◽  
Forest Belts ◽  
Clear Differentiation ◽  
The Impact

The article analyzes the experience of the impact of the system of forest belts and mineral fertilizers on the yield of spring wheat, including on irrigated lands. Vegetation irrigation is designed to maintain the humidity of the active soil layer from germination to maturation at the lower level of the optimum-70-75%, and in the phases of tubulation-earing - flowering - 75-80% NV. However, due to the large differences in zones and microzones of soil and climate conditions and due to the weather conditions of individual years, wheat irrigation regimes require a clear differentiation. In the Volga region in the dry autumn rainfalls give the norm of 800-1000 m3/ha, and in saline soils – 1000-1300 and 3-4 vegetation irrigation at tillering, phases of booting, earing and grain formation the norm 600-650 m3/ha. the impact of the system of forest belts, mineral fertilizers on the yield of spring wheat is closely tied to the formation of microclimate at different distances from forest edges.

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