scholarly journals Analysis Of The Impact Of Wheat Farmers Decisions Under Risk In Egypt

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (12) ◽  
pp. 2396-2409
Keyword(s):  
Decisions Under Risk ◽  
The Impact

On the impact of experience on probability weighting in decisions under risk.

Decision ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doron Cohen ◽  
Ori Plonsky ◽  
Ido Erev
Keyword(s):  
Probability Weighting ◽  
Decisions Under Risk ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals MAOA-L carriers are better at making optimal financial decisions under risk

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1714) ◽  
pp. 2053-2059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cary Frydman ◽  
Colin Camerer ◽  
Peter Bossaerts ◽  
Antonio Rangel
Keyword(s):  
Choice Model ◽  
Monoamine Oxidase A ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Dopamine D4 Receptor ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Decisions Under Risk ◽  
Genes Encoding ◽  
D4 Receptor ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Brain

Genes can affect behaviour towards risks through at least two distinct neurocomputational mechanisms: they may affect the value assigned to different risky options, or they may affect the way in which the brain adjudicates between options based on their value. We combined methods from neuroeconomics and behavioural genetics to investigate the impact that the genes encoding for monoamine oxidase-A (MAOA), the serotonin transporter (5-HTT) and the dopamine D4 receptor (DRD4) have on these two computations. Consistent with previous literature, we found that carriers of the MAOA-L polymorphism were more likely to take financial risks. Our computational choice model, rooted in established decision theory, showed that MAOA-L carriers exhibited such behaviour because they are able to make better financial decisions under risk, and not because they are more impulsive. In contrast, we found no behavioural or computational differences among the 5-HTT and DRD4 polymorphisms.

scholarly journals How Goals Erase Framing Effects in Risky Decision Making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Marbacher ◽  
Jana Bianca Jarecki ◽  
Jörg Rieskamp
Keyword(s):  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Framing Effects ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Decisions Under Risk ◽  
Dynamic Version ◽  
Goal Distance ◽  
Stock Investments ◽  
Gains And Losses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risky Decisions

Evidence has shown that goals systematically change risk preferences in repeated decisions under risk. For instance, decision makers could aim to reach goals in a limited time, such as “making at least $1000 with ten stock investments within a year.” We test whether goal-based risky decisions differ when facing gains as compared to losses. More specifically, we examine the impact of outcome framing (gains vs. losses) and state framing (positive vs. negative resource states) on goal-based risky decisions. Our results (N=100) reveal no framing effects; instead, we find a consistently strong effect of the goal on risk preferences independent of framing. Computational modeling showed that a dynamic version of prospect theory, with a goal-dependent reference point, described 87% of participants best. This model treats outcomes as gains and losses depending on the state-goal distance. Our results show how goals can erase standard framing effects observed in risky choices without goals.

scholarly journals Experience and rationality under risk: re-examining the impact of sampling experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1100-1128
Author(s):  
Ilke Aydogan ◽  
Yu Gao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Decision Models ◽  
Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽  
Probability Weighting ◽  
Sampling Without Replacement ◽  
Decisions Under Risk ◽  
Lack Of Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Small Probabilities

Abstract A recent strand of the literature on decision-making under uncertainty has pointed to an intriguing behavioral gap between decisions made from description and decisions made from experience. This study reinvestigates this description-experience gap to understand the impact that sampling experience has on decisions under risk. Our study adopts a complete sampling paradigm to address the lack of control over experienced probabilities by requiring complete sampling without replacement. We also address the roles of utilities and ambiguity, which are central in most current decision models in economics. Thus, our experiment identifies the deviations from expected utility due to over- (or under-) weighting of probabilities. Our results confirm the existence of the behavioral gap, but they provide no evidence for the underweighting of small probabilities within the complete sampling treatment. We find that sampling experience attenuates rather than reverses the inverse S-shaped probability weighting under risk.

The Impact of Enhancements to Weather-forecasting Services on Agricultural Investment Behavior: A Field Experiment in Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Hsuan Lin ◽  
Hen-I Lin ◽  
Fang-I Wen ◽  
Sheng-Jang Sheu
Keyword(s):  
Field Experiment ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Crop Insurance ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Decisions Under Risk ◽  
The Impact

AbstractA better understanding of farmers’ investment strategies associated with climate and weather is crucial to protecting farming and other climate-exposed sectors from extreme hydro-meteorological events. Accordingly, this study employed a field experiment to investigate the investment decisions under risk and uncertainty by 213 farmers from four regions of Taiwan. Each was asked 30 questions that paired “no investment”, “investment with crop insurance”, “investment with subsidized crop insurance”, and “investment” as possible responses. By providing imperfect information and various probabilities of certain states occurring, the experimental scenarios mimicked various types of weather-forecasting services. As well as their socioeconomic characteristics, the background information we collected about the participants included their experiences of natural disasters and what actions they take to protect their crops from weather damage. The sampled farmers became more conservative in their decision-making as the weather forecasts they received became more precise, except when increases in risk were associated with high returns. The provision of insurance subsidies also had a conservatizing effect. However, considerable variation in investment preferences was observed according to the farmers’ crop types. For those seeking to create comprehensive policies aimed at helping the agricultural sector deal with the costs of damage from extreme events, this study has important implications. This approach could be extended to research on the perceptions of decision-makers in other climate-exposed sectors such as the construction industry.

Formation of Lunar Craters and Bright Rays as a Result of Meteorite Impacts

1962 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 415-418
Author(s):  
K. P. Stanyukovich ◽  
V. A. Bronshten
Keyword(s):  
Explosive Charge ◽  
The Moon ◽  
Meteorite Impacts ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Lunar Craters ◽  
The Impact

The phenomena accompanying the impact of large meteorites on the surface of the Moon or of the Earth can be examined on the basis of the theory of explosive phenomena if we assume that, instead of an exploding meteorite moving inside the rock, we have an explosive charge (equivalent in energy), situated at a certain distance under the surface.

The Geosciences Applied to Lunar Exploration

1962 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 169-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Green
Keyword(s):  
Lunar Surface ◽  
Probable Mechanism ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Lunar Exploration ◽  
Geological Model ◽  
Apply Geophysics ◽  
Surface Features ◽  
The Impact

The term geo-sciences has been used here to include the disciplines geology, geophysics and geochemistry. However, in order to apply geophysics and geochemistry effectively one must begin with a geological model. Therefore, the science of geology should be used as the basis for lunar exploration. From an astronomical point of view, a lunar terrain heavily impacted with meteors appears the more reasonable; although from a geological standpoint, volcanism seems the more probable mechanism. A surface liberally marked with volcanic features has been advocated by such geologists as Bülow, Dana, Suess, von Wolff, Shaler, Spurr, and Kuno. In this paper, both the impact and volcanic hypotheses are considered in the application of the geo-sciences to manned lunar exploration. However, more emphasis is placed on the volcanic, or more correctly the defluidization, hypothesis to account for lunar surface features.

Asteroid and Comet Impact Speeds upon Mars: Significance for Panspermia and the Supply of Organics

1997 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 197-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Steel
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Regions Of Interest ◽  
Significant Fraction ◽  
Organic Chemicals ◽  
Impact Speed ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWhilst lithopanspermia depends upon massive impacts occurring at a speed above some limit, the intact delivery of organic chemicals or other volatiles to a planet requires the impact speed to be below some other limit such that a significant fraction of that material escapes destruction. Thus the two opposite ends of the impact speed distributions are the regions of interest in the bioastronomical context, whereas much modelling work on impacts delivers, or makes use of, only the mean speed. Here the probability distributions of impact speeds upon Mars are calculated for (i) the orbital distribution of known asteroids; and (ii) the expected distribution of near-parabolic cometary orbits. It is found that cometary impacts are far more likely to eject rocks from Mars (over 99 percent of the cometary impacts are at speeds above 20 km/sec, but at most 5 percent of the asteroidal impacts); paradoxically, the objects impacting at speeds low enough to make organic/volatile survival possible (the asteroids) are those which are depleted in such species.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document