scholarly journals Climatological Reproducibility Evaluation and Future Climate Projection of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Baiu Season Using a High-Resolution Non-Hydrostatic RCM in Comparison with an AGCM

2008 ◽  
Vol 86 (6) ◽  
pp. 951-967 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasutaka WAKAZUKI ◽  
Masaomi NAKAMURA ◽  
Sachie KANADA ◽  
Chiashi MUROI
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projection ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Future Climate Projection ◽  
Precipitation Events

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

Applying a storyline approach to explore the impact of future Atmospheric River induced floods in western Norway 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trine Jahr Hegdahl ◽  
Kolbjørn Engeland ◽  
Malte Müller ◽  
Jana Sillman
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Western Norway ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
The Future ◽  
Climate Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Atmospheric rivers (AR) are responsible for the most extreme precipitation events causing devastating landslides and floods in western Norway. In this study an event-based storyline approach is used to compare the flood impact of extreme AR events in a warmer climate to those of the current climate.  The four most extreme precipitation events were selected from 30 years of present and future climate simulations from the high-resolution global climate model, the EC-Earth model. For each of the four events, EC-Earth was rerun creating 10 perturbed realizations. A regional convective permitting weather prediction model, AROME-MetCoOp, was used to further downscale the events, and thereafter the operational Norwegian flood-forecasting model was used to estimate the flood levels for 37 catchments in western Norway. The magnitude and the spatial impact were analyzed, and different hydrological initial conditions, which affect the total flooding, were analyzed.</p><p>The results show that more catchments were affected with larger floods in the future climate events compared to the current climate events. In addition, the combination of multiple realizations of meteorological forcing and different hydrological initial conditions, for example soil saturation and snow storage, were important for the estimation of the maximum flood level. The meteorological forcing had the highest overall effect on flood magnitude; however, varying and depending on event and catchment. Finally, operational flood warning levels were used to visualize the difference between future and current climate flood events. Applying a setup similar to the one used operationally and relating the future events to known current events associated with ARs, enables a common reference and ease communication with end-users and decision makers.</p>

scholarly journals Large-Scale Predictors for Extreme Hourly Precipitation Events in Convection-Permitting Climate Simulations

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2115-2131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven C. Chan ◽  
Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽  
Nigel Roberts ◽  
Stephen Blenkinsop ◽  
Hayley J. Fowler
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Hourly Precipitation ◽  
Vertical Stability ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Precipitation Events

Midlatitude extreme precipitation events are caused by well-understood meteorological drivers, such as vertical instability and low pressure systems. In principle, dynamical weather and climate models behave in the same way, although perhaps with the sensitivities to the drivers varying between models. Unlike parameterized convection models (PCMs), convection-permitting models (CPMs) are able to realistically capture subdaily extreme precipitation. CPMs are computationally expensive; being able to diagnose the occurrence of subdaily extreme precipitation from large-scale drivers, with sufficient skill, would allow effective targeting of CPM downscaling simulations. Here the regression relationships are quantified between the occurrence of extreme hourly precipitation events and vertical stability and circulation predictors in southern United Kingdom 1.5-km CPM and 12-km PCM present- and future-climate simulations. Overall, the large-scale predictors demonstrate skill in predicting the occurrence of extreme hourly events in both the 1.5- and 12-km simulations. For the present-climate simulations, extreme occurrences in the 12-km model are less sensitive to vertical stability than in the 1.5-km model, consistent with understanding the limitations of cumulus parameterization. In the future-climate simulations, the regression relationship is more similar between the two models, which may be understood from changes to the large-scale circulation patterns and land surface climate. Overall, regression analysis offers a promising avenue for targeting CPM simulations. The authors also outline which events would be missed by adopting such a targeted approach.

scholarly journals Assessing the Use of Satellite-Based Estimates and High-Resolution Precipitation Datasets for the Study of Extreme Precipitation Events over the Iberian Peninsula

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo Hénin ◽  
Margarida Liberato ◽  
Alexandre Ramos ◽  
Célia Gouveia
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

An assessment of daily accumulated precipitation during extreme precipitation events (EPEs) occurring over the period 2000–2008 in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is presented. Different sources for precipitation data, namely ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), both in near-real-time and post-real-time releases, are compared with the best ground-based high-resolution (0.2° × 0.2°) gridded precipitation dataset available for the IP (IB02). In this study, accuracy metrics are analysed for different quartiles of daily precipitation amounts, and additional insights are provided for a subset of EPEs extracted from an objective ranking of extreme precipitation during the extended winter period (October to March) over the IP. Results show that both reanalysis and multi-satellite datasets overestimate (underestimate) daily precipitation sums for the least (most) extreme events over the IP. In addition, it is shown that the TRMM TMPA precipitation estimates from the near-real-time product may be considered for EPEs assessment over these latitudes. Finally, it is found that the new ERA5 reanalysis accounts for large improvements over ERA-Interim and it also outperforms the satellite-based datasets.

scholarly journals Trend Analyses of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China Using a High-Resolution Precipitation Product

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiao Fan ◽  
Wenchao Sun ◽  
Yong Zhao ◽  
Baolin Xue ◽  
Depeng Zuo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Lower Reach ◽  
Precipitation Product ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Yarlung Zangbo River ◽  
Possible Cause ◽  
Precipitation Events

The Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB) is an important transboundary river basin in Tibet, China with south Asian countries. Changes in precipitation are important driving factors of river flow changes. Extreme Precipitation Events (EPE), in particular, have serious impacts on human life and sustainable development. The objective of this study is to explore the temporal changes and the spatial distribution of EPE over the YZRB in recent decades using a precipitation product with a 5 km spatial resolution and the Mann–Kendall nonparametric statistical test method. A more thorough understanding of the spatial heterogeneity in precipitation was expected from using this high resolution dataset. At both basin and pixel scale, both annual precipitation amounts and number of rain days had significant upward trends, indicating that the increase in the number of rain days is one possible cause of the annual precipitation amounts increases. The annual precipitation and number of rain days increased significantly in 50.8% and 75.8% of the basin area, respectively. The areas showing upward trends for the two indexes mostly overlapped, supporting the hypothesis that the increasing number of rain days is one possible cause of the increases in annual precipitation in these areas. General precipitation intensity and EPE intensity increased in the Lhasa regions and in the southern part of the lower-reach region. However, the intensity of general precipitation and EPE decreased in the Nyangqu River Basin. A total of 43.0% of the area in the YZRB exhibits significant upward trends in EPE frequency. The contributions of EPE to total rainfall increase significantly in the Lhasa and Shannan regions. Overall, it was shown that the risk of disasters from EPE in the YZRB increases in the eastern middle-reach region and southern lower-reach region.

scholarly journals An Event-Based Approach to Explore Selected Present and Future Atmospheric River–Induced Floods in Western Norway

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 2003-2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trine J. Hegdahl ◽  
Kolbjørn Engeland ◽  
Malte Müller ◽  
Jana Sillmann
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
Snow Storage ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Western Norway ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Precipitation Events

AbstractThe aim of this study is to investigate extreme precipitation events caused by atmospheric rivers and compare their flood impact in a warmer climate to current climate using an event-based storyline approach. The study was set up by selecting four high-precipitation events from 30 years of present and future climate simulations of the high-resolution global climate model EC-Earth. The two most extreme precipitation events within the selection area for the present and future climate were identified, and EC-Earth was rerun creating 10 perturbed realizations for each event. All realizations were further downscaled with the regional weather prediction model, AROME-MetCoOp. The events were thereafter used as input to the operational Norwegian flood-forecasting model for 37 selected catchments in western Norway, and the magnitude and the spatial pattern of floods were analyzed. The role of the hydrological initial conditions, which are important for the total flooding, were analyzed with a special emphasis on snow and soil moisture excess. The results show that the selected future extreme precipitation events affected more catchments with larger floods, compared to the events from present climate. In addition, multiple realizations of the meteorological forcing and four different hydrological initial conditions, for example, soil saturation and snow storage, were important for the estimation of the maximum flood level. The meteorological forcing (e.g., the internal variability/perturbed output) accounts for the highest contribution to the spread in flood magnitude; however, for some events and catchments the hydrological initial conditions affected the magnitudes of floods more than the meteorological forcing.

Differences in representation of extreme precipitation events in two high resolution models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma D. Thomassen ◽  
Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽  
Hjalte J. D. Sørup ◽  
Steven C. Chan ◽  
Peter L. Langen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
High Resolution Models ◽  
Precipitation Events

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate changes for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Model Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed over high resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, the Lez and the Aude located in France, and the Muga, located in northeastern Spain and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over past period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over past period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the last part of the 21th century.

scholarly journals Falling Trend of Western Disturbances in Future Climate Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (16) ◽  
pp. 5037-5051 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kieran M. R. Hunt ◽  
Andrew G. Turner ◽  
Len C. Shaffrey
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Northern India ◽  
Western Disturbances ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale cyclonic weather systems advected over Pakistan and northern India by the subtropical westerly jet stream. There, they are responsible for most of the winter precipitation, which is crucial for agriculture of the rabi crop as well for as more extreme precipitation events, which can lead to local flooding and avalanches. Despite their importance, there has not yet been an attempt to objectively determine the fate of WDs in future climate GCMs. Here, a tracking algorithm is used to build up a catalog of WDs in both CMIP5 historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments of the future. It is shown that in business-as-usual (RCP8.5) future climate simulations, WD frequency falls by around 15% by the end of the twenty-first century, with the largest relative changes coming in pre- and postmonsoon months. Meanwhile, mean WD intensity will decrease, with central vorticity expected to become less cyclonic by about 12% over the same period. Changes in WD frequency are attributed to the projected widening and weakening of the winter subtropical jet as well as decreasing meridional wind shear and midtropospheric baroclinic vorticity tendency, which also explain the changes in intensity. The impact of these changes on regional precipitation is explored. The decline in WD frequency and intensity will cause a decrease in mean winter rainfall over Pakistan and northern India amounting to about 15% of the mean—subject to the ability of the models to represent the responsible processes. The effect on extreme precipitation events, however, remains unclear.

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