scholarly journals Uncertainty of Future Precipitation Change Due to Global Warming Associated with Sea Surface Temperature Change in the Tropical Pacific

2011 ◽  
Vol 89 (5) ◽  
pp. 539-552 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomoaki OSE ◽  
Osamu ARAKAWA
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

scholarly journals A Simple Analytical Model for Understanding the Formation of Sea Surface Temperature Patterns under Global Warming*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (22) ◽  
pp. 8413-8421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Tim Li
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract How sea surface temperature (SST) changes under global warming is critical for future climate projection because SST change affects atmospheric circulation and rainfall. Robust features derived from 17 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) include a much greater warming in high latitudes than in the tropics, an El Niño–like warming over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, and a dipole pattern in the Indian Ocean. However, the physical mechanism responsible for formation of such warming patterns remains open. A simple theoretical model is constructed to reveal the cause of the future warming patterns. The result shows that a much greater polar, rather than tropical, warming depends primarily on present-day mean SST and surface latent heat flux fields, and atmospheric longwave radiation feedback associated with cloud change further enhances this warming contrast. In the tropics, an El Niño–like warming over the Pacific and Atlantic arises from a similar process, while cloud feedback resulting from different cloud regimes between east and west ocean basins also plays a role. A dipole warming over the equatorial Indian Ocean is a response to weakened Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific.

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