scholarly journals On the Convergence Rate of Bonus-Malus Systems

1992 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heikki Bonsdorff
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Convergence Rate ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Limit Probability ◽  
Step Transition

AbstractUnder certain conditions, a Bonus-Malus system can be interpreted as a Markov chain whose n-step transition probabilities converge to a limit probability distribution. In this paper, the rate of the convergence is studied by means of the eigenvalues of the transition probability matrix of the Markov chain.

Some explicit results for correlated random walks

1989 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 757-766 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ram Lal ◽  
U. Narayan Bhat
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
State Space ◽  
Equilibrium Distribution ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Correlated Random Walks ◽  
Finite State ◽  
Direction Of Movement ◽  
Step Transition

In a correlated random walk (CRW) the probabilities of movement in the positive and negative direction are given by the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. The walk can be represented as a Markov chain if we use a bivariate state space, with the location of the particle and the direction of movement as the two variables. In this paper we derive explicit results for the following characteristics of the walk directly from its transition probability matrix: (i) n -step transition probabilities for the unrestricted CRW, (ii) equilibrium distribution for the CRW restricted on one side, and (iii) equilibrium distribution and first-passage characteristics for the CRW restricted on both sides (i.e., with finite state space).

Some explicit results for correlated random walks

1989 ◽  
Vol 26 (04) ◽  
pp. 757-766 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ram Lal ◽  
U. Narayan Bhat
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
State Space ◽  
Equilibrium Distribution ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Correlated Random Walks ◽  
Finite State ◽  
Direction Of Movement ◽  
Step Transition

In a correlated random walk (CRW) the probabilities of movement in the positive and negative direction are given by the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. The walk can be represented as a Markov chain if we use a bivariate state space, with the location of the particle and the direction of movement as the two variables. In this paper we derive explicit results for the following characteristics of the walk directly from its transition probability matrix: (i) n -step transition probabilities for the unrestricted CRW, (ii) equilibrium distribution for the CRW restricted on one side, and (iii) equilibrium distribution and first-passage characteristics for the CRW restricted on both sides (i.e., with finite state space).

The censored Markov chain and the best augmentation

1996 ◽  
Vol 33 (03) ◽  
pp. 623-629 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Quennel Zhao ◽  
Danielle Liu
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Stationary Probability ◽  
Stationary Probability Distribution ◽  
The Best Approximation ◽  
Finite Matrix ◽  
Countable State ◽  
Stationary Probabilities

Computationally, when we solve for the stationary probabilities for a countable-state Markov chain, the transition probability matrix of the Markov chain has to be truncated, in some way, into a finite matrix. Different augmentation methods might be valid such that the stationary probability distribution for the truncated Markov chain approaches that for the countable Markov chain as the truncation size gets large. In this paper, we prove that the censored (watched) Markov chain provides the best approximation in the sense that, for a given truncation size, the sum of errors is the minimum and show, by examples, that the method of augmenting the last column only is not always the best.

On the probability generating function of the sum of Markov Bernoulli random variables

1982 ◽  
Vol 19 (A) ◽  
pp. 321-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Gani
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Generating Function ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Probability Generating Function ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Direct Proof ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Bernoulli Random Variables ◽  
Limit Probability

A direct proof of the expression for the limit probability generating function (p.g.f.) of the sum of Markov Bernoulli random variables is outlined. This depends on the larger eigenvalue of the transition probability matrix of their Markov chain.

scholarly journals Stochastic LU factorizations, Darboux transformations and urn models

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 862-886 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Alberto Grünbaum ◽  
Manuel D. de la Iglesia
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Random Walks ◽  
Free Parameter ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Urn Models ◽  
Triangular Matrices ◽  
New Family ◽  
Step Transition

Abstract We consider upper‒lower (UL) (and lower‒upper (LU)) factorizations of the one-step transition probability matrix of a random walk with the state space of nonnegative integers, with the condition that both upper and lower triangular matrices in the factorization are also stochastic matrices. We provide conditions on the free parameter of the UL factorization in terms of certain continued fractions such that this stochastic factorization is possible. By inverting the order of the factors (also known as a Darboux transformation) we obtain a new family of random walks where it is possible to state the spectral measures in terms of a Geronimus transformation. We repeat this for the LU factorization but without a free parameter. Finally, we apply our results in two examples; the random walk with constant transition probabilities, and the random walk generated by the Jacobi orthogonal polynomials. In both situations we obtain urn models associated with all the random walks in question.

A Comparison of Alternative Approaches for the Synthetic Generation of a Wind Speed Time Series

1991 ◽  
Vol 113 (4) ◽  
pp. 280-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. C. Kaminsky ◽  
R. H. Kirchhoff ◽  
C. Y. Syu ◽  
J. F. Manwell
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
Embedded Markov Chain ◽  
One Step ◽  
Alternative Approaches

In this paper, alternative approaches for synthetically generating a wind speed time series are discussed. These approaches include: (1) the use of independent values from a specific probability distribution; (2) the use of an algorithm based on the statistical behavior of a one-step Markov chain; (3) the use of an algorithm based on the behavior of a transition probability matrix that describes the next wind speed value statistically as a function of the current wind speed value and the previous wind speed value; (4) the use of Box-Jenkins models; (5) the use of the Shinozuka algorithm; and (6) the use of an embedded Markov chain. The ability of each approach to capture the statistical properties of the desired wind speed time series is discussed. In this context the statistical properties of interest are the probability distribution of the wind speed values, the autocorrelation function of the wind speed values, and the spectral density of the wind speed values.

The square root law in the embedding detection problem for Markov chains with unknown matrix of transition probabilities

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-68
Author(s):  
Artem V. Volgin
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chains ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Classical Model ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Square Root ◽  
Detection Problem ◽  
Asymptotic Growth

Abstract We consider the classical model of embeddings in a simple binary Markov chain with unknown transition probability matrix. We obtain conditions on the asymptotic growth of lengths of the original and embedded sequences sufficient for the consistency of the proposed statistical embedding detection test.

Finite dams with inputs forming a Markov chain

1970 ◽  
Vol 7 (02) ◽  
pp. 291-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.S. Ali Khan
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Generating Functions ◽  
State Transition ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Probability Generating Functions ◽  
State Transition Probability ◽  
Finite Dam

This paper considers a finite dam fed by inputs forming a Markov chain. Relations for the probability of first emptiness before overflow and with overflow are obtained and their probability generating functions are derived; expressions are obtained in the case of a three state transition probability matrix. An equation for the probability that the dam ever dries up before overflow is derived and it is shown that the ratio of these probabilities is independent of the size of the dam. A time dependent formula for the probability distribution of the dam content is also obtained.

Finite dams with inputs forming a Markov chain

1970 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 291-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.S. Ali Khan
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Generating Functions ◽  
State Transition ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Probability Generating Functions ◽  
State Transition Probability ◽  
Finite Dam

This paper considers a finite dam fed by inputs forming a Markov chain. Relations for the probability of first emptiness before overflow and with overflow are obtained and their probability generating functions are derived; expressions are obtained in the case of a three state transition probability matrix. An equation for the probability that the dam ever dries up before overflow is derived and it is shown that the ratio of these probabilities is independent of the size of the dam. A time dependent formula for the probability distribution of the dam content is also obtained.

On the probability generating function of the sum of Markov Bernoulli random variables

1982 ◽  
Vol 19 (A) ◽  
pp. 321-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Gani
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Generating Function ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Probability Generating Function ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Direct Proof ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Bernoulli Random Variables ◽  
Limit Probability

A direct proof of the expression for the limit probability generating function (p.g.f.) of the sum of Markov Bernoulli random variables is outlined. This depends on the larger eigenvalue of the transition probability matrix of their Markov chain.

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