scholarly journals Disease biogeography: spatial and temporal analyses of infectious disease burden at the country-level scale provides new insights and challenges

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Heard
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Scale ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Analyses

scholarly journals Analysis of research intensity on infectious disease by disease burden reveals which infectious diseases are neglected by researchers

2018 ◽  
Vol 116 (2) ◽  
pp. 478-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuki Furuse
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Neglected Tropical Diseases ◽  
Research Activity ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Considerable Morbidity ◽  
Immunodeficiency Syndrome ◽  
Research Intensity

Infectious diseases are associated with considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although human, financial, substantial, and time resources are limited, it is unknown whether such resources are used effectively in research to manage diseases. The correlation between the disability-adjusted life years to represent disease burden and number of publications as a surrogate for research activity was investigated to measure burden-adjusted research intensity for 52 infectious diseases at global and country levels. There was significantly low research intensity for paratyphoid fever and high intensity for influenza, HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, hepatitis C, and tuberculosis considering their disease burden. We identified the infectious diseases that have received the most attention from researchers and those that have been relatively disregarded. Interestingly, not all so-called neglected tropical diseases were subject to low burden-adjusted research intensity. Analysis of the intensity of infectious disease research at a country level revealed characteristic patterns. These findings provided a basis for further discussion of the more appropriate allocation of resources for research into infectious diseases.

Country-Level Aging and Disease Burden

2011 ◽  
pp. 41-55
Author(s):  
Michael Maurice Engelgau ◽  
Sameh El-Saharty ◽  
Preeti Kudesia ◽  
Vikram Rajan ◽  
Sandra Rosenhouse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Burden ◽  
Country Level

scholarly journals Adequacy of SEIR models when epidemics have spatial structure: Ebola in Sierra Leone

2019 ◽  
Vol 374 (1775) ◽  
pp. 20180282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne M. Getz ◽  
Richard Salter ◽  
Whitney Mgbara
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Transmission Function ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
District Level ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Populations At Risk

Dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Removed) compartmental models provide a tool for predicting the size and duration of both unfettered and managed outbreaks—the latter in the context of interventions such as case detection, patient isolation, vaccination and treatment. The reliability of this tool depends on the validity of key assumptions that include homogeneity of individuals and spatio-temporal homogeneity. Although the SEIR compartmental framework can easily be extended to include demographic (e.g. age) and additional disease (e.g. healthcare workers) classes, dependence of transmission rates on time, and metapopulation structure, fitting such extended models is hampered by both a proliferation of free parameters and insufficient or inappropriate data. This raises the question of how effective a tool the basic SEIR framework may actually be. We go some way here to answering this question in the context of the 2014–2015 outbreak of Ebola in West Africa by comparing fits of an SEIR time-dependent transmission model to both country- and district-level weekly incidence data. Our novel approach in estimating the effective-size-of-the-populations-at-risk ( N eff ) and initial number of exposed individuals ( E 0 ) at both district and country levels, as well as the transmission function parameters, including a time-to-halving-the-force-of-infection ( t f/2 ) parameter, provides new insights into this Ebola outbreak. It reveals that the estimate R 0 ≈ 1.7 from country-level data appears to seriously underestimate R 0 ≈ 3.3 − 4.3 obtained from more spatially homogeneous district-level data. Country-level data also overestimate t f/2 ≈ 22 weeks, compared with 8–10 weeks from district-level data. Additionally, estimates for the duration of individual infectiousness is around two weeks from spatially inhomogeneous country-level data compared with 2.4–4.5 weeks from spatially more homogeneous district-level data, which estimates are rather high compared with most values reported in the literature. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

scholarly journals Human infectious disease burdens decrease with urbanization but not with biodiversity

2017 ◽  
Vol 372 (1722) ◽  
pp. 20160122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chelsea L. Wood ◽  
Alex McInturff ◽  
Hillary S. Young ◽  
DoHyung Kim ◽  
Kevin D. Lafferty
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Dilution Effect ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Over Time

Infectious disease burdens vary from country to country and year to year due to ecological and economic drivers. Recently, Murray et al. (Murray CJ et al . 2012 Lancet 380 , 2197–2223. ( doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61689-4 )) estimated country-level morbidity and mortality associated with a variety of factors, including infectious diseases, for the years 1990 and 2010. Unlike other databases that report disease prevalence or count outbreaks per country, Murray et al. report health impacts in per-person disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), allowing comparison across diseases with lethal and sublethal health effects. We investigated the spatial and temporal relationships between DALYs lost to infectious disease and potential demographic, economic, environmental and biotic drivers, for the 60 intermediate-sized countries where data were available and comparable. Most drivers had unique associations with each disease. For example, temperature was positively associated with some diseases and negatively associated with others, perhaps due to differences in disease agent thermal optima, transmission modes and host species identities. Biodiverse countries tended to have high disease burdens, consistent with the expectation that high diversity of potential hosts should support high disease transmission. Contrary to the dilution effect hypothesis, increases in biodiversity over time were not correlated with improvements in human health, and increases in forestation over time were actually associated with increased disease burden. Urbanization and wealth were associated with lower burdens for many diseases, a pattern that could arise from increased access to sanitation and healthcare in cities and increased investment in healthcare. The importance of urbanization and wealth helps to explain why most infectious diseases have become less burdensome over the past three decades, and points to possible levers for further progress in improving global public health. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications’.

scholarly journals Infectious disease burden in Gujarat (2005–2011): comparison of selected infectious disease rates with India

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 22838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veena Iyer ◽  
Gulrez Shah Azhar ◽  
Nandini Choudhury ◽  
Vidwan Singh Dhruwey ◽  
Russell Dacombe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Disease Rates

scholarly journals Municipal Wastewater Surveillance Revealed a High Community Disease Burden of a Rarely Reported and Possibly Subclinical Salmonella enterica Serovar Derby Strain

2020 ◽  
Vol 86 (17) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Diemert ◽  
Tao Yan
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Salmonella Enterica ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Municipal Wastewater ◽  
Enteric Pathogens ◽  
Whole Genome Sequencing Data ◽  
Subclinical Infection ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Sampling Campaign ◽  
Clinical Cases

ABSTRACT Clinical surveillance of enteric pathogens like Salmonella is integral to track outbreaks and endemic disease trends. However, clinic-centered disease monitoring biases toward detection of severe cases and underestimates the incidence of self-limiting gastroenteritis and asymptomatic strains. Monitoring pathogen loads and diversity in municipal wastewater (MW) can provide insight into asymptomatic or subclinical infections which are not reflected in clinical cases. Subclinical infection patterns may explain the unusual observation from a year-long sampling campaign in Hawaii: Salmonella enterica serovar Derby was the most abundant pulsotype in MW but was detected infrequently in clinics over the sampling period. Using whole-genome sequencing data of Salmonella isolates from MW and public databases, we demonstrate that the Derby serovar has lower virulence potential than other clinical serovars, particularly based on its reduced profile of genes linked with immune evasion and symptom production, suggesting its potential as a subclinical salmonellosis agent. Furthermore, MW had high abundance of a rare Derby sequence type (ST), ST-72 (rather than the more common ST-40). ST-72 isolates had higher frequencies of fimbrial adherence genes than ST-40 isolates; these are key virulence factors involved in colonization and persistence of infections. However, ST-72 isolates lack the Derby-specific Salmonella pathogenicity island 23 (SPI-23), which invokes host immune responses. In combination, ST-72’s genetic features may lead to appreciable infection rates without obvious symptom production, allowing for subclinical persistence in the community. This study demonstrated wastewater’s capability to provide community infectious disease information—such as background infection rates of subclinical enteric illness—which is otherwise inaccessible through clinical approaches. IMPORTANCE Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been conventionally used to analyze community health via the detection of chemicals, such as legal and illicit drugs; however, municipal wastewater contains microbiological determinants of health and disease as well, including enteric pathogens. Here, we demonstrate that WBE can be used to examine subclinical community salmonellosis patterns. Derby was the most abundant Salmonella serovar detected in Hawaii wastewater over a year-long sampling study, with few corresponding clinical cases. Comparative genomics analyses indicate that the normally rare strain of S. Derby found in wastewater has a unique combination of genes which allow it to persist as a subclinical infection without producing symptoms of severe gastroenteritis. This study shows that WBE can be used to explore trends in community infectious disease patterns which may not be reflected in clinical monitoring, shedding light on overall enteric disease burden and rates of asymptomatic cases.

Time trends, associations and global burden of intraocular foreign bodies

2020 ◽  
pp. bjophthalmol-2020-317063
Author(s):  
Guangming Jin ◽  
Minjie Zou ◽  
Yichi Zhang ◽  
Aiming Chen ◽  
Charlotte Aimee Young ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Trends ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Foreign Bodies ◽  
Vision Loss ◽  
Global Burden ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Disability Adjusted Life ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Disease Study

PurposeTo estimate the disease burden due to intraocular foreign bodies (IOFBs) and evaluate contributions of various risk factors to IOFB-associated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).MethodsGlobal, regional and country-level number, rate and age-standardised rate of DALYs due to IOFBs were acquired from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 database. The Human Development Index (HDI) and other region and country-level data were obtained from open databases. Time trends for number, rate and age-standardised rate of DALYs due to IOFBs were calculated. Regression analysis was used to evaluate associations between age-standardised rate of DALYs and potential predictors.ResultsGlobal DALYs due to IOFBs rose by 43.7% between 1990 (139 (95% CI 70.8 to 233) thousand) and 2017 (202 (95% CI 105 to 335) thousand). The DALY rate remained stable while the age-standardised rate decreased during this period. Higher disease burden due to IOFBs was associated with higher glaucoma prevalence (β=0.006, 95% CI 0.003 to 0.09, p<0.001), lower refractive error prevalence (β=−0.0005, 95% CI −0.0007 to −0.0002, p<0.001), and lower income (β=−0.020, 95% CI −0.035 to −0.006, p=0.007).ConclusionPredictors of a greater burden of IOFB disability generally point to lower socioeconomic level. The association with glaucoma may reflect a complication of IOFB, increasing risk of vision loss and disability.

scholarly journals Seventy-five years of estimating the force of infection from current status data

2009 ◽  
Vol 138 (6) ◽  
pp. 802-812 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. HENS ◽  
M. AERTS ◽  
C. FAES ◽  
Z. SHKEDY ◽  
O. LEJEUNE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Parvovirus B19 ◽  
Current Status Data ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Status Data ◽  
Notification Data ◽  
Case Notification ◽  
Key Parameter

SUMMARYThe force of infection, describing the rate at which a susceptible person acquires an infection, is a key parameter in models estimating the infectious disease burden, and the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of infectious disease prevention. Since Muench formulated the first catalytic model to estimate the force of infection from current status data in 1934, exactly 75 years ago, several authors addressed the estimation of this parameter by more advanced statistical methods, while applying these to seroprevalence and reported incidence/case notification data. In this paper we present an historical overview, discussing the relevance of Muench's work, and we explain the wide array of newer methods with illustrations on pre-vaccination serological survey data of two airborne infections: rubella and parvovirus B19. We also provide guidance on deciding which method(s) to apply to estimate the force of infection, given a particular set of data.

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