Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Issouf Samake ◽  
Evan C. Tanner
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Sustainability Of Public Debt

Is Bangladesh Rolling towards Debt Stress? An Exploration of Debt Sustainability in the Context of Recent External Financial Flows

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-173
Author(s):  
Debapriya Bhattacharya ◽  
Zeeshan Ashraf
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Bank Debt ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Alternative Future ◽  
Debt Stress ◽  
Sustainability Of Public Debt ◽  
Sustainability Framework

This article examines the sustainability of public debt in Bangladesh under alternative future scenarios based on simulation exercises for the period of FY2017 to FY2026. It adopts the debt-stabilizing primary balance approach (DPSBA) and International Monetary Fund/World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF). The findings of the former indicate that Bangladesh will be able to service its increasing public debt as long as its economic growth rate remains higher than the real interest rate payable on debt. Public debt also appears to be sustainable according to variables tested under the DSF. However, findings indicate that Bangladesh has been and would continue allocating an increasing share of its revenue to external debt repayment, creating a trade-off with investment in growth-oriented sectors. JEL Classification: H63, H68, H69, H81, G28

scholarly journals Shadow economy and public debt sustainability in Turkey

2007 ◽  
Vol 52 (173) ◽  
pp. 85-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yereli Burçin ◽  
Erdem Seçilmiş ◽  
Alparslan Başaran
Keyword(s):  
Economic System ◽  
Legal System ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
The Core ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Sustainability Of Public Debt ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the shadow economy and public debt in Turkey. We elaborate on the questions regarding the negative effects of shadow economy on the sustainability of public debt observing the estimates about the size of shadow economy in Turkey. In the light of some scholars? estimates, we re-evaluate the macroeconomic situation of Turkey. At the core of the study, we discuss how the government borrowing policies would differ if the shadow economy was included into the legal system. In order to examine the effects of shadow economy on sustainability, we use various sustainability indicators. There is a significant difference observed between the calculations which take into account the volume of shadow economy as a share of economic system and those that exclude shadow economy as an exogenous variable. .

The Analysis of 2008 Global Crisis in Terms of the Sustainability of Public Debt Stock and Budget Deficits of PIIGS Countries Panel Data Analysis

2015 ◽  
pp. 329-336
Author(s):  
Binhan Elif Yilmaz ◽  
Ferda Yerdelen Tatoglu ◽  
Sinan Ataer
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Economic Condition ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Sustainability Of Public Debt ◽  
Public Debts

In this chapter, we have focused the impacts of 2008 global crisis on the debt policies and the sustainability of debts in the PIIGS Countries. For that, the circumstances of the global crisis are examined, and the economic condition before the crisis is handled. As a main objective, the public debt indicators of PIIGS Countries are pointed out. The ratios and budget units are evaluated in terms of sustainability of debts. While making these evaluations and examinations our method was panel data analysis which can be found at the end of this chapter. In this method, public debt ratios and the sustainability conditions of the public debts in the PIIGS Countries are used as the determinants of public debts sustainability.

scholarly journals Vietnam’s future public debt: Prospects and implicantions

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 963-972
Author(s):  
Vi Hoang Dinh
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Current Trend ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Basic Scenario ◽  
Sustainability Of Public Debt ◽  
Public Debt Management ◽  
The Government

By the end of 2017, VietNam's public debt had reached 3.1 million billion VND; 2.2 times higher than the end of 2011 (1,393 million VND). The ratio of public debt/GDP of Vietnam has increased rapidly in recent year, since 2011. Specifically, within only 5 years from 2011 to 2015, the ratio of public debt / GDP of Vietnam increased by 12.2 percentage points, from 50% to 62.2%. Although, the Government of Vietnam has made strong commitments to control public debt. But the actual results are not as expected and tend to get worse. With the current trend of increasing the size and risk of public debt, it is necessary to forecast the public debt and make policy implications on public debt management. Therefore, the author analyzed the state of Vietnam's budget deficit and public debt. Since the author used dynamic models Cechetti, Mohanty and Zampolli (2010) to forecast Vietnam's public debt trends to 2030, with three scenarios: The basic scenario is that there is no improvement in the balance of budget the Basic scenario is no improvement in the basic budget balance, the Bad scenario is the high budget deficit. From there, implications on public debt management that aim to increase the sustainability of public debt in VietNam.

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