House Prices, Arrears and Possessions: A Three Equation Model for the UK

1993 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Breedon ◽  
Michael Joyce
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
The Uk

The Asymmetric Effects of Regional House Prices in the UK: New Evidence from Panel Quantile Regression Framework

2021 ◽  
pp. 232102222098054
Author(s):  
Panayiotis Tzeremes
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Housing Starts ◽  
Panel Quantile Regression ◽  
Linear Behaviour ◽  
Significant Performance ◽  
The Uk

This study unfurls the non-linear behaviour of regional house prices in the United Kingdom by employing quarterly observations spanning the period 1992Q1–2017Q4. Our enquiry aims at examining UK house prices within a multivariable framework and, more specifically, by employing panel quantile regression with fixed effect. In brief, the empirical findings obtained from these methodologies indicate that the UK house prices are influenced at lower and upper quantiles, and that precisely they are influenced by variables such as income, private sector housing starts and employment. We highly support that there is a strong heterogeneity among UK regions and that asymmetry may be one of the keys of the ripple effect. Particularly, the income shows a positively significant performance at lower and higher regional house prices. Moreover, the variables private sector housing starts and employment rate are statistically significant for house prices. Leveraging for first-time panel quantile regression for the case of regional house prices in the UK, policymakers will have a profound understanding of regional house prices. JEL Classifications: C22, R21, R31

scholarly journals Investigating the Links between UK House Prices and Share Prices with Copulas

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rakesh K. Bissoondeeal ◽  
Leonidas Tsiaras
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
National Level ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Left Tail ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Shared Characteristic

AbstractWe investigate the nonlinear links between the housing and stock markets in the UK using copulas. Our empirical analysis is conducted at both the national and regional levels. We also examine how closely London house prices are linked to those in other parts of the UK. We find that (i) the dependence between the different markets exhibits significant time-variation, (ii) at the national level, the relationship between house prices and the stock market is characterised by left tail dependence, i.e., they are more likely to crash, rather than boom, together, (iii) although left tail dependence with the stock market is a prominent feature of some regions, it is by no means a universally shared characteristic, (iv) the dependence between property prices in London and other parts of the UK displays widespread regional variations.

scholarly journals The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in the UK: a New Perspective

Economica ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 85 (337) ◽  
pp. 92-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivien Burrows
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Understanding Affordability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Meen ◽  
Christine Whitehead
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Home Ownership ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Household Formation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Developed World ◽  
The Impact

Affordability is, perhaps, the greatest housing problem facing households today, both in the UK and internationally. Even though most households are now well housed, hardship is disproportionately concentrated among low-income and younger households. Our failure to deal with their problems is what makes housing so frustrating. But, to improve outcomes, we have to understand the complex economic and political forces which underlie their continued prevalence. There are no costless solutions, but there are new policy directions that can be explored in addition to those that have dominated in recent years. The first, analytic, part of the book considers the factors that determine house prices and rents, household formation and tenure, housing construction and the roles played by housing finance and taxation. The second part turns to examine the impact of past policy and the possibilities for improvement - discussing supply and the impact of planning regulation, supply subsidies, subsidies to low-income tenants and attempts to increase home ownership. Rather than advocating a particular set of policies, the aim is to consider the balance of policies; the constraints under which housing policy operates; what can realistically be achieved; the structural changes that would need to occur; and the significant sacrifices that would have to be made by some groups if there are to be improvements for others. Our emphasis is on the UK but throughout the book we also draw on international experience and our conclusions have relevance to analysts and policy makers across the developed world.

The Hidden Half: Linking microbial communities to habitat condition and vegetation management in UK blanket bogs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Burn ◽  
Andreas Heinemeyer ◽  
Thorunn Helgason ◽  
David Glaves ◽  
Michael Morecroft
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Microbial Communities ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Vegetation Management ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Habitat Condition ◽  
Blanket Bog ◽  
The Uk

<p>Peatlands are globally valued for the ecosystem services they deliver, including water quality regulation and carbon sequestration. In the UK, blanket bogs are the main peatland habitat and previous work has linked blanket bog management, especially rotational burning of heather vegetation on grousemoors, to impacts on these ecosystem services. However, we still lack a mechanistic, process-level understanding of how peatland management and habitat status is linked to ecosystem service provision, which is mostly driven by soil microbial processes.</p><p>Here we examine bacterial and fungal communities across a spectrum of “intact” to degraded UK blanket bogs and under different vegetation management strategies. Sites included grousemoors under burnt and alternative mown or uncut management along with further locations including 'near intact', degraded and restored sites across a UK climatic gradient ranging from Exmoor (South UK), the Peak District (Mid) to the Flow Country (North). Moreover, an experiment was setup at the University of York with peat mesocosms taken from all sites and management/habitat conditions to allow a comparison between field and controlled conditions and assessing root-mediated processes. Using a structural equation model, we linked grousemoor management to specific fungal/bacterial functional groups, and have started to relate this to changes in water quality provision and carbon cycle aspects. This represents a significant step in the effort to use microbial communities as indicators of peatland habitat condition in UK upland blanket bogs. </p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Measuring the exposure of Black, Asian and other ethnic groups to Covid-infected neighbourhoods in English towns and cities.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Harris ◽  
Chris Brunsdon
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Linear Predictor ◽  
Random Intercept ◽  
Black Residents ◽  
Occupational And Environmental Exposure ◽  
Index Of Exposure ◽  
The Uk

Abstract Drawing on the work of The Doreen Lawrence Review – a report on the disproportionate impact of Covid-19 on Black, Asian and minority ethnic communities in the UK – this paper develops an index of exposure, measuring which ethnic groups have been most exposed to Covid-19 infected residential neighbourhoods during the first and second waves of the pandemic in England. The index is based on a Bayesian Poisson model with a random intercept in the linear predictor, allowing for extra-Poisson variation at neighbourhood and town/city scales. This permits within-city differences to be decoupled from broader regional trends in the disease. The research finds that members of ethnic minority groups tend to be living in areas with higher infection rates but also that the risk of exposure is distributed unevenly across these groups. Initially, in the first wave, the disease disproportionately affected Black residents. As the pandemic has progressed, especially the Pakistani but also the Bangladeshi and Indian groups have had the highest exposure. This higher exposure of the Pakistani group is not straightforwardly a function of neighbourhood deprivation because it is present across a range of average house prices. However, we find evidence to support the view, expressed in The Doreen Lawrence Review, that it is linked to occupational and environmental exposure, particularly residential density.

The Property Lobby

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bob Colenutt
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
Town Planning ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Housing Crisis ◽  
Government Grants ◽  
Radical Reform ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Holding Back ◽  
The Impact ◽  
House Building

Book Abstract: Despite countless reports and Government policy announcements on the housing crisis over decades, the scale and depth of the crisis continues. Homelessness, shortages of social housing, rents and house prices continue rise year on year. The word affordability has become meaningless. Land landowners and housebuilders and property investors have made huge profits out of this crisis. This book focusing in examples from London and Northamptonshire examines the power of the ‘finance-housebuilding ’ complex arguing that this property lobby is the main blockage for change and reform. It explains why the housing and planning system has become increasingly dysfunctional over the last 40 years accelerating with the impact of the 2008 Crash. The book gives examples of how the property lobby has been highly effective in manipulating Government housing and planning policy for its own benefit, to the detriment of those in housing need. It shows how the housebuilders business model, backed by Government grants and subsidies, has played a central role in perpetuating the crisis. The property lobby has succeeded in diverting attention from themselves onto the town planning system which has been scapegoated for holding back new house building. The result is that the housing crisis and the power behind it is hard baked into the UK economy. It must be addressed by radical reform of the property, planning and finance system. Without these reforms homelessness, poor housing, and lack of affordability will continue indefinitely.

scholarly journals Untangling the nonlinear “knots” of UK’s housing prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1083-1103
Author(s):  
Constantinos Alexiou ◽  
Sofoklis Vogiazas
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Uk

Purpose Housing prices in the UK offer an inspiring, yet a complex and under-explored research area. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the critical factors that affect UK’s housing prices. Design/methodology/approach The authors utilize the recently developed nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014) over the period 1969–2016. Findings The authors find that both the long-run and short-run impact of the price-to-rent (PTR) ratio and credit-to-GDP ratio on house prices (HP) is asymmetric whilst ambiguous results are established for mortgage rates, industrial production and equities. Apart from the novel framework of analysis, this study also establishes a positive association between HP and the PTR ratio which suggests a speculative behaviour and could imply the formation of a housing bubble. Originality/value It is the first study for the UK housing market that explores the underlying fundamental relationships by looking at nonlinearities hence, allowing HP to be tied by asymmetric relationships in the long as well as in the short run. Modelling the inherent nonlinearities enhances significantly the understanding of UK housing market which can prove useful for policymaking and forecasting purposes.

House prices and credit cycles: the case of Cyprus

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 539-550
Author(s):  
Dario Pontiggia ◽  
Petros Stavrou Sivitanides
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to assess whether the rapid accumulation of bank deposits before the global financial crisis and their subsequent drastic reduction was the main driving force of the Cyprus house price cycle over the period 2006–2015.Design/methodology/approachTo this aim we estimate a three-equation model in which house prices are determined by housing loans, among other factors, and housing loans are determined by bank deposits. All equations are estimated using partial adjustment model specifications.FindingsOur findings indicate that housing loans, which capture the effect of credit availability on housing demand, had the smallest effect on house prices, thus providing little support to our proposition of a deposits-driven cycle in house prices.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation of the study is the use of the housing loan stock instead of the actual volume of housing loans in each period due to lack of such data. As a result our econometric estimates may not accurately capture the magnitude of the effect of housing loans on house prices.Practical implicationsThe study has important practical implications for policy makers as it highlights the importance of availability of credit in supporting effective demand for housing during periods of economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the key role of house price increases in combination with the collateral effect in driving the house price cycle.Originality/valueThis is among the few studies internationally and the first study in Cyprus that attempts to link econometrically the credit and house price cycles that were caused by the global financial crisis.

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