Meeting or Beating Analyst Expectations in the Post-Scandals World: Changes in Stock Market Rewards and Managerial Actions

PurposeMuch in accounting research depends upon equity valuation. Too often, what the stock of publicly traded companies trade at is taken at its face value. Knowing that valuation is a function of performance relative to consensus security analyst expectations, more needs to be known about how these expectations are created and changed. The paper aims to assert that the guidance provided by top-level company management is important to the work product of analysts. The paper develops information from managers involved in these interactions.Design/methodology/approachSemi-structured interviews were conducted with 31 high-level executives employed by large USA companies in several industries. What those companies provided was interpreted through the theoretical lens of institutional theory and amounts to a qualitative content analysis approach to the subject.FindingsThe authors find that institutional theory well describes the important features of analyst guidance. Participants are aware of the broad societal interest that exists in the outcome of the guidance process. The participants accept the need for independent analyst opinions about their companies and their future prospects. In many ways, executives provide analysts more than just raw information and employ strategic structuring for analysts to produce expectations that will allow their companies a favorable pathway to future success as such is judged by the markets. The result is understood as being in the best interests of all market participants, even if it disproportionately benefits current corporate leadership.Research limitations/implicationsResults are dependent upon the interview process, needing the correct questions to be asked and the willingness of interviewees to speak their lived truth. The paper calls into question traditional capital markets studies that evaluate quantitative relationships between projected accounting balances and subsequent stock market prices as a literal truth or as the result of scientific calculation.Practical implicationsMarket participants should be somewhat more skeptical about companies that are routinely able to meet analyst expectations. To a large extent, such displays do not just happen but instead are manufactured to take place by virtual of a careful dance that is mindful of excesses on several sides.Social implicationsThe antagonistic interests of two important groups in the stock market is actually an unrecognized symbiotic dependency that prioritizes continued permission.Originality/valueThe accounting literature is very dependent on the work product of analysts. This is a rare opportunity to peak behind the curtain of their expertise in a critical fashion. The paper breaks ranks with the literature by trying to understand the thinking behind the narratives of capital market participants.

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Meeting or Beating Analyst Expectations in the Post-Scandals World: Changes in Stock Market Rewards and Managerial Actions

Contemporary Accounting Research ◽

10.1506/car.25.4.5 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 25 (4) ◽

pp. 1067-1098 ◽

Cited By ~ 111

Author(s):

Kevin Koh ◽

Dawn A. Matsumoto ◽

Shivaram Rajgopal

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Analyst Expectations

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Predicting Stock Market Performance

Journal of Individual Differences ◽

10.1027/1614-0001/a000330 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-10

Author(s):

Thomas Plieger ◽

Thomas Grünhage ◽

Éilish Duke ◽

Martin Reuter

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Risk Taking ◽

Life Stress ◽

Price Volatility ◽

Individual Characteristics ◽

Self Report ◽

Financial Behavior ◽

Market Simulation ◽

Stock Market Performance ◽

Risk Taking Behavior

Abstract. Gender and personality traits influence risk proneness in the context of financial decisions. However, most studies on this topic have relied on either self-report data or on artificial measures of financial risk-taking behavior. Our study aimed to identify relevant trading behaviors and personal characteristics related to trading success. N = 108 Caucasians took part in a three-week stock market simulation paradigm, in which they traded shares of eight fictional companies that differed in issue price, volatility, and outcome. Participants also completed questionnaires measuring personality, risk-taking behavior, and life stress. Our model showed that being male and scoring high on self-directedness led to more risky financial behavior, which in turn positively predicted success in the stock market simulation. The total model explained 39% of the variance in trading success, indicating a role for other factors in influencing trading behavior. Future studies should try to enrich our model to get a more accurate impression of the associations between individual characteristics and financially successful behavior in context of stock trading.

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