Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: An Empirical Exercise on the Indian Economy

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Kanagasabapathy ◽  
Rajan Goyal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Yield Spread ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Leading Indicator

scholarly journals In Search of Leading Indicator Property of Yield Spread for India: An Approach Based on Quantile and Wavelet Regression

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arif Billah Dar ◽  
Firdous Ahmad Shah
Keyword(s):  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Yield Spread ◽  
Predictive Information ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Wavelet Regression ◽  
Leading Indicator

The leading indicator ability of yield spread for future output growth and inflation is tested for India. Using the yields on securities with maturities ten years and three months to construct yield spread, we study the predictive power of yield spread for output growth and inflation. Our results based on regression of future inflation and output on yield spreads indicate that there is no information in the yield spread about future economic activity and inflation in India. Further, the predictive power of yield spread is analyzed over different quantiles of inflation and output growth using quantile regression; we find that there is again no evidence of predictive information in the yield spreads. Using multiscale wavelet based regression, predictive power is however unveiled at higher time scales for output growth only.

scholarly journals A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread

2002 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 340-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. (James Douglas) Hamilton ◽  
Dong Heon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Yield Spread

The Indian Economy and the British Empire in the Company Period: Some additional reflections around an essay by David Washbrook

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 375-398
Author(s):  
CLAUDE MARKOVITS
Keyword(s):  
British Empire ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
British India ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
History Of ◽  
Actual Contribution ◽  
Point Of Departure ◽  
Indian Blood

AbstractTaking as its point of departure David Washbrook's essay ‘The Indian Economy and the British Empire’, this article takes a more detailed look at some episodes in the history of British India in the era of the Company Raj, with a view to placing them within a broader imperial framework, as advocated by Washbrook. The first part of the article examines, through an array of case studies, the actual contribution made by the Company to ‘global’ British expansion, concluding that it invested a lot of (Indian) blood and money in ventures from which it derived little benefit, as in the case of the expeditions to Manila (1762), Ceylon (1795), and Java (1811). It is shown that the Company's interests were ultimately sacrificed to the necessity of maintaining the European balance of power through consideration of the colonial interests of minor European powers such as Portugal or the Netherlands. While the Company saw its interests thus overlooked in the ‘global’ imperial arena, it could not find compensation in increased economic activity in India itself. Although the compulsions of ‘military-fiscalism’ largely explain such an outcome, we should not lose sight of the role of Indian agency in limiting the Company's options, as is shown by a rapid look at the history of both labour and capital markets, which the Company did not succeed in bending completely to its needs.

scholarly journals RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS AS LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR

2018 ◽  
pp. 206-210
Author(s):  
LIA TOTLADZE
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Methodological Issues ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Leading Economic Indicators ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Selection Of

It is important to predict trends of economic development for any country. Researchers and practitioners use different ways for evaluation and forecasting economic activity. Identification of indicators, which change impact on the economy in general, is one of the widespread methods. The most appropriate tools to solve this problem are the leading indicators and indexes based on leading indicators. The selection of indicators depends on the specificity of the country’s economy. Among the leading economic indicators is the dynamics of applications for the Building permissions for private houses, and can also be successfully use residential transactions. Depending on the above, the paper deals the aspects of calculation of leading economic indicators. This paper analyses some aspects of the effectiveness of indicator for predicting economic activity and describes the methodological issues forward leading indicators. Particular attention is paid to analysis of residential transactions dynamics as a leading indicator as in theoretical as in practical terms. The article highlights the peculiarities of its implementation in Georgia.

scholarly journals The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator: A Less Distorted Mirror

2019 ◽  
Vol 2018 (055r1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric C. Engstrom ◽  
◽  
Steven A. Sharpe ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Yield Spread ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Near Term

Does the Yield Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?

2020 ◽  
pp. 189-203
Author(s):  
Catherine Bonser-Neal ◽  
Timothy R. Morley
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Yield Spread
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