scholarly journals Separating the Effects of Asymmetric Incentives and Inefficient Use of Information on Financial Analysts' Consensus Earnings Forecast Errors

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanimir Markov ◽  
Min Yen Tan
Keyword(s):  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors

Refining financial analysts’ forecasts by predicting earnings forecast errors

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 256-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatiana Fedyk
Keyword(s):  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Autoregressive Process ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
Prior Literature

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the way serial correlation in quarterly earnings forecast errors varies with firm and analyst attributes such as the firm’s industry and the analyst’s experience and brokerage house affiliation. Prior research on financial analysts’ quarterly earnings forecasts has documented serial correlation in forecast errors. Design/methodology/approach Finding that serial correlation in forecast errors is significant and seemingly independent of firm and analyst attributes, the consensus forecast errors are modeled as an autoregressive process. The model of forecast errors that best fits the data is AR(1), and the obtained autoregressive coefficients are used to predict consensus forecast errors. Findings Modeling the consensus forecast errors as an autoregressive process, the present study predicts future consensus forecast errors and proposes a series of refinements to the consensus. Originality/value These refinements were not presented in prior literature and can be useful to financial analysts and investors.

The Association between Unsystematic Security Returns and the Magnitude of Earnings Forecast Errors

1979 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 316 ◽  
Author(s):  
William H. Beaver ◽  
Roger Clarke ◽  
William F. Wright
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Security Returns

Regulation FD and the Financial Information Environment: Early Evidence

2003 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Heflin ◽  
K. R. Subramanyam ◽  
Yuan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Financial Information ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
The Public ◽  
Fair Disclosure ◽  
Regulation Fd

On October 23, 2000, the SEC implemented Regulation FD (Fair Disclosure), which prohibits firms from privately disclosing value-relevant information to select securities markets professionals without simultaneously disclosing the same information to the public. We examine whether Regulation FD's prohibition of selective disclosure impairs the flow of financial information to the capital markets prior to earnings announcements. After implementation of FD, we find (1) improved informational efficiency of stock prices prior to earnings announcements, as evidenced by smaller deviations between pre-and post-announcement stock prices; (2) no reliable evidence of change in analysts' earnings forecast errors or dispersion; and (3) a substantial increase in the volume of firms' voluntary, forward-looking, earnings-related disclosures. Overall, we find no evidence Regulation FD impaired the information available to investors prior to earnings announcements, and some of our evidence is consistent with improvement.

Do Supplementary Sales Forecasts Increase the Credibility of Financial Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts?

2010 ◽  
Vol 85 (6) ◽  
pp. 2047-2074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund C. Keung
Keyword(s):  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Earnings Persistence ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Time Effects ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
Sales Forecast ◽  
Sales Forecasts ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Incremental Information

ABSTRACT: This study examines whether the market reacts more strongly to earnings forecast revisions when financial analysts supplement their earnings forecasts with sales forecasts. I find that earnings forecast revisions supplemented with sales forecast revisions have a greater impact on security prices than do stand-alone earnings forecast revisions, controlling for the incremental information content in sales forecasts. Supplemented earnings forecasts are more accurate ex post, controlling for other individual analyst characteristics. Results are robust to controlling for earnings persistence and time effects. Taken as a whole, financial analysts are more likely to supplement their earnings forecasts with sales forecasts when they have better information. Supplementary sales forecasts appear to lend credibility to earnings forecasts because financial analysts provide sales forecasts when they are more informed.

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