Dead Reckoning: Demographic Determinants of the Accuracy of Mortality Risk Perceptions

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jahn Karl Hakes ◽  
W. Kip Kip Viscusi
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Dead Reckoning

Biased Lung Cancer Risk Perceptions: Smokers are Misinformed

2018 ◽  
Vol 238 (5) ◽  
pp. 395-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas R. Ziebarth
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Cancer Risk ◽  
Cancer Diagnosis ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Lung Cancer Risk ◽  
Lifetime Risk ◽  
Lung Cancer Diagnosis ◽  
Cancer Risk Perceptions ◽  
Overall Mortality

Abstract This paper empirically investigates biased beliefs about the risks of smoking. First, it confirms the established tendency of people to overestimate the lifetime risk of a smoker to contract lung cancer. In this paper’s survey, almost half of all respondents overestimate this risk. However, 80% underestimate lung cancer deadliness. In reality, less than one in five patients survive five years after a lung cancer diagnosis. Due to the broad underestimation of the lung cancer deadliness, the lifetime risk of a smoker to die of lung cancer is underestimated by almost half of all respondents. Smokers who do not plan to quit are significantly more likely to underestimate this overall mortality risk.

scholarly journals COVID-19: the relationship between perceptions of risk and behaviours during lockdown

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Douglas Brown ◽  
Lynne Coventry ◽  
Gillian V Pepper
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Health Behaviours ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
Extrinsic Mortality ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Threat To Life

Background Understanding COVID-19 risk perceptions and their impact on behaviour can improve the effectiveness of public health strategies in the future. Prior evidence suggests that, when people perceive uncontrollable risks to their health, they are less likely to make efforts to protect their health in those ways which they can control (e.g. through diet, exercise, and limiting alcohol intake). It is therefore important to understand the extent to which the threat of COVID-19 is perceived to be an uncontrollable risk, and to assess whether this perceived risk is associated with differences in health behaviour. MethodsWe surveyed a nationally representative sample of 496 participants, shortly after the peak of the pandemic in the UK. We collected data to assess people’s perceptions of COVID-19-related risk, and how these perceptions were associated with behaviours. We examined self-reported adherence to behaviours recommended by the UK Government and National Health Service to prevent the spread of the virus, as well as more general health behaviours. We predicted that increased perceived extrinsic mortality risk (the portion of a person’s mortality risk which they perceive to be uncontrollable) would disincentivise healthy behaviour. ResultsPerceived threat to life was found to be the most consistent predictor of reported adherence to measures designed to prevent the spread of infection. Perceived extrinsic mortality risk was found to have increased due to the pandemic, and was also associated with lower reported adherence to Government advice on diet and physical activity, as well as smoking. ConclusionsOur findings suggest that promoting a message that highlights threat to life may be effective in raising levels of adherence to measures of infection control, but may also have unintended consequences, leading to a reduction in health-promoting behaviours. We suggest that messages that highlight threat to life should be accompanied by statements of efficacy, and that messages evoking feelings of concern for others may also be effective in promoting compliance with anti-infection measures.

Mortality risk perceptions: A Bayesian reassessment

1998 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-184
Author(s):  
J.H. Hakes ◽  
W. Viscusi
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions

scholarly journals COVID-19: the relationship between perceptions of risk and behaviours during lockdown

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Brown ◽  
Lynne Coventry ◽  
Gillian Pepper
Keyword(s):  
Infection Control ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Health Behaviours ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Extrinsic Mortality ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Threat To Life ◽  
Healthy Behaviour

Abstract Aim Understanding COVID-19 risk perceptions and their impact on behaviour can improve the effectiveness of public health strategies. Prior evidence suggests that, when people perceive uncontrollable risks to their health, they are less likely to engage in healthful behaviour. This article aims to understand the extent to which COVID-19 is perceived as an uncontrollable risk, and to assess whether this perceived risk is associated with health behaviour. Subject and methods We surveyed a nationally representative sample of 496 participants during the first UK lockdown. We assessed perceptions of COVID-19-related risk, self-reported adherence to infection control measures recommended by the UK Government, and general health behaviours. We predicted that increased perceived extrinsic mortality risk (the portion of mortality risk perceived to be uncontrollable) would disincentivise healthy behaviour. Results Perceived threat to life was the most consistent predictor of reported adherence to infection control measures. Perceived extrinsic mortality risk was found to have increased due to the pandemic, and was associated with lower reported adherence to Government advice on diet, physical activity, and smoking. Conclusions Our findings suggest that health messages that highlight threat to life may be effective in increasing adherence to infection control, but may also lead to a reduction in health-promoting behaviours. We suggest that messages that highlight threat to life should be accompanied by statements of efficacy. Further, messages evoking feelings of concern for others may be effective in promoting compliance with anti-infection measures, without the potential for the unwelcome side-effect of discouraging healthy behaviour.

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