Effects of Macro Uncertainty on Mean Expectation and Subjective Uncertainty: Evidence from Households and Professional Forecasters

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giulia Piccillo ◽  
Poramapa Poonpakdee
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Uncertainty

“World of Uncertainty” Game for Decision-Makers

2012 ◽  
pp. 46-51
Author(s):  
Jyldyz Tabyldy Kyzy
Keyword(s):  
Learning Effect ◽  
Computer Game ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Online Game ◽  
Subjective Uncertainty ◽  
The World ◽  
More Care ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Explicit Feedback

Decisions on both personal and public matters benefit significantly if uncertainties and risks are handled with more care and accuracy. It is crucial to refine and express degrees of confidence and subjective probabilities of various outcomes. Experience, intuition, and skills help make the most of uncertain information. This paper proposes a concept and design of a computer game which aims to train and enhance some of these skills. It is an online game, which allows players to indicate their subjective uncertainty on a numerical scale and to receive explicit feedback. The accuracy of the player is conditioned and motivated by the incentives based on proper scoring rules. The game aims to train accuracy and better calibration in estimating probabilities and expressing degrees of confidence. The “World of Uncertainty” (n.d.) project researched the learning effect of the game and its impact on players’ attitudes towards uncertainty. The concept of this game can be adopted as part of an advanced and complex game in the future.

Understanding the Impact of Expert Estimation Related Uncertainties on Architecture Generation and Supplier Identification

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Ye ◽  
Marija Jankovic ◽  
Gül E. Kremer
Keyword(s):  
New Technology ◽  
System Architectures ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Early Design ◽  
Subjective Uncertainty ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Expert Estimation ◽  
Architecture Generation ◽  
Account Due ◽  
The Impact

The Architecture & Supplier Identification Tool (ASIT) is a design support tool enabling generation of system architectures in early design with consideration of supplier identification and evaluation. Several types of uncertainties have been considered in ASIT in order to estimate the overall uncertainty of the architectures. However, the subjective uncertainty caused by expert estimation had not been taken into account. Due to new technology integration and lack of information in early design, expert estimation is commonly used, which is also the case in the ASIT. As a considerable source of uncertainty, the consideration of subjective uncertainty may significantly influence the ASIT results, thus impacting the reliability of ASIT. This paper aims at understanding the sensitivity of the ASIT when subjective uncertainties are taken into account. The type-1 fuzzy sets and the 2-tuple fuzzy linguistic representation are selected to represent subjective uncertainties. A powertrain case study has been used to compare the results and test the sensitivity of ASIT. The comparison shows that the subjective uncertainty does not considerably influence ASIT results, and the ASIT is robust.

scholarly journals Measuring IRB Regulatory Compliance: Development, Testing, and Use of the National Cancer Institute StART Tool

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Rooney ◽  
Laura Covington ◽  
Andrea Dedier ◽  
Birdena Samuel
Keyword(s):  
National Cancer Institute ◽  
Regulatory Compliance ◽  
Institutional Review Boards ◽  
Federal Mandates ◽  
Subjective Uncertainty ◽  
Research Protocols ◽  
Institutional Review ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Background Data ◽  
And Control

Institutional review boards (IRBs) have been criticized for overstepping their authority by requiring research protocols to meet requirements that go beyond regulatory approval criteria. The youngest National Cancer Institute (NCI) central IRB (CIRB), the Cancer Prevention and Control (CPC) CIRB, was studied with the NCI Stipulation Analysis Review Tool (StART), which categorized 1,049 stipulations in 51 determination letters covering 30 approved protocols. NCI StART reduced the potential for subjective uncertainty in assessing the wide range of content in the stipulations. The tool determined the board functioned in accordance with federal mandates, with 80% of rendered stipulations aligning with IRB approval criteria. A complementary article provides background data and findings from the first 3 years’ experience of the CPC CIRB.

Practice Effects for Auditory Localization: A Test of a Differentiation Theory of Perceptual Learning and Development

1976 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 647-653 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme Russell
Keyword(s):  
Perceptual Learning ◽  
Auditory Localization ◽  
Localization Task ◽  
Learning And Development ◽  
Apparent Contradiction ◽  
Subjective Uncertainty ◽  
Related Information ◽  
Differentiation Theory ◽  
Development Support ◽  
Affect Transfer

Practice and transfer of practice in an auditory localization task were observed for three different information conditions (normal, transformed and reduced) to examine four aspects of Gibson's (1969) differentiation theory of perceptual learning and development. Support was found for the propositions that: (i) dimensions of difference, rather than prototypes, are learned; (ii) specificity is a more appropriate response measure than number of correct responses; (iii) perceptual learning will occur regardless of whether feedback is given or not; (iv) transfer of practice will be greater if dimensions of difference (as opposed to prototypes) are learned. It was also found that feedback during practice did not affect transfer. In an apparent contradiction though, specificity increased in the absence of dimensions of difference. This increase was interpreted as being associated with the detection of non-task-related information and was seen as lending support to Gibson's hypothesis that, perceptual learning is motivated by intrinsic cognitive drive and is terminated by a reduction in subjective uncertainty.

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