Probabilistic Approach to Multi-Stage Supplier Evaluation: Confidence Level Measurement in Ordinal Priority Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amin Mahmoudi ◽  
Saad Ahmed Javed
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Level ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Supplier Evaluation ◽  
Level Measurement ◽  
Multi Stage

scholarly journals A new look at multi-stage models of cancer incidence

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyler Lian ◽  
Rick Durrett
Keyword(s):  
Branching Process ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Process Models ◽  
Hyperbolic Partial Differential Equations ◽  
Main Method ◽  
Stage Models ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Cancer Initiation ◽  
Seer Data ◽  
The One

AbstractMulti-stage models have long been used in combination with SEER data to make inferences about the mechanisms underlying cancer initiation. The main method for studying these models mathematically has been the computation of generating functions by solving hyperbolic partial differential equations. Here, we analyze these models using a probabilistic approach similar to the one Durrett and Moseley [7] used to study branching process models of cancer. This more intuitive approach leads to simpler formulas and new insights into the behavior of these models. Unfortunately, the examples we consider suggest that fitting multi-stage models has very little power to make inferences about the number of stages unless parameters are constrained to take on realistic values.

scholarly journals Probabilistic estimation of glacier volume and glacier bed topography: the Andean glacier Huayna West

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 3931-3967
Author(s):  
V. Moya Quiroga ◽  
A. Mano ◽  
Y. Asaoka ◽  
K. Udo ◽  
S. Kure ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Level ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Glacier Retreat ◽  
Probabilistic Estimation ◽  
Bed Topography ◽  
Plastic Behaviour ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Optimal Approach ◽  
Basal Shear ◽  
Lognormal Probability

Abstract. Glacier retreat will increase sea level and decrease fresh water availability. Glacier retreat will also induce morphologic and hydrologic changes due to the formation of glacial lakes. Hence, it is important not only to estimate glacier volume, but also to understand the spatial distribution of ice thickness. There are several approaches for estimating glacier volume and glacier thickness. However, it is not possible to select an optimal approach that works for all locations. It is important to analyse the relation between the different glacier volume estimations and to provide confidence intervals of a given solution. The present study presents a probabilistic approach for estimating glacier volume and its confidence interval. Glacier volume of the Andean glacier Huayna West was estimated according to different scaling relations. Besides, glacier volume and glacier thickness were estimated assuming plastic behaviour. The present study also analysed the influence of considering a variable glacier density due to ice firn densification. It was found that the different estimations are described by a lognormal probability distribution. Considering a confidence level of 90%, the estimated glacier volume is 0.0275 km3 ± 0.0052 km3. Considering a confidence level of 90%, the estimated glacier thickness is 24.98 m with a confidence of ±4.67 m. The mean basal shear stress considering plastic behaviour is 82.5 kPa. The reconstruction of glacier bed topography showed the future formation of a glacier lake with a maximum depth of 32 m.

scholarly journals Tolerance Volume Due to Joint Variable Errors in Robots

1989 ◽  
Vol 111 (4) ◽  
pp. 597-604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Woo-Jong Lee ◽  
T. C. Woo
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Level ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Automatic Generation ◽  
Linear Mapping ◽  
Precision Engineering ◽  
Probability Of Error ◽  
Robot Configuration ◽  
Joint Variable ◽  
Locational Uncertainty

The locational uncertainty of a manipulator is largely due to the errors of the joint variables. But these errors cannot be easily compensated for because they are dependent on the operation (i.e., robot-configuration). Motivated by the need to conduct precision engineering and the intellectual curiosity of geometric uncertainty, the probabilistic tolerance volume due to joint errors is investigated. By defining the locational uncertainty in Cartesian space as a tolerance volume, the investigation focuses on the automatic generation of the tolerance volume from a given confidence level. For this purpose, the linear mapping form Δq space to Δd space through Jacobian matrix is analyzed probabilistically. Probabilistic approach is advantageous since the tolerance volume by the deterministic approach is found to be unnecessarily large. With the assumption of normality of joint variables, this paper begins with the computation of the confidence level for a given tolerance volume. A fast analytic procedure, which gives a considerable time-reduction compared to the commonly used Monte-Carlo simulation, is presented. Based on the monotonic relation between confidence level and tolerance volume, the procedure is used to generate the tolerance volume covering the desired confidence level. The scheme is tested with the six degrees-of-freedom Stanford manipulator and shows a significant (more than 5 times) reduction in the size of the tolerance volume with a 0.3 percent probability of error.

scholarly journals Analisis Produksi dan Pendaptan Usahatani Kakao di Kecamtan Trienggadeng Kabupaten Pidie Jaya

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 200-205
Author(s):  
Irhamna Irhamna ◽  
Teuku Fauzi ◽  
Romano Romano
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Level ◽  
Linear Analysis ◽  
T Test ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Central Production ◽  
Research Population ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
The Government ◽  
Cocoa Farmers

ABSTRAK  Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi produksi usahatani kakao di kecamatan Trienggadeng dan untuk mengetahui tingkat pendapatan petani kakao di Kecamatan Trienggadeng. Lokasi penelitian ini dilakukan di Kecamatan Trienggadeng Kabupaten Pidie Jaya. Lokasi ini ditentukan denganpertimbanganbahwa Kecamatan Trienggadeng merupakan salah satu sentraproduksi kakao di Kabupaten Pidie Jaya.Ruang lingkup penelitian terbataspada analisis produksi dan pendapatan usahatani kakao di Kecamatan Trienggadeng Kabupaten Pidie Jaya. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah seluruh petani yang berusahatani kakao di Kecamatan Trienggadeng, di fokuskan pada tiga desa yang terdiri dari Desa Reuseb, Desa Dee, dan Desa Teumanah. Penentuan ini dilakukan dengan sengaja, dimana tiga desa tersebut merupakan sentral produksi di Kecamatan Trienggadeng. Jumah petani dari 3 desa sebanyak 196 petani. sampel dipilih secara multi stage sampling. Sedangkan besarnya sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah 25% dari total populasi penelitian yaitu 49 nelayan. Model analisis untuk hipotesis pertama digunakan rumus pendapatan yaitu µ          = TR – TC dan untuk hipotesis kedua di gunakan analisis linear berganda. Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan bahwa modal berpengaruh nyata (signifikan) terhadap produksi usahatani kakao, hal ini dapat dikemukakan bedasarkan hasil uji-t yang menunjukkan tcari = 2,219   ttabel =  2,014. Luas lahan berpengaruh nyata (signifikan) terhadap produksi usahatani kakao, hal ini dapat di kemukakan berdasarkan hasil uji-t yang menunjukkan tcari = 2,127   ttabel =  2,014. Tenaga kerja berpengaruh nyata (signifikan)  terhadap pendapatan usahatani kakao, hal ini dapat di kemukakan berdasarkan hasil uji-t yang menunjukkan tcari = 2,319  ttabel = 2,014. Modal, luas lahan, tenaga kerja adalah berpengaruh nyata secara serempak terhadap produksi usahatani kakao, dibuktikan dengan nilai Fcari = 418,300 Ftabel = 2,42 pada tingkat kepercayaan 95% (α = 0,05). Pendapatan usahatani kakao lebih besar dibandingkan  Upah Minimum Provinsi (UMP) yaitu Rp. 2.420.265 sedangkan UMP yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah Aceh tahun 2016 adalah sebesar Rp. 2.100.000.PRODUCTION ANALYSIS AND COCOA HEALTH INCOME IN KECAMATAN TRIENGGADENG  PIDIE JAYA DISTRICTABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that affect the production of cocoa farming in Trienggadeng district and to determine the level of income of cocoa farmers in District Trienggadeng. The location of this research was conducted in District Trienggadeng Pidie Jaya District. This location is determined with the consideration that District Trienggadeng is one of cocoa production centers in Pidie Jaya Regency. The scope of the study is limited to the analysis of production and income of cocoa farming in Trienggadeng Sub-district of Pidie Jaya Regency. The population in this study is all farmers who have cacao farms in Trienggadeng Sub-district, focusing on three villages consisting of Reuseb Village, Dee Village, and Teumanah Village. This determination is done intentionally, where the three villages are the central production in District Trienggadeng. There are 196 farmers from 3 villages. samples were chosen in multi stage sampling. While the sample size used in this study is 25% of the total research population of 49 fishermen. The model of analysis for the first hypothesis used the income formula is μ = TR - TC and for the second hypothesis is used multiple linear analysis. Result of research indicate that capital have significant effect to cocoa farming production, this can be based on t-test which shows = 2,219 ttable = 2,014. Land area significantly (significant) effect on cocoa farming production, it can be suggested based on t-test which shows = 2,127 ttable = 2,014. Workforce has significant (significant) effect to cocoa farming income, it can be suggested based on t-test which shows = 2,319 ttable = 2,014. Capital, land area, labor is a significant effect simultaneously on cocoa farming production, evidenced by the value Fcari = 418,300 Ftable = 2.42 at 95% confidence level (α = 0.05). The income of cocoa farming is higher than the Provincial Minimum Wage (UMP) which is Rp. 2.420.265 while the UMP set by the government of Aceh in 2016 is Rp. 2.100.000.ABSTRAK  Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi produksi usahatani kakao di kecamatan Trienggadeng dan untuk mengetahui tingkat pendapatan petani kakao di Kecamatan Trienggadeng. Lokasi penelitian ini dilakukan di Kecamatan Trienggadeng Kabupaten Pidie Jaya. Lokasi ini ditentukan denganpertimbanganbahwa Kecamatan Trienggadeng merupakan salah satu sentraproduksi kakao di Kabupaten Pidie Jaya.Ruang lingkup penelitian terbataspada analisis produksi dan pendapatan usahatani kakao di Kecamatan Trienggadeng Kabupaten Pidie Jaya. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah seluruh petani yang berusahatani kakao di Kecamatan Trienggadeng, di fokuskan pada tiga desa yang terdiri dari Desa Reuseb, Desa Dee, dan Desa Teumanah. Penentuan ini dilakukan dengan sengaja, dimana tiga desa tersebut merupakan sentral produksi di Kecamatan Trienggadeng. Jumah petani dari 3 desa sebanyak 196 petani. sampel dipilih secara multi stage sampling. Sedangkan besarnya sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah 25% dari total populasi penelitian yaitu 49 nelayan. Model analisis untuk hipotesis pertama digunakan rumus pendapatan yaitu µ          = TR – TC dan untuk hipotesis kedua di gunakan analisis linear berganda. Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan bahwa modal berpengaruh nyata (signifikan) terhadap produksi usahatani kakao, hal ini dapat dikemukakan bedasarkan hasil uji-t yang menunjukkan tcari = 2,219   ttabel =  2,014. Luas lahan berpengaruh nyata (signifikan) terhadap produksi usahatani kakao, hal ini dapat di kemukakan berdasarkan hasil uji-t yang menunjukkan tcari = 2,127   ttabel =  2,014. Tenaga kerja berpengaruh nyata (signifikan)  terhadap pendapatan usahatani kakao, hal ini dapat di kemukakan berdasarkan hasil uji-t yang menunjukkan tcari = 2,319  ttabel = 2,014. Modal, luas lahan, tenaga kerja adalah berpengaruh nyata secara serempak terhadap produksi usahatani kakao, dibuktikan dengan nilai Fcari = 418,300 Ftabel = 2,42 pada tingkat kepercayaan 95% (α = 0,05). Pendapatan usahatani kakao lebih besar dibandingkan  Upah Minimum Provinsi (UMP) yaitu Rp. 2.420.265 sedangkan UMP yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah Aceh tahun 2016 adalah sebesar Rp. 2.100.000.

Planning and Search in Multi-Stage Risky Decision Making

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared Hotaling ◽  
Jerry Busemeyer ◽  
Richard Shiffrin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risky Decision Making ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Multi Stage
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